Hey everybody, I’m back again for Week 7 of the NFL season and I hope everyone had a great Week 6. As for myself, I had a solid primetime slate by rostering Lamar Miller and David Johnson in all of my lineups. Cheers to an awful Colts defense!
Let’s take a look at my picks from last week and see what I got right/wrong. I had mentioned Russell Wilson as a cash quarterback last week, which didn’t go so well. I had actually moved off of him by Sunday after hearing more reports about the weather. Thank goodness I moved to the second quarterback I had mentioned in Marcus Mariota and he just lit up the Browns which came as no surprise. Wilson was a big miss for me because I did have a lot of exposure to him, but having Mariota as my other highest owned quarterback helped tremendously.
All three of the running backs I mentioned were absolute studs last week. McCoy and Miller were fairly obvious, but a lot of people were more on Bell and Murray. I had much more exposure to Miller because I think the Colts defense is legit awful. The guy a lot of people weren’t on was David Johnson. I said he was matchup proof and he once again proved that by dominating the Jets defense.
Everyone knew it was a running back week and by doing so we had to find cheap value at the receiver position. At the time I wrote the article Will Fuller was expected to play, but he ended up not getting any snaps. Tavon Austin ended up being the wrong Rams receiver to play as Kenny Britt destroyed the bad Lions defense and John Brown had a pretty boring night as well only scoring 10DK points. Definitely have a few better options this week.
At tight end I am still wondering how Delanie Walker had such a bad game. He was highly owned for a reason and it’s fairly odd he did so poorly. Could be a great spot this week to jump back on board when people will be going away from him as he’s facing the aforementioned Colts defense. Jimmy Graham had another solid outing, but needs to find the endzone. Both defenses I mentioned did well, especially the Cardinals with 2 interceptions, 1 sack and only 3 points given up. The Titans did exactly what I thought they would and got 6 sacks, but didn’t manage to get any turnovers and gave up 26 points. 6DK points ho hum.
Let’s take a look at the players I have my eye on for Week 7!
ATL – Matt Ryan ($7200) – Matty Ice has been on an absolute roll this season and I expect that to continue this week against the Chargers. They have a depleted secondary and one that Julio Jones should dominate. They have the highest team total in Vegas at 29.75 points, which is extremely high. Falcons offense looks like another solid bet this week to put up a ton of points with Matt Ryan leading the ship.
*Cash* TEN – Marcus Mariota ($6000) – Mariota is one of my favorite quarterbacks on DraftKings because he’s always cheap and has extremely high upside scoring over 30 points several times in his short career. This week he gets an awful Indianapolis team that is ranked 31st in overall DVOA on Football Outsiders. I’ll be rolling with Mariota this week in cash with his rushing ability, cheap price, matchup and high upside. All things you gotta love.
*Tournament* TB – Jameis Winston ($5900) – Winston is a no-brainer for me this week. He’s lost his grandpa receiver in Vincent Jackson, which probably helps this offense. You can bet he’s going to force feed Mike Evans all day long against the worst defense in the league against #1 receivers. The fast paced 49ers are going to give more plays to Jameis who should have a big game this week. Pair him with Evans, Brate or even Adam Humphries who should get more looks now with Jackson out of the picture and you’re feeling a little wild.
TEN – DeMarco Murray ($7200) – Flow chart time. Are the Colts playing? ->Yes? -> Start the opposing running back. Pretty simple right? The Colts are the worst team in the NFL in rush defense and just got torched by Lamar Miller. Murray is my favorite play this week and will be very chalky. Fading him completely is going to be extremely risky given this matchup and how many touches he gets.
*Tournament* KC – Spencer Ware ($5800) – Spencer Ware is #sneakygood. This dude flies under the radar every week and he’s one of my favorite tournament plays this week. Everyone is going to be rostering the Chiefs pass game because they’re going against New Orleans and those who don’t will likely roster Jamaal Charles because he’s much more recognizable. Spencer Ware easily out-snapped him and out-touched him last week and I expect the same this week against an awful Saints run defense.
*Tournament* WAS – Matt Jones ($4200) – I rarely roster Matt Jones, but when I do, I make sure he’s going against the worst defense in the league. He’s facing the Detroit Lions this week in what should be sneaky game stack opportunity. The Lions grade out as the worst overall defense and are 26th against the run in DVOA. Jones had 16 carries for 135 yard and a touchdown last week against a pretty darn good Eagles defense. He should dominate this game as well.
*Cash* CIN – AJ Green ($8600) – A.J. Green is going against the Cleveland Browns who are still awful like every other year. The Browns rank 30th against the pass and the Andy Dalton-AJ Green stack will certainly be popular this week. They have the third highest implied team total at 27.75 and he regularly sees double digit targets. A.J. Green should eat a lot of invisible cereal this week.
JAC – Allen Robinson ($7300) – Allen Robinson should be low owned this week because everyone is going to be on Green and Julio. Priced as the 11th wide receiver this week, Robinson has yet to have a big breakout game, but that should change this week against a bad Oakland defense and the potential for a shootout. Oakland gives up the most DK points in the league to wide receivers and a game stack here is definitely an option I’ll be considering.
*Tournament* BAL – Mike Wallace ($5800) – Wallace will be going against the Jets awful pass defense that’s allowed the second most points to receivers on DraftKings. The Ravens have a banged-up Steve Smith who might not see the field and the Jets secondary is just bad. They do have a great run defense that should force Flacco to throw the ball a ton and Wallace is a guy that’s seen 9, 11, and 9 targets in his last three games. He’s a boom or bust type of player, but I think he can have a big game this week.
KC – Travis Kelce ($5300) – I mentioned Spencer Ware earlier and he’s a great tournament play in my opinion. Pairing him with Kelce and Alex Smith gives you even more leverage over those people who went with the Smith-Maclin stack. The Chiefs/Saints game has the second highest over/under on the slate at 50 points so there should be plenty to go around. The Saints rank 25th against TE’s in DVOA and give up the 20th most points to the position meaning Kelce could definitely dominate here. I expect the Chiefs to move the ball easily at Arrowhead Stadium and it’s definitely one of my favorite stacks on the week.
*Cash* TB – Cameron Brate ($2900) – I mentioned Jameis Winston earlier and if a Winston-Evans stack is too chalky for you then I’d highly suggest Brate this week. He’s under $3k this week and facing a 49ers defense that allows the 24th most points to tight ends. With Vincent Jackson gone and Doug Martin not expected to play again, I expect Brate to get quite a bit of targets after Mike Evans.
New England Patriots ($2900) – They’re facing the Pittsburgh Steelers at home which usually isn’t ideal. The Steelers obviously have weapons that scare me, but they have a bad backup quarterback in Landry Jones that’s flat out not good. Check out Antonio Brown’s splits with him vs Roethlisberger as his quarterback because they’re ugly. I’d be very wary of the Steelers skill position guys this week as they’re priced like Roethlisberger is playing. Patriots should dominate this game forcing Landry to throw more than they’d like, creating more chances for turnovers.
Buffalo Bills ($3400) – The Buffalo Bills have the highest sack rate in the NFL and they’re going against the worst pass protecting team in the league in the Dolphins who give up a sack on 9.1% of their dropbacks. That sets up very well for pressure and pressure creates turnovers. Bills could end up with 6 sacks or more in this one and if the bad version of Tannehill shows up they could be in for a huge game.
Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28 — Also check out Kevin’s DraftKings Picks Below…