What’s up guys. Alex here, and below are my DraftKings sleeper picks for the Week 7 Sunday main slate. If you looking for cash game plays, be sure to read my first article for Week 7, via this link. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
QB: C.J. Beathard: (4,800)
Beathard’s current salary just doesn’t reflect how well he has played since Jimmy Garoppolo (knee) went down. In three matchups with The Chargers, Cardinals, and Packers, he is averaging 21.2 DK PPG. All three of these defenses rank inside the top 15 in pass DVOA. Also, it’s worth noting that his best showing was the only home game of the three (27.66 DK points vs The Cardinals), which is where he will be this Sunday vs The Rams. This defense has slipped dramatically since the start of the year, allowing the 7th most FPs to QBs since Week 4, compared to giving up the fewest FPs in The NFL during the first three weeks of the season. This NFC West matchup currently possesses the highest O/U game total of the main slate and The Niners are expected to be trailing. (52.5 points, LAR -10)
Beathard will likely throw it around 40 times, which is more than enough volume for him to exceed value. Last week, vs The Packers, he scored 18.9 DK points in only 23 attempts. His willingness to rush is obviously a factor in this, but in these three starts he is scoring 0.6 DK points per attempt, bringing him to a 23.3 DK point projection if we put his throws exactly at 40. This is obviously isn’t a stable projection, but it shows you how effective Beathard has been in his limited time. The QBs I mentioned in my first post of the week are safer bets, but as the week goes on, I am more and more comfortable with dropping down to Beathard, not only in GPPs, but cash games as well. (the perfect way to fit in Todd Gurleys) I am having a hard time guessing his ownership, but QBs are usually spread out in GPPs, and Beathard shouldn’t crack 10% in The Milly Maker. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
TE: George Kittle: (5,000)
I will be pairing Beathard with Marquise Goodwin, but I also like rostering him and Kittle, as this stack will be less owned. Against The Packers on MNF, Kittle had trouble (7.0 DK points) vs this secondary (12th in DVOA vs TEs), but he still saw a solid six targets from his former college teammate in Beathard. Since the two friends got back together in Week 4, Kittle has seen a 18.6% market share and is scoring 15.7 DK PPG, even when including this past Monday night.
The Rams have held TEs to only 12.02 FPPG (8th in DVOA vs TEs), but if go and look at their schedule the only other real threat at TE they have gone against is Jared Cook in Week 1. In that game, Cook shocked the football world, having one of his best career games, catching 9/12 targets for a whopping 180 yards. (30 DK points) That was when their defense was at full strength and they are now a far different unit in Week 7. As heavy underdogs, the chances will be there for Kittle and he is my favorite pivot off the chalky Njoku.
WR: Antonio Callaway: (4,300)
Callaway has done next to nothing since his 17.8 DK point game vs The Saints in Week 2, but this Sunday, he gets a chance to redeem himself, vs the hopeless Bucs. This secondary is honestly laughable right now, giving up 51.5 FPPG to WRs since Week 3, which is the highest mark the league. (dead last in pass DVOA and overall DVOA) Each of their three starting CBs have PFF grades under 50 and they have been terrible at defending the long ball. (28th in deep pass DVOA) In The Browns’ last four games, Callaway has held a 20.7% target share for this offense and last week, with WR Rashard Higgins out (knee), he only missed two snaps. (97%)
This was a season high for Callaway and The Browns are expecting to be without Higgins at least for one more game. (DNP through Thursday’s practice) This puts Callaway in a near every down role in the best possible matchup. For good reason, everyone is all over Jarvis Landry and David Njoku in this spot, but are basically eliminating Callaway, because of his recent production. (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) The floor is clearly the lowest of their pass catchers, but the ceiling is rather solid, considering he is the one most likely to bring in a deep ball for a TD. At only $4,300 and a very low ownership, Callaway makes a ton of sense as part of a Brown’s or CLE TB game stack.
QB: Baker Mayfield and Carson Wentz. (has been very consistent, scoring 24.7 DK PPG in his last three and The Panthers are 21st in pass DVOA)
RB: James White (always a strong PPR option and the higher price should keep his ownership very low), Carlos Hyde, and Matt Breida. (dealing with many injuries right now, but if he is active for this game, Breida has strong upside in this setting. They completely eschewed Alfred Morris from this backfield vs The Packers, not giving him a single touch and only one snap. Raheem Mostert was involved in the ground game, but if The Niners get behind, Breida is the back that has PPR upside. He is running a route 52% of the time he is one field and I could see him hauling in a handful of balls in this game, on top of his robust 6.8 YPC)
WR: Michael Thomas, Julian Edelman, Allen Robinson (The Pats are 29th in DVOA vs #1 WRs and have looked very slow at defending athletic WRs as of late. Plus, being at home is a boost for Mitchell Trubinksy and this whole offense), Keke Coutee (slowed down last week vs a sneaky good Bills secondary, but before that, was averaging 21 DK PPG. Now, facing off against The Jags, targets should funnel to Keke, with Jaylen Rasmey working Deandre Hopkins), and Tre’Quan Smith. (super deep flier, but with Ted Ginn on IR, Smith is going to see a larger role going forward. Ginn was out last week and a season high 44 snaps, Smith caught all three of his targets for 111 yards and two TDs. He isn’t going to be a volume play, but his big play upside will always keep him in play this soft of a price, even vs an elite Ravens d)
TE: Rob Gronkowski (just a price point play. He hasn’t been this cheap in almost four years. The Bears are average down the middle, ranking 16th in DVOA vs TEs) and Greg Olsen. (only missed one snap in his return and saw seven targets vs The Redskins. He only caught four of those passes for 48 yards, but I expect him to be more involved in his second game back)
D: Ravens, Dolphins, and Jets.