DraftKings NFL Week 4 Picks (Written By Keagan Scott)
Hey everybody, I’m back again for Week 4 of the NFL season. Hard to believe we’re almost a quarter of the way done so let’s take advantage while we can!
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Hopefully you guys had a solid Week 3. Looking back at last week’s picks, we hit nicely on a few players and missed on a few. I did have a chance to take down the NFL $60K Play-Action, but finished in 28th after Tevin Coleman decided to score 3 touchdowns and Tamme had an awful game. Still ended up with a solid ROI on the weekend and hope you guys did too!
My best plays from last week started at the QB position with Tannehill. He was my cash game quarterback and for good reason going against the Browns defense. Tannehill got the benefit of a closer than expected game and ended up with 25 DK points. I also wrote about his receiver, Jarvis Landry last week. He put up a monster game with 7 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown worth 29.6 DK points. My other big hits were Charles Sims and Allen Robinson who both put up over 24 points and led a lot of my cash games to success. My two big misses came on my tournament suggestions which were Carson Palmer, who somehow threw four interceptions on four straight drives in the fourth quarter, and Jeremy Maclin who was probably a victim of game script after Ryan Fitzpatrick forgot what team he was on. Both ended up with 7.5 DK points. Yuck.
Nevertheless, we live to research another day and I’m excited to get back at it. Let’s take a look at the players I have my eye on for Week 4.
*Cash* DAL – Dak Prescott ($5700) – Dak is underpriced again in my opinion. I was pretty skeptical of the rookie signal caller to start the season, but last Monday night sold me. Dak is going to be my main cash game quarterback this week because of his high floor and the matchup. The San Francisco 49ers have the fastest pace in the NFL (Chip Kelly still doesn’t think his defense needs rest) and this will give more plays to the slow paced Cowboys offense. This game has a middle of the road over/under this week of 46 with the Cowboys implied total of 24.25. The 49ers defense is nothing special and the Cowboys should be able to move the ball relatively easy with several offensive weapons at Dak’s disposal. This could be a big breakout game for Dak.
WAS – Kirk Cousins ($6500) – The Redskins will play Cleveland at home with the second highest implied team total of 26.75. A lot of people will be targeting the Browns defense given how bad it is this season. Kirk has thrown for the second most yards in the league, but only has 3 touchdowns to go with it. I think he gets back on the right side of variance this week and throws for at least 3 touchdowns with probably the deepest group of receiving threats in the NFL. If you’re looking to stack him with someone, I’d look at Jamison Crowder or Jordan Reed.
*Tournament* ARI – Carson Palmer ($6300) – I’m going to go against my recency bias and say Carson Palmer could be a solid tournament option this week. I’m hoping last week was a random fluke that he won’t repeat in back to back weeks. His salary dropped from $7200 to $6300 this week with a good matchup and I think it’s one we can take advantage of given everyone still has those 4 interceptions in their mind. He’ll be at low ownership, which can be huge if he goes off. He faces a middle of the road defense at home with a great defense behind him. It also helps that the Cardinals have a solid team total of 25.25 in Vegas playing against the 10th fastest team according to Football Outsiders pace statistic. My gut tells me the Cardinals absolutely throttle the Rams in a blowout.
*Cash* CHI – Jordan Howard ($3700) – Jordan Howard is crazy cheap this week because DraftKings came out with the prices before Jeremy Langford went out with an injury. In my cash lineups, I always want a RB who is in line for a large workload and catches multiple passes as it raises your floor tremendously when your RB has the opportunity to catch 5 balls. He’s priced as the 38th running back this week, but has the 11th highest floor projection on FantasyLabs. That’s something we need to take advantage of in cash games when the value is that obvious. This Bears vs Lions game has the 4th highest over/under and it could turn into a shootout if the good version of Brian Hoyer shows up. Regardless, Howard should get a large majority in the passing game if the Bears get down early.
NO – Mark Ingram ($5900) – Ingram is another running back that was an obvious value to me. He’s priced as the 13th RB, but has the 5th highest floor projection. He was fantastic last week and might be highly owned in tournaments, but for cash I’ll be all over him. The best part about his game last week was the 4 catches for 30 yards and a TD. He’s shown he can contribute in the passing game, which makes him viable in all game scripts and it certainly helps when you have Drew Brees at quarterback going against his former team.
