It’s already Week 3 and below are my sleeper picks for the Sunday main slate. Be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
WR: Marquise Goodwin: (5,500)
After essentially missing the first two games of the season with a deep thigh bruise (only 17 snaps in Week 1), Goodwin is expected to return this Sunday in a dream matchup vs a horrible Chiefs defense. Yes, their offense has been unbelievable, but this Kanas City team has been the complete opposite on the other side of the ball, allowing 32.5 PPG, ranking 29th in pass DVOA, and 30th in overall DVOA. To a further extent, WRs are scoring 53.9 FPG on them, which is the second highest average in the league. Vegas currently has The Niners with an implied team total of 24.5 points and 6.5 point underdogs, in this tilt that possesses the highest O/U game total of the year, at 55.5 points.
Without a doubt, this is the game you want to attack this Sunday, and while everyone will be on The Chiefs, I think most of The Niners, like Goodwin, will go under owned. This San Francisco offense needs his Olympic speed and I think Goodwin and Jimmy Garoppolo will get right back to the chemistry we saw from them in second half of last season. Excluding the limited snaps he saw in the Week 1 loss to The Vikings, Goodwin is averaging 16.3 DK PPG with Garoppolo throwing him the pig skin. In these games, he led this offense with 51 targets (21.5%), which was a large 20 more targets than the second most used Niners’ offensive player. Garoppolo might have to approach 40 passes and Goodwin should be heavily involved in this pass happy attack. With the 7-10 targets I am projecting for this speedster, he should top 15+ DK points, with a ceiling around 25, depending on if he can achieve the 100 yard bonus. Fresh off an injury and not a single DK point to his name this season, Goodwin should hopefully only be around 10% owned or less in large tournaments. (9-12% projected ownership, via Fantasy Labs)
WR: Geronimo Allison: (4,500)
Allison has meshed well as The Packers #3 WR, averaging 15.2 DK PPG. He has played 75% of the snaps and has brought in 11 of 14 total passes from Aaron Rodgers. The chemistry between the two seems to be growing and at this price, Allison is simply too cheap for the role he has in this pass heavy Packers’ offense. His Week 3 matchup vs The Redskins (13th in DVOA) isn’t much better than his first two of the year (Bears then Vikings, both top ten in overall DVOA), but they showed some holes last week vs The Colts, with a 7/83/1 line from T.Y. Hilton. Also, Allison has been moved all over the field this season, so he shouldn’t see too much of top CB Josh Norman, who primarily plays on the left side.
The Packers are on the road, but they have a healthy implied team total of 24.25 points, and are three point underdogs, which would suggest for more attempts than usual for Rodgers. Obviously, this offense is a pass first unit, but last week, as underdogs, he was forced to throw it 42 times, and in the last six games The Packers have been underdogs with Rodgers running the show, he is averaging 42.3 passes, compared to the 36 APG he is averaging the last three seasons. The opportunities are going to be there for Allison and I think he is a sneaky value play, that has a solid floor and a decently high ceiling.
RB: Dion Lewis: (4,500)
Lewis has led this Titans’ backfield, playing 64% of the snaps, vs Derrick Henry’s 36%, and out touching him, 36 to 29. After a 22 DK point showing vs The Dolphins in Week 1, he had a down game of only 5.3 DK points in Week 2 vs The Texans. But, Blaine Gabbert got the start at QB for the injured Marcus Mariota (elbow) in this game, which hurt Lewis, with him only seeing one target, compared to the 8 he saw with Mariota two weeks ago. Mariota got in a limited practice on Thursday and is trending towards making his return this Sunday vs The Jags. As you know, The Jags have an elite secondary and this resulted in them being a reverse funnel defense last season, ranking 1st in pass DVOA, but 27th in rush DVOA.
QBs know they have to work it short and in the middle vs these corner backs, and we just saw Patriots’ RB James White catch 7/8 targets for 73 yards against them this past Sunday. This is all setting up for Lewis to see a ton of check downs in Week 3, especially with The Titans expecting to be heavy underdogs on the road. (There is no line out yet, with no official confirmation on Mariota) Understandably, I would prefer Lewis if Mariota is active, but either way this is a very cheap price for a back who could possibly see 15-20 touches, and come with little to no ownership in GPPs. (2-4% projected ownership, via Fantasy Labs)
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson.
RB: Melvin Gordon (even though he been awesome, averaging 30.6 DK PPG, most of the DFS community is going to avoid him in this tough spot vs The Rams), Jordan Howard (Howard has been much more active in the pass game thus far, catching eight passes through two weeks. He has already ran 49 routes this season, which is nearly half of how many he ran in 2017. (209) On top of more receiving work, all the goal line duties are still his, with five red zone touches, compared to Tarik Cohen’s one. As you can see, they are trying to make him more of a three down back and soon we should see some big days from Howard. This very well could be the first of many, with The Bears as 5.5 point favorites over the hopeless Cardinals), and Lamar Miller. (The Giants are 30th in rush DVOA)
WR: Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Emmanuel Sanders (should bounce back vs Ravens’ slot CB Tavon Young (51.3 PFF grade), who just got burnt by Tyler Boyd for 9/91/1), Keelan Cole (Titans have given up the third most fantasy points to WRs and rank 25th in pass DVOA), and John Brown (a TD in each game thus far, just saw ten targets this past week, and The Broncos surprisingly rank 24th in pass DVOA)
TE: George Kittle (the return of Goodwin should help Kittle. The price went up after the down showing last week, but it’s still decently cheap, if you want more shares of this KC-SF matchup. The Chiefs rank 31st in DVOA vs TEs and are allowing the third most fantasy points to the position), and Ian Thomas (did little to nothing in his first start for Greg Olsen, catching 2/3 targets for 10 yards, but he was a full time player, logging 64/67 snaps. His matchup is better this week, vs The Bengals, who have given up the most fantasy points to TEs. The floor is low, but for $2,800, all we need is a few catches for value)
D: Dolphins and Cowboys. (only $2,200 vs The Seahawks, who have been the best offense to pick on, allowing a league high 14 FPPG)