Note From Kevin: We’ve got Keagan joining us this week to provide DraftKings NFL Week 3 picks. Keagan is a big football fan, and an avid DFS player that I think will have some sharp picks for us weekly. DraftKings.com is my favorite daily fantasy site out there – sign up if you haven’t already!
Alright take it away with your picks Keagan…
MIA – Ryan Tannehill ($6200) – Facing a Cleveland team that is just a dumpster fire right now, Tannehill should be in a great position to put up solid numbers. Although the over/under is only at 42 right now, the Dolphins are expected to put up 26.25 points which is currently the 4th most. This Cleveland defense is going to be a popular option to pick on this year and in their two games this season they’ve given up an average of 290 yards and 2 touchdowns to Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco. Tannehill is a better quarterback than both of those two, has better weapons around him and he’s at home. Oh and did I mention that their running back situation is a mess, lending even more points to Tannehill and his ability to run (had 6 rushes for 35 yards last week). He’s my favorite play this week and can warrant ownership in cash as well at tournaments.
SD – Philip Rivers ($6700) – Rivers is priced as the 12th ranked quarterback, but has the 6th highest ceiling on FantasyLabs this week. Going against a putrid Colts defense in a dome sets up for a great spot for Rivers who threw for 4 touchdowns last week against the Jaguars. The last time the Colts played here they got absolutely shredded by Matt Stafford and the Lions. I expect the Chargers to put up a lot of points here as well considering the vegas total is at 51.5, the second highest this week.
*Tournament* ARI – Carson Palmer ($7200) – Being priced near guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan means that Carson Palmer is more than likely going to be overlooked and low-owned. People somehow still think the Buffalo Bills have a stellar defense which is far from the case. They rank in the bottom third of several major defensive categories including through the air. They’re just not a good defense and we all need to realize it. Ryan Fitz torched them last week when he threw for 374 yards, having his two stud receivers over 100 yards and almost had a third. Palmer has the same amount of weapons as Fitz, but five notches better. Carson looked fantastic last week with 308 yards and 3 touchdowns. This is also the fifth highest scoring game according to vegas at 47 points.
TB – Charles Sims ($4900) – Sims is in line for a large number of touches with Doug Martin out a few weeks and finally gets his shot as an every down back. Although he’s going against a top half defense in the Rams, at this price he should easily surpass his salary based expectations. He’s the 25th priced running back, but has the 12th highest projected floor on FantasyLabs. Home favorites are always a good idea when selecting a running back and Sims fits that definition this week as the Bucs are 4 point favorites at home with an implied team total of 23.5. His backup is Jacquizz Rodgers who is just not that good of a running back. Expect Sims to get 15 carries and 5 catches this week in the lead role.
SD – Melvin Gordon ($5800) – Gordon is going to be one of the highest owned players this week and for good reason. He’s a fantastic cash game play with his high floor going against the Colts “defense”. We learned in week 1 that fading the chalk running back (Spencer Ware) in tournaments isn’t always the greatest idea, so he’ll definitely be in my GPP lineups as well. Fading makes some sense given his high ownership, but I don’t see a way where he doesn’t destroy the Colts defense. Now that Danny Woodhead is out for the year, I fully expect the Chargers to make Gordon their workhorse back considering they drafted him 15th overall. Also, the signing of Dexter McCluster doesn’t scare me all that much this week. He might get 20-30% of the snaps, but I’m still going to be all over Gordon this week.
DET – Theo Riddick ($4900) – With Ameer Abdullah out, it looks like Riddick will take over more than just the 3rd down role he’s accustomed to. He’s extremely cheap on DraftKings compared to FanDuel so if you’re playing both sites I definitely recommend getting your exposure on DraftKings, especially with the full ppr. They travel to Green Bay, which isn’t ideal since Green Bay has been the best rush defense so far this season only allowing 1.6 yards per carry and 39 yards per game. I don’t see that as a huge problem though. He might not run the ball for 100 yards, but that’s not why we put him on our team anyway. The Lions are currently 8.5 point underdogs, which actually could help a running back like Riddick as he’s going to be the pass catching back like usual, with some extra rushing yards on top of it. They do have a running back behind him in Dwayne Washington I’ve heard good things about, but I still expect Riddick to get 75% of the snaps.
