How’s it going guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Week 5. These are some of my favorite cheap plays for the MAIN SLATE that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, feel free to let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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WR: Jermaine Kearse: (4,500) Kearse’s matchup, at first glance, doesn’t look great against a Browns’ secondary that allows the 12th least DK points to WRs, but they have been dreadful when it comes to defending opposing #1 WRs. (32nd in DVOA vs #1 WRs) After Week 4, this Browns’ defense is giving up a pedestrian average of 30.3 DK points to opposing WRs, but are allowing their opponents top receiver to put up a high 23.5 DK points per game, which is a ridiculous 77% of the production by one player when you do the math. A quarter into this season, Kearse is leading this Jets’ receiving corp in snaps at 87.4% a game, is tied for the most targets, at six a game, and is by far Jets’ QB Josh McCown’s favorite red zone target, seeing 17.6% of this offenses’ red zone opportunities.
His last two outings haven’t been anything to brag about (6.45 DK PPG), but last week he was facing arguably the best secondary this season, in The Jaguars (1 in pass DVOA), and was a victim of a negative game script in Week 3 against The Dolphins, where The Jets led for most of the game, and McCown only had to attempt a season low 23 passes. This week’s game doesn’t have the highest total (39 points), but it should remain competitive throughout, as this is a pick’em situation with no team currently favorited. McCown should have to throw a decent amount, and If Kearse sees his usual six targets, he should be able to hit value against this Browns defense. Kearse obviously isn’t in the same class as some of the WRs The Browns have faced (Antonio Brown, A.J. Green), but this trend is clearly real, and I think he is worth a gamble, with the hope that this trend continues for the fifth straight week.
QB: Jay Cutler: (5,200) Call me crazy, but I think Cutler is a very intriguing GPP play this week. His first three games as a Dolphin, were ugly to say the least (10.6 DK PPG), but this week he couldn’t be in a better spot to show this Dolphins’ organization that they didn’t make a mistake paying him this summer. He will be taking on a Titans defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA, 29th in pass DVOA, and has allowed the second most DK points to QBs, at 25.7 DK points a game. Through four weeks, they have allowed 11 passing touchdowns, which is tied for the highest amount in The NFL. Just last week, this Titans defense got torn apart by Texan rookie QB DeShaun Watson, who threw for 283 yards, four TDs, and just one pick, in his second career start. (34.72 DK points)
For the main slate, this is by far the best matchup for any QB in action, with Titans currently presenting a very high opponent +/- of 7.7 points, which is the highest +/- for a QB by a sizable 3.2 points. If he has any intention of keeping his job, Cutler must perform well in this game. There have already been rumblings that this Dolphins’ coaching staff has been considering starting Matt Moore and if Cutler doesn’t have a solid showing vs this awful defense, he most likely will be riding the bench next week. On top having some extra motivation from a personal stand point, Cutler and this Dolphins team should be pumped up and ready to play well in front of their home crowd for the first time this season. Realistically, Cutler only needs to have an average game to meet value at this price tag and is someone who should be extremely low owned in large tournaments.
TE: Tyler Kroft: (3,200) With TE Tyler Eifert out (back), Kroft took full advantage of his opportunity, catching six of his seven targets for 68 yards and two TDs vs The Browns last Sunday. (24.8 DK points) In these two games with Eifert sidelined, Kroft has played a team high 90.4% of the offensive snaps and has been the number two receiving option, seeing a 19.6% of the teams targets. This week, he should remain in this big role, with Eifert questionable at best after not practicing at all this week, as of Thursday. Kroft’s Week 5 matchup on paper looks ugly vs The Bills, who rank 8th vs TEs this season (9.4 DK PPG), but if you go through their opponents, this ranking is a little deceiving.
In Week 1 they faced The Jets without Austin Seferian-Jenkins. In Week 2 they played The Panthers who lost Greg Olsen early in the game. Then in Week 3, they went against The Broncos who are an offense that hasn’t utilized a TE at all this year, and finally, in Week 4, they let Falcons TE Austin Hooper, who has done next to nothing since Week 1, catch five passes for 50 yards. Kroft, arguably is going to be their toughest test yet, standing at 6’5”, 252 pounds, compared to the player who will defend him the most, Bills safety Jordan Pryor, who is 6’0”, 191 pounds. Pryor has played well this season, but this is a huge physical advantage for Kroft, and PFF has Kroft rated with the highest advantage off all the TEs playing this week. I think we see Kroft exceed value and I like him as GPP pivot off the popular Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
QB: Brian Hoyer, Andy Dalton, and Carson Palmer.
RB: Ameer Abdullah (23 touches last week and is seeing a touch on 60% of his snaps played. The game script is in his favor this week, as 2.5 point home favorites), Andre Ellington, Wendell Smallwood (if active), Legarrette Blount (I like him better if Smallwood is out), Frank Gore, and C.J. Prosise (is dealing with an ankle injury but has a chance to play. With Carson on IR, I think Prosise is the most talented back in this SEA backfield, and if he is healthy enough, he has a great chance vs The Rams who have given up the most DK points to RBs)
WR: Devin Funchess, Jaron Brown, T.Y. Hilton (should see a boost in targets with Doyle out), Geronimo Allison (only if Adams is out), Terrence Williams, Kenny Stills, Torey Smith, Jarvis Landry, Aldrick Robinson (only if Goodwin is out), and Zay Jones.
TE: Hunter Henry (NYG has allowed the most DK points to TEs), Jason Witten, George Kittle (back to leading the team in snaps last week and is only $2,500), and Charles Clay.
D: Eagles, Dolphins (if Marcus Mariota is out), and Niners.