Welcome back everyone, Alex here and these are my favorite values for the DraftKings’ main Sunday slate. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 4 sleeper picks, that will be posted later on in the week. @Hunta512.
QB: Andy Dalton: (5,400)
Dalton has been a solid cheap QB option, averaging 21.7 DK PPG. He has thrown over 40 passes in his last two starts and is averaging 23.8 DK PPG in this stretch. This week, he projects to see a similar amount of attempts, as five point road underdogs vs The Falcons, who have allowed 42.6 passes per game. Additionally, RB Joe Mixon (knee) is expected to miss his second straight game for The Bengals, which means this offense will be more of a pass heavy unit. Last week, with the starting RB sitting out, this offense was second only to The Vikings in pass plays ran, at 46. (77% of their offense)
On top of the volume we should see from Dalton, this defense has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to QBs (30th in DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA) and this game has the highest O/U game total of the main slate. (51 points) It wasn’t the prettiest showing in real life (four picks), but in terms of fantasy, Dalton was a strong value last week vs The Panthers (21.08 DK points at $5,700) and it really doesn’t make much sense why DraftKings would cut his price down $300 for his easiest matchup of the season. Dalton should score 20+ DK points and is my favorite value to attack at QB.
RB: Giovani Bernard: (6,300)
I usually don’t like playing a QB and RB together from the same team, but their low price points and this matchup, make both Dalton and Bernard almost must plays. As I just told you, Mixon will most likely miss this game vs The Falcons, which keeps Bernard in a workhorse role for The Bengals. In Week 3 vs The Panthers, he was the only RB to see a touch for this team. He played 57 of 65 snaps, produced 12/61/1 on the ground, and 5/25 on nine targets through the air. (19.6 DK points) It’s hard to expect 100% of the touches again, but I think Bernard handles at least 80%, after his success last week. He is an above average rusher, but his main skill as a back has always been his pass catching and this matchup vs Atlanta couldn’t be better for receiving RBs.
Last season, they allowed the most total catches to the position and this year has been no different, with RBs catching 12 balls per game through the first three weeks. Last Sunday, Alvin Kamara hauled in a ridiculous 15 passes and Christian McCaffrey caught 14 in Week 2. If The Bengals are playing from behind, as expected, Bernard should easily catch at least five passes, on top of the 15-20 rushes he should see. This brings his already high floor and ceiling with Mixon sidelined to a whole another level. This is a picture perfect spot vs Bernard and I honestly think he is about a $1,000 too cheap on DraftKings.
WR: Odell Beckham Jr.: (8,700)
By his standards, OBJ has been relatively quiet (19 DK PPG), but this should be the week he gives one of those signature performances that reminds us of how talented he really is. He will be going against a Saints’ secondary that ranks dead last in pass DVOA and has allowed the most fantasy points to WRs, by a whopping 13.8 points per game. There has been nine WRs TDs scored on them and they are giving up 281 receiving yards to WR groups each week, which is the highest mark in the league, by 86.7 yards. It’s honestly insane how much of a back seat they have taken from a year ago. They still have Marshon Lattimore and he will most likely shadow OBJ, but he has also slipped dramatically, posting a PFF defensive grade of 62.3 through three weeks, compared to his 86.1 grade from a year ago. (31st in DVOA vs #1 WRs)
Some will point back to Julio Jones not going off last Sunday in this spot (14.6 DK points), but this was mostly a result of his lack in usage. Jones only missed on one of his targets, but only saw six total. I doubt this happens with Beckham (31.2% market share of Giants’ targets), with him averaging 11.6 targets in his last six games and starting TE Evan Engram (knee) out. Also, this tilt is right behind The Bengals vs Falcons for the highest total of Sunday (50 points) and The Giants are at home. For his career, Beckham is scoring 3.23 more DK points a game in New York vs on the road, and in those six home matchups that had a game total over 50 points, he is averaging 21.8 DK PPG. OBJ should score his first TD of the season and I am expecting a show from him in front of his home crowd on Sunday.
TE: Eric Ebron: (3,600)
If Jack Doyle (hip) remains out, it’s hard not to take the savings with Ebron again. As the primary TE last week, he logged 88% of the snaps and ran 41 routes vs The Eagles. He only brought in five passes for 33 yards, but he was Andrew Lucks favorite option, seeing a team high 11 targets in the loss. He also led the team with four red zone targets in this game and is tied for the most this season, with TY Hilton. Assuming Doyle is out (didn’t practice on Wednesday and is considered “week to week” at this point), Ebron should be out there on every single passing play for The Colts.
He scored a TD in each of the first two games, with a healthy Doyle in the lineup, and the opportunities in the redzone should absolutely continue. This Sunday, he faces The Texans who have given up a TD to a TE in two of their first three contests and they rank dead last in DVOA vs the position. This time around, I think Ebron possibly secures a TD and definitely eclipses double DK points. He will be chalky and there’s plenty of logic to fading him in GPPS, but for cash games, I think it is wise to just eat the chalk and to bank on Ebron having a better game in this full time role.
QB: Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.
RB: Alvin Kamara, Melvin Gordon (Chargers have the highest implied team total and are 10.5 point home favorites. He is averaging 19.7 DK PPG in his last four home games that The Chargers were favorited), Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliot, Tevin Coleman, and Sony Michel (With Rex Burkhead being place on IR with a neck injury, this Pat’s backfield becomes a two man operation, with Michel doing most of the ground work and James White handling the passing downs. Michel could possibly approach 20 touches if this game goes to according to plan, with The Pats favored at home vs The Dolphins, by seven points. It isn’t an ideal matchup for the rookie (MIA 6th in rush DVOA), but given the importance of this game (Pats are 1-2) and their implied team total (27.5 points), Michel is a very viable punt play for all formats)
WR: Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, Calvin Ridley (Bengals rank 20th in DVOA vs WR #2s), Sterling Shepard (After Engram left the game, Sheppard saw an uptick in usage. He was targeted seven times and caught six of those balls for 80 yards and a TD vs The Texans. Engram will be out and as I talked about with OBJ, this is the best matchup there is for WRs right now), Tyler Boyd (has scored in back to back games and is averaging 24.9 DK PPG in these last two. He saw seven targets last week and with The Bengals going more pass heavy without Mixon, Boyd should see similar volume), and Geronimo Allison.
TE: Rob Gronkowski (he has to be more involved in this must win and in the last time he played The Dolphins he scored 25.2 DK points) and Austin Hooper.
D: Jags, Chargers, Bears, and Colts.