*Tournament* SF – Carlos Hyde ($4200) – Carlos has had a quiet year, but it hasn’t been bad whatsoever. His price has declined from $5600 to $4200 with little reason behind it. He rushed for nearly 5 yards a carry last week against the Seahawks totaling 103 yards and 2 touchdowns. And his price went down! Look for Hyde to be under owned this week in a decent spot against the Cowboys at home.
CHI – Kevin White ($3400) – Kevin White finally had his first solid game as a pro and led the league in targets last week with 14. He ended with 6 catches for 62 yards and no scores. I think that changes this week against the struggling Lions defense. The Lions have a solid corner in Darius Slay and I’d imagine he’ll be covering Alshon quite a bit. On Football Outsiders, the Lions are 20th in the league against #2 receivers. Again, this game has a solid over/under at 47.5 and it should be a close game given the 2.5 point spread. Look for Kevin White to possibly break out again with a big game. Oh and did I mention he’s just $3400?
*Tournament* TB – Adam Humphries ($3000) – Stone price minimum is a disgrace for this guy right now. Wait, let’s back up. Who the hell is Adam Humphries? Now that Vincent Jackson can’t get open if my grandma was covering him, Humphries has essentially taken over the WR2 role for the Bucs. His targets have rose each week from 5-8-12. Last week caught 9 balls for 100 yards. This week they face the Denver Broncos, which is obviously a tough matchup. With a lot of the focus on Mike Evans and the Bucs likely to be down, Winston is going to be throwing the ball a lot and he has to throw it to someone right?
*Tournament* ARI – John Brown ($4300) – John Brown finally got out of the doghouse last week against Buffalo. He had really struggled in the first two games, seeing only 4 and 3 targets. Last week he saw 11 and caught 6 of them for 70 yards. I think the Cardinals are in a fantastic spot this week to redeem themselves from the beatdown they got from Buffalo. John Brown is a huge upside guy that I like to take my chances on in tournaments. We also want to monitor Michael Floyd’s status as he’s currently going through the NFL concussion protocol. With his price being so low, he doesn’t have to do much to pay it off and I think he does that and more this week against the Rams.
*Cash* SD– Hunter Henry ($2700) – Henry is likely going to be a very chalky play this week as he’s priced near minimum, but has everything you want in a fantasy tight end. He’s cheap, has a solid matchup, a home favorite and has the volume to go with it all. Last week in his first start he caught all 5 of his targets for a solid 76 yards. This week he’s going against a Saints team that is usually porous against opposing tight ends. The Chargers have the highest team total of the week at 28.5 points and this game has the highest over/under at 53.5. This one should definitely be a shootout and game stacking here is going to be very popular.
*Tournament* MIN – Kyle Rudolph ($3400) – Kyle Rudolph is finally living up to the hype that came after his rookie season and being named the Pro Bowl MVP. So far this season, he’s the second most targeted tight end in the NFL behind Greg Olson. He’s had a touchdown in two straight games and it seems Bradford is looking for him early and often in the redzone. This week the Vikings are a home favorite, which I love to target with tight ends as it correlates to fantasy success at the position like a running back.
New England Patriots ($3300) – The Patriots are at home this week in their last game without Tom Brady. They play the Buffalo Bills who pulled off an impressive win last week against the Cardinals, but I feel that may be short lived. This Patriots defense absolutely dominated the Texans last week that has several offensive weapons much better than what the Bills possess. This game should be low scoring with a lot of LeGarrette Blount and a few turnovers to go with it.
*Tournament* Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2600) – The Bucs struggled last week against the Rams and that slightly worries me, but I have reasons to think they might bounce back this week. When looking for a tournament defense I look for defenses that can get after the quarterback and cause pressure. To do that, we need them going against a bad pass protecting offensive line. The Broncos have given up the second most sacks on the season with 12. With an inexperienced and unproven quarterback, the Bucs might be able to score a defensive touchdown in back to back weeks.
Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28