Note From Kevin: Keagan is back with another DraftKings picks article for us for Week 5 of the NFL season. If you don’t have an account yet sign up at DraftKings.com (<- using that link) and get a free $3 contest entry on first deposit…Enjoy!
Hey everybody, I’m back again for Week 5 of the NFL season and I hope everyone had a solid Week 4. I didn’t have any late sweats like last week, but still ended up being a profitable week overall thanks to some chalky guys paying off their value.
Let’s take a look at my picks from last week and see what I got right/wrong. I went with Kirk Cousins as one of my bigger exposures at the qb position and he put up 3 touchdowns and 18 points. Fine numbers, but nothing to get overly thrilled with. All three of the running backs I wrote about last week had solid outings and I had a ton of exposure to them all. Howard didn’t find the endzone, but still ended up with 19.2 points thanks to 111 yards on the ground. Ingram had an awesome game over 20 points and Hyde did his part with 14.9 points.
My wide receivers last week were bargain players for the most part and those are usually hit or miss. Kevin White struggled with an injury and the min priced guy Adam Humphries did exactly what min priced guys are supposed to do; nothing. Big miss on that one. Landry was solid like always and my tournament play, John Brown, was big for me. He was only 1.6% owned in the milly maker and had 10 catches for 144 yards and 27.4 points. My tight end picks both did well, especially Kyle Rudolph who was very low owned and had 17.5 points as he found the endzone for the third straight game.
Overall, a solid week of picks and I’ll look to continue that for Week 5. Let’s take a look at the players I have my eye on for Week 5.
OAK – Derek Carr ($6800) – Carr is one of my favorite plays at the quarterback position this week as everyone and their grandmother is going to be rostering a “mad” Tom Brady. I’m all for narrative street and I’ll definitely have exposure to Tom, but I don’t mind paying down for someone like Carr in this situation. He’s playing in the highest scoring game according to Vegas with an over/under of 50.5 points. The Raiders are expected to score 27 points, which is only behind the Patriots, Steelers and Packers. All of those games are predicted to be blowouts as they’re all heavy favorites and the Raiders game with the Chargers should be close. It also should be noted that the Chargers stud corner Jason Verrett is now out for the season and I’ll definitely be looking to pair him up with both of his receivers and take advantage of a potential shootout.
CHI – Brian Hoyer ($5500) – If you’re someone who pays down for quarterback, Brian Hoyer is someone you might want to roster. In his last two games he’s thrown for over 300 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions. He’s clearly playing very well right now and he’ll get a tasty matchup against the struggling Colts who have the 29th ranked pass defense on Football Outsiders DVOA statistic. This game definitely could be a sneaky game stack opportunity as Chicago doesn’t have that great of a defense either.
*Tournament* NYJ – Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5100) – Fitzpatrick has been awful since his Week 2 explosion of 374 yards passing. He now has 9 interceptions in his last two games, which is pretty much unheard of. His salary has gone from $6500 to an insanely low $5100 and this is the exact time we want to buy low on a guy that will be facing the Pittsburgh Steelers’ weak secondary. This game has the second highest over/under and the Jets should be down in this one, meaning Fitzpatrick will be throwing A LOT. Brandon Marshall should be a force this Sunday and I’m definitely interested to see if Fitz can bounce back. Pairing him with Marshall and Antonio definitely makes for a nice, low-owned game stack.
*Cash* CHI – Jordan Howard ($5200) – Jordan Howard was crazy cheap last week and hopefully everyone took advantage of it. He’s still at a price I feel extremely comfortable with locking him in my cash lineup. He played extremely well last week and put up a nice point total despite not reaching the endzone. Howard has a prime matchup against the Colts “defense” who is awful at every level. They rank 26th against the run on Football Outsiders and I expect Howard to go over 100 yards from scrimmage and hopefully find the endzone. Lock it in.
