What’s going on everybody. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings sleeper picks for The Week 4 Sunday main slate. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
WR: Jarvis Landry: (7,400)
Landry leads the entire NFL in market share targets. So far, he has seen 35.2% of The Browns’ targets and now, he will be playing with a much more aggressive QB in Baker Mayfield. After Tyrod Taylor went down in the first half of last Thursday’s win over The Jets, Mayfield was instantly looking Landry’s way, throwing to him twice on his first drive as The Browns’ QB. This continued for the rest of the game, with Landry and Mayfield connecting seven times on 11 targets for 94 yards. Landry should continue to see double digit targets each week and with a better pocket passer throwing to him, he is about to have some huge games in DraftKings’ full PPR system. His first victim with Mayfield under center will be The Oakland Raiders this Sunday.
He scored 23.3 DK points on The Jets in Week 3, which is the toughest matchup in the air this season. (1st in pass DVOA) Now, he faces off with The Raiders, who are the second worst pass defense (31st in DVOA), that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to WRs. As primarily a slot WR (67% of routes ran from slot), Landry will mostly be matched up with slot CB Leon Hall, who has a low PFF grade of 56.9. (2017 & 2018) Via PFF’s WR/CB chart, Landry has the 6th biggest advantage for a WR in Week 4. The Browns are road underdogs (OAK -3) and Landry should be very busy if they want any shot of winning their second straight game.
TE: Tyler Eifert: (3,800)
After logging only 22% of the snaps in Week 1, Eifert has seen 64% and 65% the past two weeks. He struggled vs The Ravens (4.3 DK points), but showed some life vs The Panthers, catching six of his eight targets for 74 yards. (13.4 DK points) They have worked him in slowly, but it seems that Eifert is ready to run a route on almost all of Dalton’s throws going forward. (was in on 36 of the 46 passing plays in Week 3) He is one of the most dangerous redzone targets in all of football (13 TDs in 2015) and I am expecting him to also be utilized more in scoring opportunities going forward. (only 1 redzone target this season) This could easily be the week he scores his first TD of 2018, in this potential shootout vs The Falcons. This contest has the highest O/U game total of the main slate, by a notable three points. (53 points)
Plus, The Bengals implied team total has seen the single biggest move since the opening lines, improving 3.2 points. (24.5 points) The Falcons don’t look like the most appealing matchup (13th in DVOA vs TEs), but they have only faced one legitimate TE, in Zach Ertz. (5/44/0) Also, they are down both their starting strong safety Kenau Neal (knee) and free safety Ricardo Allen. (Achilles) Either way, Eifert is trending up and is underpriced for the upside he presents in this high total. At only a $200 difference, Eifert is a strong pivot off Eric Ebron in GPPs.
WR: Mike Williams: (4,500)
Speaking of redzone threats, Williams has been a stud. In these last two games for The Chargers, he has converted all three of his redzone targets for three TDs. He is now averaging 16 DK PPG in this young season. WR Travis Benjamin (foot) could return, but I honestly don’t think this will effect William’s snaps. In Week 1, with both players healthy, the 7th overall pick in last year’s draft, was still out there for 44 of the 51 passing plays.
This week, Williams is in a great position to smash value again, vs The Niners, who rank 29th in pass DVOA. He should see a good amount of CB Jimmie Ward, who is the second lowest graded starting CB in action this week. (45.3 via PFF) The Chargers are going to pour the points on this Niners defense (28.5 implied team total, tied for highest of the slate) and there is a very good chance that Williams scores one or two of their TDs.
QB: Deshaun Watson, Eli Manning, and Baker Mayfield.
RB: Jordan Howard (26 touches last week and should similar amount of work, as a three point home favorite over The Bucs, who have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to RBs), Carlos Hyde, James White (the perfect pivot off Sony Michel. If this game stays competitive, White will be very active in the passing game), and Lamar Miller (just too cheap for his 17 touch per game role. The Colts have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to RBs)
WR: Julio Jones (tough spot vs The Bengals, who are 4th in DVOA vs #1 WRs, but the game environment keeps him in play at this reasonable price tag, especially with most still sour from last week), Mike Evans (I don’t like attacking this Bears’ defense, but I think the one spot that could work out is with Evans. This defense is 6th in overall DVOA, but 20th in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Allen Robinson (Bucs have given up the second most DK points to WRs), Chris Hogan (better if Josh Gordon is out again, but regardless, The Pats should rebound at home and this is a soft tag for Hogan, who will play essentially every snap), and Antonio Callaway. (10 targets last week with Mayfield playing over half the game)
TE: Trey Burton (With WR Anthony Miller doubtful (shoulder), Burton could be very busy out of the slot. Also, this is the best matchup a TE could ask for, with The Bucs allowing the most fantasy points and ranking 25th in DVOA vs the position), David Njoku (Tough spot vs The Raiders, who are 8th in DVOA vs TEs, but his production can only go up with Mayfield), and Rhett Ellsion (After Evan Engram left the game with the knee injury, Ellison caught all three of his targets for 39 yards and a TD vs The Texans. He played 87% of the snaps and we can expect a similar amount of work with Engram already ruled out. Ellison has caught every pass that has been thrown his way this season and last year, in the only game he logged more than 50 snaps, he scored a solid 11.3 DK points. The Saints have been tough on TEs (6th in DVOA), but as a whole, this secondary is a disaster. (dead last in pass DVOA) The floor is scary, but for only $2,800, you are getting a full time player in one of the best game settings of the week)
D: Browns, Cardinals, and Cowboys.