Week 6 is already here and below are my DraftKings sleeper picks for the Sunday main slate. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
TE: Greg Olsen: (4,500)
Olsen was a full participant in practice on Thursday (foot) and it’s looking like he will make his return this Sunday vs The Redskins. After practice, HC Ron Riviera said Olsen “moved well” and if he plays “he won’t be held back. It will be a full go”. (per Steve Reed of Charlette Associated Press) Olsen hurt his foot in Week 1 (2/33/0) and has only logged 16 total snaps this season. Let’s not forget, before his injury riddled 2017 campaign (only seven games), the three time Pro Bowler was one of the most prominent TEs in fantasy football, averaging 80.3 catches, 1,062 yards, and 5.3 TDs in the prior three seasons. In the last game he was full healthy (93% of the snaps), Olsen burnt The Saints for 8/107/1 in the final week of last season. We all known how much Cam Newton relies on Olsen and following practice today, he told the media, “the bands back” with a smile on his face, when talking about his TE’s return to the field.
With a full complement of snaps, Olsen should see a minimum of five targets in this matchup vs The Redskins. (22.3% target share the last three seasons) They have been average vs TEs (15th in DVOA), but he has been productive vs them in the past, averaging 4.5/69.5/0.5 in two full games. (14.5 DK PPG) No matter the matchup, Olsen needs to be considered at this soft price tag. This is the first time in four games he has been priced under $5,000 and I recommended attacking him now, before both his low price and ownership are a thing of the past. (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
QB: Deshaun Watson: (6,400)
Watson, yet again, is mis priced on DraftKings. Since his Week 1 loss to The Pats (13.04 DK points), Watson has produced more than four times value in four straight games (25.8 DK PPG) and is the 5th best fantasy QB in 2018. He has thrown over 300 yards, is averaging 2.0 TDs, and is chipping in with 6.5/40.3 rushing during this time. In Week 6, he is at home (2.84 more DK PPG), with a 25.5 point implied team total vs The Bills. Their defense has been above average vs the pass (7th in pass DVOA), but in the two previous home tilts Watson and The Texans were expected to score 25 points or more, he scored 26.6 DK PPG.
It’s also worth noting, Bills shut down CB Tre’Davious White has practiced on a limited basis the past two days with an ankle injury. If he was ever absent, The Texans would see a huge upgrade (specifically Deandre Hopkins) and most likely an increase in their Vegas team total. His status is something to keep an eye on, but nonetheless, Watson is an awesome play in GPPs, with Jameis Winston and Matt Ryan, garnering most of the ownership at QB.
WR: John Brown: (5,500)
Before the tough matchup vs a vastly improved Browns secondary in Week 5 (2nd in pass DVOA), Brown was meshing extremely well with Joe Flacco. (17.5 DK PPG) In last week’s loss to Cleveland, he got locked up by top CB Denzel Ward (83.1 PFF grade), but saw a team season high 14 targets. He is now averaging 8.8 TPG (19% market share) for this Ravens offense, that is running the most plays per game in The NFL. The matchup this week is a notable upgrade from The Browns. The Titans are 13th in pass DVOA, 14th in deep pass DVOA, and most importantly, 28th in DVOA vs #1 WRs.
The Ravens were 3-1 before the disappointing loss to The Browns and Flacco and this offense should have a better game plan to get the ball in Brown’s hands. This $5,000-$6,000 WR price range is one of the best places to differentiate yourself in Week 6. If Brown can haul in a deep one from Flacco, he could end up being a key piece to taking down a GPP.
QB: Cam Newton and Baker Mayfield. (The Browns are playing at the second fastest pace in the league and The Chargers are allowing the 6th most FPPG to QBs)
RB: David Johnson (I hate playing any Cardinal, but DJ has improved in each game the last three weeks, scoring 16.1 DK points, 19.2 DK points, and then 21.1 DK points. His snap percentage has also risen in every game to 94% this past Sunday. Being a 10.5 point road underdog is never ideal for a back, but he should be out there on almost every snap and The Vikings are 23rd in team DVOA), Jordan Howard (just a very appealing buy low chance with him in this game that should be very low scoring, with its 42 point O/U), Philip Lindsay (he’s led this backfield in snaps the past two games (13.5 DK PPG) and The Rams are 28th in rush DVOA. He is just the best back they have and no matter the game script, I think Lindsay should get value and has a decent ceiling, if their coaches come to their senses and give him more touches), Austin Ekeler (13.3 DK PPG in his last two, with an average ownership of 3.7% in The Millionaire Maker. Cleveland is the #2 defense in DVOA, but they are 21st in passes going to RBs), Ronald Jones (The Bucs’ might have the ugliest backfield in the entire NFL, but one of these backs is going to get value vs this horrendous Falcons’ defense. (31st in DVOA) Coming off a loss and then a bye week, I think there’s a good chance they realize that they need to give their second round pick more work, and what better time for that to happen than vs The Falcons), and Ito Smith (with Freeman out, Smith will likely see around ten touches in this dream spot vs The Bucs. (Dead last in DVOA) He is averaging 8.9 DK points on 8.3 touches when Freeman has sat this season. The ceiling is low, but he is a viable punt, at close to a bare minimum price)
WR: Deandre Hopkins (stack with Watson if White sits), Juju Smith-Schuster, Robert Woods, Emmanuel Sanders (Rams have given up the 5th most FPPG to WRs the last two weeks and he should see an uptick in targets, as a seven point underdog), Tyler Boyd, and Amari Cooper/Jordy Nelson.
TE: Vance McDonald (nobody is going to be on him after last week’s dud and he is in play once again for the same reason, a very high total. He still saw his normal snap count and before the flop vs The Falcons, he was scoring 17.2 DK PPG. Last, but not least, The Bengals are 26th in DVOA vs TEs) and C.J. Uzomah. (looks to be the guy with Tyler Eifert done for the year. He played 92% of the snaps as the starter and just like with McDonald, he is simply up for consideration because of the total and cheap price)
D: Bears ($3,300 is very cheap for the #1 fantasy defense in football coming off a bye) and Cardinals.