*Tournament* ATL – Devonta Freeman ($5000) – Key word being “tournament”. Freeman has been somewhat disappointing this season except for the game against the Saints. This matchup against the Broncos certainly doesn’t seem very appetizing at first, but the fact is the Broncos are somewhat gettable on the ground. The rank 23rd in run defense and they’re giving up 4.2 yards per carry. Another interesting note to keep your eye on is the status of Tevin Coleman, who suffers from a sickle cell trait that may prevent him from playing in the high altitude in Denver. If Coleman is playing I would greatly diminish my shares of Freeman, but something to watch for.
*Tournament* LA – Todd Gurley ($6500) – Gurley has yet to have his breakout game this year and I have a feeling it might be this week as he faces a Bills defense who’s traveling across the country to play in Los Angeles. I love home running backs who are favored and that’s the exact spot Gurley finds himself in. Buffalo is in the middle of the pack in rush defense, but after two straight solid wins against the Cardinals and Patriots I’m looking for a letdown against the surprising 3-1 Rams.
NYJ – Quincy Enunwa ($4600) – Eric Decker has a partially torn rotator cuff and it looks like he might be headed to the IR. The biggest beneficiary of Decker’s absence will be Quincy, who’s already built up a nice chemistry with Fitzpatrick. Enunwa has averaged 8 targets a game this season and he should see around 10 moving forward. For $4600 that’s hard to find. He’s facing a subpar pass defense in the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second highest over/under game on the slate. It’s also something to note that the Steelers are ranked 25th against #2 receivers on Football Outsiders DVOA.
*Tournament* BUF – Robert Woods ($3900) – I have never rostered Robert Woods, but I think that changes on Sunday. With Sammy Watkins on the IR, Tygod is going to have to throw the ball to someone and it looks like Woods is going to be the guy. Woods had 10 targets last week and faces a Ram’s team with a struggling secondary that allowed Mike Evans and John Brown to combine for 20 catches for 276 yards and a touchdown the last two weeks. They really struggle against opposing teams #1 receivers and Woods could be a big factor on Sunday.
MIA – Jordy Nelson ($7900) – The Packers will play on Sunday night this week against the New York Giants. They have the third highest implied team total at 27.75 and they’re coming off a bye week facing a Giants team that got dominated on Monday night. Aaron Rodgers paired with Jordy is going to be one of my favorite stacks this week with their extremely high upside as Jordy has scored in all three of his games so far this season including two last week in the first half. Both of these defenses are awful against the pass as NYG are ranked 23rd and the Packers are 22nd so look for a nice game stack here pairing Jordy with Odell or a different Giants receiver.
*Cash* PHI– Zach Ertz ($3500) – Ertz is playing in his first game since week 1, where he caught 6 passes for 58 yards from Carson Wentz. This week he’s facing one of the worst defenses in the league at defending tight ends in the Detroit Lions and they’re just an awful defense in general, especially after losing their stud defensive end Ziggy Ansah. Ertz should be an easy pick this week and will probably be very highly owned and for good reason.
CHI – Zach Miller ($3600) – The Bears will make the short trip to my hometown to face the Indianapolis Colts this week. The Colts have been an absolute trainwreck on defense at every level, but they’re especially vulnerable to tight ends as they rank dead last at covering the position. I expect Miller to have a big game in a pretty high scoring game with plenty of offense.
*Tournament* Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2400) – When looking for a tournament defense I’m looking for a cheaper option that can get after the quarterback. This week the Bucs might be facing Derek Anderson as Cam Newton didn’t practice again on Wednesday. The Bucs rank inside the top 10 in sack % and the Panthers are in the bottom 5 in giving up sacks. If Newton plays, I’d stay away but if it’s Derek Anderson I’ll be all over the Buccaneers.
Denver Broncos ($3800) – My high priced defense comes as no surprise, but it’s hard to ignore how great this Broncos defense is. They’re facing an Atlanta team that just shredded the Panthers so I think ownership will be much lower than usual. Denver still leads the league in sack percentage at 10.2% and Atlanta ranks in the bottom third in pass protection.
Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28. Also be sure to check out Kevin’s picks below…