How’s it going guys. Alex here, and these are my favorite values for the DraftKings’ main Sunday slate. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 5 sleeper picks, that will be posted later in the week. @Hunta512.
QB: Ben Roethlisberger: (6,900)
This Steelers vs Falcons Week 5 matchup is going to be one of the biggest shootouts we have seen in years. Both defenses have been horrendous, ranking in the top seven in PPG allowed, YPG allowed, and opponent plays allowed. Vegas currently has this tilt with an O/U game total of 57.5 points, which is the highest total we have seen in almost two years, dating back to The 2017 NFC Championship between The Falcons and Packers. (59.5 and the over hit with 65) Both defensives have looked terrible, but by DVOA, Roethlisberger has the better matchup, between him and Matt Ryan, with The Falcons ranking 27th in pass DVOA vs The Steelers who are 19th.
Also, Big Ben is at home, where we all know he is a far more productive player, averaging nearly ten more fantasy points per game. (9.6) The Steelers currently have the highest implied team total of the main slate (30.25) and in the seven career home games his team has had a team total of 28 or more, he is averaging a tremendous 30.3 DK PPG. Without Le’Veon Bell, The Steelers have become almost a pass only offense, throwing it 70% of the time, which is second in the league, only behind The Vikings. Ben should attempt at least 40 passes, throw for over 300 yards, and throw for a minimum of two TDs in this must win home game. (Steelers are 1-2-1)
RB: Christian McCaffrey: (8,000)
McCaffrey has been excellent this season, scoring 23.3 DK PPG. Just as expected, after his usage in the preseason, he has been averaging 22.6 touches a game. Even as a back, he holds the 12th highest target share in The NFL (27.6%), which is second only to Alvin Kamara for a RB this season. To put this type of pass usage into perspective, he has a higher market share of his team’s targets than Michael Thomas and Davante Adams. The other crazy part to his high DK PPG average is that he is yet to score a TD, showing you how solid his floor is in a full PPR scoring system like DraftKings, and just how high his ceiling could be when he eventually finds the end zone.
They are giving him all the redzone work (leads this offense with nine touches) and very soon, like this week soon, I think he should score his first TD of the year. It’s just inevitable and this matchup vs The Giants is an ideal spot for it to happen, with them ranking 29th in rush DVOA and allowing six TDs to RBs so far this season. (10th most FPs to RBs) Additionally, The Panthers are seven point home favorites, which is great news for McCaffrey, who averages 2.2 more DK PPG at home. For high end RBs, I think McCaffrey is the best value of the top tier.
WR: Juju Smith-Schuster: (7,300)
As I mentioned above, The Steelers have become one of the most pass happy offenses in The NFL and this game is going to produce so much fantasy goodness this Sunday. At the moment, which could change if some value is unlocked, I don’t see how you can afford Antonio Brown in cash games. Yes, I will make it happen in GPPs, but for optimal lineup building, I think it is smart to take the discount with Smith-Schuster. He only trails Brown by four targets this year, which puts him as the 3rd most target WR in the league and he is averaging 21.9 DK PPG, compared to Brown’s 18.6 DK PPG.
Plus, as a slot WR (87% routes from slot this season), Juju will get the best individual matchup for The Steelers, going head to head with Falcons slot corner Brian Poole, who has a PFF grade of 52.9, the worst of this Falcons’ secondary. Bengals slot man Tyler Boyd just roasted Poole and this defense for 11/100/0 on 15 targets this past Sunday (24 DK points) and with Smith-Schuster’s very high TD chances (team high 13 redzone opportunities), he has a tremendous ceiling for his price.
TE: Vance McDonald: (3,700)
The best way to get cheap exposure to The Steelers vs Falcons, is McDonald. He was quiet in his season debut in Week 2 (5.6 DK points vs The Cheifs), but has been very productive in these past two games, averaging 17.2 DK PPG. His snap count doesn’t seem appealing (51%), but he is primarily being used as a pass catching TE, being out there on 63% of The Steelers’ pass plays the last three weeks. Jesse James is still around and playing essentially the same amount (50%), but his targets have dropped from five in Week 1, to only 2.3 per game since McDonald returned.
The Falcons look like a somewhat difficult spot for TEs (16th most FP allowed to TEs), but in half of their games this season, they have faced two offenses, in The Panthers and Saints, that barley feature a TE, and overall, they are one of the worst defensive units in The NFL. (30th in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA) Last week, before he went down with the season ending ankle injury in the beginning of the second half, Bengals’ TE Tyler Eifert, was on his way to a big day vs this beat up secondary, catching all four of his targets for 38 yards and a TD. (13.8 DK points) I am expecting a similar score from McDonald and with no reason to pay up at the position in cash games, he is my preferred TE option of the main slate.
QB: Matt Ryan (being at home, the higher team total, and the better overall matchup makes me prefer Big Ben (above), but if in a pickle and need some salary relief, I am completely fine pivoting to Ryan) and Andy Dalton.
RB: Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon (averaging 27.9 DK PPG and 4.7 YPC. He will face The Raiders who rank 29th in rush DVOA), James Connor (has been bad on the ground (3.2 YPC), but you don’t need to be a great rusher to put up fantasy numbers vs The Falcons, with them allowing an insane 10.5 catches a game to backs. With The Steelers being one of the most pass heavy offenses in all of football, Conner could catch double digit balls in this game), Kareem Hunt, T.J. Yeldon (19.5 DK PPG in these past two and Fournette is already ruled out. Oh, and he has the best possible matchup vs The Chiefs, who rank are 32nd in rush DVOA and have given up the most fantasy points to backs), and Ty Montegomery (only if Alison and Cobb are both out, Ty Mont would likely go back to playing as a WR and see work from the slot)
WR: Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Adam Thielen, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd (has some serious chemistry with Dalton right now, averaging 24.6 DK PPG over his last three), Sterling Shepard (continued his success with Evan Engram out of the lineup, putting up a 10/77/1 line vs The Saints in Week 4. This is the second game in a row over 20 DK points and with Engram out again, Shepard should see close to 10 looks), Doug Baldwin (In his return, Baldwin played 76% of the snaps. He only caught 5/7 targets for 41 yards, but he is clearly healthy and ready to help this struggling Seahawks’ pass game. His matchup vs The Rams is obviously tough (7th in pass DVOA), but he should see volume, with them as seven point underdogs), Geronimo Allison (If he plays and Randall Cobb is out, but seems unlikely, with him still in concussion protocol), Keelan Cole/Dede Westbrook (tremendous spot vs the awful Chiefs defense, that ranks 30th in pass DVOA. Also, it’s odd, but Blake Bortles has played better without Fournette, so this is looking like a nice time to attack The Jags at home), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (with Cobb out, he logged 71% of the snaps vs The Bills. He only caught one of his three targets for 38 yards, but if Cobb and Allison both were forced to miss this one, MVS would absolutely be viable in all formats at only $3,300 vs The Lions, especially with the likely possibility that top corner Dairus Slay shadows Davante Adams)
TE: Jimmy Graham (if Cobb and Allison sit) and David Njoku. (did much better with Baker Mayfield at QB, seeing seven targets and hauling in five of them for 52 yards, helping him to 10.2 DK points, which is his best score of the season. The matchup is ugly vs The Ravens (5th in pass DVOA), but he should be able to beat this low price tag regardless)
D: Broncos, Panthers, and Ravens.