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DraftKings NFL Week 7 Picks

Below are my favorite values for DraftKings’ Week 7 Sunday main slate. There is only ten games to target, but as always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 7 sleeper picks, that will be posted later in the week @Hunta512.

QB: Tom Brady: (6,100)

Brady has only ever been this cheap one other time in the history of DraftKings and that was back in 2014. I understand that he is on the road vs The Bears (2nd in DVOA and 1st in pass DVOA), but they have actually cooled down after their extremely impressive start. In Weeks 1-4, they gave up 22.16 FPG to QBs, but since then, QBs are scoring 25.02 FPG on them, which is the 10th highest average over the last two weeks. As they always seem to do, Brady and The Patriots showed flaws to the start the year, but have quickly figured it out in the past few games. He started the year scoring only 16.1 DK PPG in the first three games, but is averaging 27.3 in the last three.

Yes, all these games were at home, but as a whole, this offense is a completely different unit, with a healthy Sony Michel helping them on the ground. They should be just fine in Solider Field and Vegas agrees, favoring them by three points, and giving them a healthy implied team total of 26.25 points. (T2 for highest of the slate) Brady should throw for multiple TDs and his ceiling is slightly higher now, with Josh Gordon (below) becoming a full time player. There really isn’t any reason to pay up at QB and I think attacking The GOAT at a career low price is the best choice for cash games this week.

RB: Christian McCaffrey: (7,700)

McCaffrey had a rough game vs The Redskins in Week 6 (13.6 DK points), but this matchup was tough for his skill set. (9th in DVOA vs passes to RBs) He should get back on track vs The Eagles, who have really struggled with pass catching backs as of late. In their last three games, this Eagles defense has given up the most catches and receiving yards to RBs in The NFL. (26 catches, 224 yards) On a per game basis, RBs are averaging 8.2/74.6 through the air when facing The Eagles. To put this in perspective, The Falcons, who everyone knows is awful at defending receiving RBs, have only allowed 5.6 CPG and 56.6 YPG in these three weeks.

Last season, in his first career game vs The Eagles, McCaffrey thrived, catching 10 of 14 targets for 56 yards and a TD. (22.4 DK points) As road underdogs (PHI -5), The Panther should be a pass first offense. Cam Newton should rely on McCaffrey out of the backfield and in the one game that they were underdogs this season, McCaffrey had his best showing as a featured back, scoring 30.9 DK points vs The Falcons in Week 2. With a $600 price drop since last week, this is the perfect time to get back on McCaffrey.

WR: Josh Reynolds: (3,500)

Cooper Kupp (knee) has already been ruled out for Sunday, putting Reynolds as The Rams’ #3 WR vs The Niners. Being the third option in any old offense usually doesn’t mean much, but this is The Rams, who are the third highest scoring unit in football, that runs three WR sets 95% of the time. (via DraftKings) If we don’t count last week, when he got hurt, Kupp was running 34.4 routes and seeing 8.2 targets per game. (24.7% market share) This opens up a sizable amount of usage to be distributed to Reynolds, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods.

Reynolds hasn’t done much to this point (3/6 targets for 37 yards), but he should garner 5-10 targets from Jared Goff, who is a QB, that always seems to spread the ball out to his offense. The matchup is also in his favor, with this Niners’ secondary ranking 26th in pass DVOA and 23rd in DVOA vs #3 WRs. Per usual, The Rams have the highest implied team total of the slate (31.25 points), by a large five points. For a full time player, that is part of the offense that is expected to score the most points of the slate, I don’t see how you can go wrong with Reynolds at a near minimum salary.

TE: David Njoku: (4,200)

After putting up three single digit DK scores to open the season, Njoku has scored 10.2, 12.9, and 18.5 DK points, since Baker Mayfield took over at QB. The targets also went up in each game, seeing 7, 11, and then 12, which results in a team high 23.4% market share during this span. Finally, after only seeing one redzone target through the first five weeks, Njoku saw two vs The Chargers this past Sunday and finally scored his first TD of the year. (18.5 DK points) Now, with the type of usage he deserves, Njoku gets the best possible matchup he could ask for vs The Bucs.