JAX – Allen Robinson ($7500) – Robinson has had a poor start to the season, but I think he gets back on track this week. His salary has decreased even though he’s still seeing 10 targets a game. On Football Outsiders, the Ravens are 28th ranked defense against #1 receivers and 5th against the #2 receiver. Hurns might be in trouble this week, but ARob certainly seems to be in a good spot. He’s in a weird area of salary as well that should keep his ownership down. If people roster the stud receivers they’re probably going to have to drop down and get the value guys like Travis Benjamin and Stefon Diggs, leaving the second tier of receivers relatively low owned. This game should be fairly close to keep the passing attack in full force for Jacksonville. Robinson gets back on track this week with a big game.
*Value* SD – Travis Benjamin ($5200) – There seems to be a trend here. If the Colts are playing, every player on the opposing offense has the chance for a big game. The new #1 receiver for the Chargers, Benjamin is a burner that can take the top off any defense. He’s now being asked to be more of a complete receiver and in his first game as the #1, he caught all 6 of his targets for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns. I expect him to have another big game against the awful Colts defense. The vegas total of 50.5 is the second highest and this could turn into a 35-31 game real easy, given that neither defense is all that good.
MIA – Jarvis Landry ($6600) – Jarvis Landry is an absolute must play this week. He’s a target monster that is nearly guaranteed to have at least 10 targets and 6 catches every game. Through two games, he already has 23 targets and 17 receptions, which makes his floor the 5th highest this week on FantasyLabs, even though he’s the 20th priced wide receiver. The Browns are just not an NFL caliber team right now and they’ve given up 4 touchdowns this season to pretty mediocre offenses and receivers. The Dolphins should pile on here, mostly through the passing game as their running back situation is a mess right now.
*Tournament* KC – Jeremy Maclin ($6000) – Maclin is fairly cheap at $6000 and he tends to be pretty low owned given the way the Chiefs offense usually works. This week I can see it going much different. We all know by now that Darrelle Revis no longer owns an island, the Jets offense might actually be pretty darn good and teams still are unable to run on the Jets. All three of those make me think that the Chiefs might be forced to pass much more than they’re used to in order to keep up with the Jets. It’s also worth mentioning that Maclin saw 15 targets last week, his most since 2014 when he was with the Eagles.
ATL – Jacob Tamme ($3200) – Tamme has quietly had 8 targets in each of his first two games. Last week he went for 5 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown against a struggling Raiders defense. This week he gets another defense we like to pick on in the New Orleans Saints. This game has the highest implied total at 53.5 with the Falcons predicted to score 25.25. Those are fantastic numbers that should lead to some serious fantasy production from Tamme this week.
BAL – Dennis Pitta ($3400) – Pitta had a fantastic game last week with 9 catches on 12 targets for 102 yards. He’s still really cheap at only $3400 and I have a feeling this will be the last week we see him under $4k. The Jaguars still don’t seem to have gotten their defense figured out and I’ll be targeting them until they do. With this being a close game that’s done mostly through the air, I like Pitta this week to get in the end zone.
Miami Dolphins ($3000) – The Dolphins will be playing at home against a 3rd string rookie quarterback who was taken in the 3rd round of last year’s draft. With a cheap price tag and the Browns implied total of a second worst 16.25, the Dolphins are in a great spot to put up some points.
Tampa Bay Bucs ($3100) – The Buccaneers have played their first two games on the road against good offenses and people will probably be shying away from them from the massacre the Cardinals put on them last week. It’s a new week, and I think it’s a solid spot to take a lower owned defense with big upside. The Rams have the 4th lowest team total at 18.5 points. In the Bucs home opener, they get the touchdown-less Rams that have a turnover prone quarterback and zero weapons on the outside.
Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28