Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and below are my favorite values for the DraftKings’ main Sunday slate. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 6 sleeper picks, that will be posted later in the week @Hunta512.
QB: Jameis Winston: (5,800)
Winston has only played a half of football this season (8.5 DK points in one half vs The Bears), but he should be just fine in this gorgeous matchup vs The Falcons. They have been decimated with injuries, (Deion Jones, Grady Jarret, Ricardo Allen, Keanu Neal) leading them to being 31st in team DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA. Over the last three weeks, QBs have thrown for 328 yards and scored 3.6 TDs per game vs this defense. (31.6 DK PPG) This NFC South matchup is expected to be the highest scoring contest of the main slate (57.5 O/U game total, the highest total by 4.5 points) and The Bucs currently have an implied team total of 27 points. (4th highest of the slate)
Also, The Bucs are three point underdogs and when a QB has been an underdog vs this defense, they are scoring 27.5 DK PPG this season. The last time Winston faced Atlanta, this past December, he threw for 299 yards and three TDs. (25.76 DK points) This defense is so much worse now (20th in DOVA in 2017) and even though he is guaranteed to turn the ball over a few times (two picks vs The Bears), Winston should still retain at least three times value in this game environment.
RB: Ezekiel Elliot: (7,000)
I don’t care if he is facing The Jags, this is a absurd price for Zeke as a home favorite. For his career, he is averaging 21.4 DK PPG when favored at home, including 11 TDs in 15 games. This season, he has been even stronger, scoring 28.4 DK PPG in these situations. The Jags may look stout on the ground (7th in rush DVOA), but they have actually been exposed when facing a talented back. Saquon Barkley shredded them for 23.8 DK points in Week 1, James White put up 15.4 DK points in Week 2, and Kareem Hunt scored a solid 16.4 DK points this past weekend.
No disrespect to these backs, but Elliot is the far superior talent. He is seeing 25.5 touches a game at home this season and he should absolutely produce with this type of volume. It’s been nearly two years since Elliot was this cheap on DraftKings and this a bargain you don’t want to miss out on.
WR: Julio Jones: (7,900)
It pains me to say it, but you have to go back to Jones this week. He is at a very reasonable cost and in a tremendous spot vs The Bucs. Yes, The Falcons have been terrible defensively, but you know who has been even worse? The Bucs. They rank dead last in both team DVOA and pass DVOA. Before their bye, Bears’ QB Mitchell Trubinsky, a player who hasn’t shown much success as passer thus far in his career, threw for 354 yards and a Bears’ Super Bowl era record six TDs vs this Bucs’ secondary. They have allowed nearly 50 fantasy points a game to opposing WR groups and they rank 26th in DVOA vs #1 WRs.
Jones has had some of his greatest professional games against this team, with a 53.8 DK point and a 40.1 DK point showing. Overall, he is averaging 27.9 DK PPG vs this divisional rival. According to PFF, he has the largest advantage for a WR in the main slate, going against CB Carlton Davis. (56.3 PFF grade) The Falcons currently present the highest implied team total (30.5 points) and in the three games Jones has been a part of a team total over 30, he is averaging 25.9 DK PPG. Despite his recent woes (under 15 DK points in 3/5 games), I would be shocked if Jones doesn’t top 20 DK points this Sunday.
TE: Cameron Brate: (3,700)
With TE O.J. Howard out with a sprained MCL (2-4 weeks), Brate is a lock for cash games this Sunday. The two were splitting the TE duties for The Bucs, but with Howard out of the picture, Brate should log at least 75% of the snaps. He has been in on 50% of them the past two weeks and it has resulted in three catches and a TD in each game. (12.2 DK PPG) Now, with Howard’s 4.25 targets and 19.5 routes per game gone, Brate should see season highs in both snaps and targets, in the top game setting of the slate. The Falcons have been tough on TEs (5th in DVOA), but as a whole, this defense is an absolute disaster. (31st in DVOA)
Even though Vance McDonald failed in this spot last week (1.6 DK points), I think he was more a victim of The Steelers getting ahead, and throwing a season low 29 passes. The week prior to this, Bengals’ TE Tyler Eifert was exposing them before he broke his ankle early in the second half. (13.8 DK points) This defense is clearly more vulnerable to TEs than their ranking suggests, but either way, it is rather difficult to ignore Brate at this price in a full time role. UPDATE: Howard was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, but was sporting a knee brace. I still believe he misses this game, but this is clearly something to monitor.
QB: Matt Ryan (35.7 DK PPG at home and you couldn’t ask for a better matchup than vs this laughable Bucs’ secondary) and Jared Goff. ($6,000 is an extremely cheap price tag for a QB who is averaging 26.2 DK PPG and has an implied team total of 29.75 points. I do worry about Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp’s statuses (both dealing with concussions), but Goff and this high powered offense will figure it out vs this Broncos’ defense that has slipped to 20th in DVOA)
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon (only if Gio Bernard remains out. 20.5 DK points on 25 touches last week and this game has the second highest total of the slate), James Connor, T.J. Yeldon (Leonard Fournette has already been ruled out and Corey Grant is officially on IR. After Grant left the game last week, Yeldon logged a season high 93% of snaps and scored 26.2 DK points on 18 touches. Expect a similar workload this week vs The Cowboys), Tevin Coleman (Dovonta Freeman has been ruled out and even though Coleman isn’t playing an every down role without Freeman, the price drop comes at perfect time for this matchup vs The Bucs. He should see close to 15 touches, which is plenty vs this awful defense), and Bilal Powell. (if Isaiah Crowell is out. He missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury and if his 12.6 touches a game were eliminated, Powell would be a must have value vs The Colts, who have given up the second most fantasy points to RBs)
WR: Adam Thielen (he has been unbelievable this season, ranking T1 in targets and averaging 27.8 DK PPG. As mostly a slot WR (61%), Thielen shouldn’t see much of Patrick Peterson), Mike Evans (28 DK PPG before the tough matchup vs The Bears and he is getting the super aggressive Winston back. In his five career games The Bucs have seen an implied team total of 27 or more, Evans is scoring 20.2 DK PPG), Desean Jackson, Mohamed Sanu (17.6 DK PPG in his last three), Keke Coutee (through two games, the rookie is averaging 21 DK PPG on 11 targets. With top CB Tre’Davious White on the outside, Keke should remain active out of the slot), Chester Rogers (only if T.Y. Hilton sat. Last game without the top WR, Rogers led the team with 11 targets and The Colts are expected to be playing from behind, as 2.5 point underdogs to The Jets), and Chris Godwin. (15.7 DK PPG and a TD in each game before their matchup with The Bears. He is just another mispriced TB player in this game)
TE: David Njoku (back to back solid showings with Baker Mayfield at QB. (11.5 DK PPG) He also led the team in targets last week at 11. The Chargers are tough on TEs (1st in DVOA), but they should be throwing a ton) and Austin Hooper. (caught 9/12 targets for 77 yards vs The Steelers and this price is simply too cheap for a full time TE in this shootout)
D: Ravens and Cowboys. (yet again, it seems like an ideal week to pay down at defense. Both of these teams are facing offenses that have implied team totals under 22 points. I prefer The Ravens, because they are the better unit, but I really don’t mind punting with The Cowboys, who are only $2,300 and at home)