Not only are dead last in pass DVOA, but they also rank 29th in DVOA vs TEs. To the position, they have allowed a line of 7.2/97.2/0.6 though five games. (most fantasy points to TEs) The Browns currently have their highest implied team total of 2018 (23.25 points) and with this type of volume, Njoku has a solid floor and a ceiling, for a very reasonable price. (Bucs have given up three TE TDs)

Also Consider:

QB: Jameis Winston and Cam Newton. (having Greg Olsen back is huge and he scored 23.6 DK points in his last game vs The Eagles)

RB: Todd Gurley (the clear #1 option of the slate. He is back to being under $10,000 and is coming off a 200 yard rushing performance. The Niners rank 26th in DVOA and have allowed the 10th most FPG to RBs), Ezekiel Elliot (The Redskins are 30th in rush DVOA and he has seen at least 25 touches in three straight games), T.J. Yeldon (only if Leonard Fournette sits again. He is averaging 20.1 DK PPG and 16.6 in these last three without Fournette. The Texans are 2nd in rush DVOA, but The Jags are five point home favorites, and with Grant also out, Yeldon is a pretty safe bet for 20+ touches), Sony Michel (rather TD dependent, but is averaging 4.4 YPC. If the game goes as expected and The Pats get a lead, Michel will exceed value), Tarik Cohen (27.75 DK PPG the past two weeks, but just with Michel in the same game, his production depends on the game script. If they need to throw it more to keep up with The Pats, Cohen will be very involved through the air. He is averaging 7/105.5/0.5 receiving in these last two), and Peyton Barber. (don’t like chasing the points from the dream matchup vs The Falcons, but they claim he is the lead back and proved that in Week 6. He played 62% of the snaps and scored 20.6 DK points in 17 touches)

WR: Adam Thielen (he has put up over 100 yards and has seen at least 10 targets in each game. They pass the ball 67% of the time and this volume isn’t going anywhere. Especially this week vs The Jets. Thielen will face off against one of the worst slot CBs in The NFL, Parry Nickerson, who has a low PFF grade of 38.4. This gives Thielen the biggest advantage for a WR in Week 7, via PFF), Jarvis Landry (struggling right now, but still averaging 11 TPG in the last four. He has to pop off soon and this is the perfect spot, vs the worst pass defense in The NFL, in The Bucs), Robert Woods, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Gordon (Gordon played 18 snaps in each of his first two games with The Pats, but then came out and logged 63 on Sunday night vs The Chiefs. He caught five of nine targets for 42 yards in the win. This was obviously by design and I am sure he will play most of the snaps again this week. The Bears CBs are tough and they rank 1st in pass DVOA, but things have to click soon for Brady and Gordon, no matter the matchup), Marquise Goodwin (coming together right now and The Rams are the 24th in DVOA to #1 WRS and 26th in deep pass DVOA. WRs have scored the most points in The NFL against them the last three weeks and as 10 point underdogs, C.J. Beathard will be airing it out), Taylor Gabriel (over 100 yards in back to back games and if they are playing from behind, Gabriel has a solid chance of continuing this streak),  and Jermaine Kearse. (after Quincy Enunwa left the game with the ankle injury, Kearse was the main man, playing 83% of the snaps and catching 9/10 targets for 94 yards vs The Colts, which are all season highs. Enunwa has already been ruled out vs The Vikings and Kearse should be active out of the slot (78% of his snaps), with Xavier Rhodes locking up Robby Anderson outside)

TE: Zach Ertz. (19 DK PPG this season and The Panthers are 17th in DVOA vs TEs and have given up the 7th most FPs to the position)

D: Jags, Lions (Ryan Tannehill is out again and Oswieler is good for at least a few picks), and Cowboys.

PLAY THIS LINEUP

 

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