These are my favorite values for The DraftKings’ Week 8 Sunday main slate. There is only ten games to target, but as always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 8 sleeper picks, that will be posted later in the week @Hunta512.
QB: Aaron Rodgers: (6,400)
Rodgers has been brilliant in his last two games (32.5 DK PPG) and now, fresh off the bye week, he will be heading to LA to take on the undefeated Rams. To no surprise, this game has the highest O/U game total of the main slate (56.5 points) and The Packers are big underdogs. (LAR -9.5) This should make this pass first offense (66% of the time they are throwing, 4th highest in The NFL) be even more reliant on scoring through the air. With The NFL’s most efficient offense on the other side, Rodgers is going to be playing catch up all game long and he should throw it over 45 times.
In the last three instances he has been an underdog and the total was 53 points or more, Rodgers has scored 26.81 DK PPG. Not only has the bye week given Rodgers some time to heal his knee, but it also has brought both Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison back into the fold. The eventual Hall of Famer now has all of his pass catchers at his disposal. The Rams are 9th in team DVOA, but we are talking about Aaron Rodgers here, at a serious discount. He is an extremely strong target, that brings both safety and upside to your lineup.
RB: Kareem Hunt: (7,100)
Hunt’s expansion in the passing game has vaulted him back into the top tier of fantasy RBs. Ever since only seeing a single target in each of the first three games, Hunt has seen 4.5 TPG, bringing his modest 12.1 DK PPG average in Weeks 1-3, all the way up to 28.9 DK PPG in his past four. He is averaging 20 touches a game and this Sunday, him and The Chiefs are home favorites vs The Broncos who are 28th in rush DVOA.
Kansas City has an implied team of 31.75 points (2nd highest of the slate) and in the four career games Hunt has been a part of a team total of 28 points or more, he is scoring 21.65 DK PPG. He should score at least on TD and at only $7,100, Hunt is the best way to get exposure to this scorching hot Chiefs’ offense.
WR: Jordy Nelson: (4,700)
With Amari Cooper gone and traded to Dallas, Nelson has to see an uptick in targets going forward. Cooper saw 5.3 TPG and those targets should mostly go to Nelson, Jared Cook, Jalen Richard. Nelson has been effective as a Raider, hauling in 70% of his targets and turning five red zone chances into three TDs. (12.9 DK PPG) His 13.6% target share should jump up to around 15-18% with Cooper out of the picture and this week, he is in a solid spot to start things off as the new #1 WR, vs The Colts. (21st in pass DVOA) In their last four games, this Colt’s secondary is allowing WR groups to catch 17.25 balls a game, at a high 77.5% catch rate. (both 2nd most in each stat during this span)
As three point underdogs and possibly a more pass driven game play for The Raiders without Marshawn Lynch (groin), Nelson could see double digit targets is this home tilt, that has an O/U game total of 50 points. Obviously, things were different when Rodgers was throwing him the pig skin in Green Bay, but in the five home games that Nelson has played in with a total over 50 points, he is averaging 26.7 DK PPG. His floor isn’t the safest, but with the lack of cheap options at WR, Nelson needs to be considered.
TE: C.J. Uzomah: (3,500)
Since Tyler Eifert went down (ankle), Uzomah has been in a full time role for The Bengals. In the last three games, he has played a team high 93.3% of the snaps, seen 10.6% target share, and is averaging 9.0 DK PPG. These numbers wont wow you, but his price has only risen $100 to $3,500 for his best matchup of the season. So far, this Bucs’ defense has been the laughing stock of The NFL, allowing a league high 32.7 PPG. They rank dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA, but also are 30th in DVOA at defending TEs. They have let TEs catch 80% of their targets and have given up the most FPPG to the position.
Just for an added bonus, this Buc’s secondary is at their weakest when defending passes down the middle. (30th in DVOA vs middle of the field passes) In their last three games, Trey Burton scored 16.6 DK points, Austin Hooper had a season best 22.1 DK points, and David Njoku produced 15.2 DK points. Each of these TEs scored a TD. Uzomah has a great chance of continuing this trend, with The Bengals having their highest team total of the season. (29.25 points) In cash games, you aren’t paying up at TE and Uzomah seems like the most logical punt to utilize.
QB: Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger (at home and has an implied team total of 29.5 points. In the 24 career home games The Steelers have seen an implied team total over 25, Big Ben is averaging 26.1 DK PPG), and Jameis Wintson. (30.9 DK PPG as the starter, The Bengals are 24th in pass DVOA, and this game has the second highest total, at 54.5 points)
RB: Todd Gurley, James Conner (34.7 DK PPG on 24.5 touches in the two before the bye. L’eVeon Bell hasn’t reported to the team and Conner will dominate the touches again, at home, against The Browns, who are 1st in pass DVOA, but 25th in rush), Joe Mixon, Kerryon Johnson (better if Theo Riddick is out. Last week, with the third down back sidelined, Johnson broke out for 22.9 DK points on a season high 22 touches vs The Dolphins), Jalen Richard (has broken double digit DK points in his last two and will see a bigger role without Lynch and Cooper. At only $4,200, Richard is a decent option, that should be able to catch around five balls vs this Colts defense that has allowed the second most total receptions to RBs), Isaiah Crowell. (with Bilal Powell placed on IR, you have to think they rely on Crowell more, at least to start. The floor is very low on the road against The Bears, but if they get the ball inside the five, the ball will be going to Crowell)
WR: Antonio Brown (difficult matchup vs the top ranked defense in pass DVOA, but he is at home, rested off a bye, and is the cheapest he has been in over a year. At Hines Field, AB averages a large 7.8 more DK PPG), A.J. Green (via PFF, Green has the biggest advantage for a WR on the main slate and The Bucs have surrendered the 2nd most FPPG to WRs), Davante Adams (no matter how healthy this WR corps is, Adams will lead the way. The Rams are 8th in DVOA vs #1 WRs, but he could see a huge amount of volume as they fight to come back), JuJu Smith-Schuster, Robert Woods (will play mostly from the slot with Cooper Kupp doubtful. Last week, without Kupp, Woods only caught 5/7 targets, but they beat The Niners by 29 points. They are heavier favorites again, but The Packers should make it more interesting, helping Woods and all of The Rams), Emmanuel Sanders (will be very active playing from behind vs The Chiefs in Arrowhead. He is getting 10.3 TPG and 24.6 DK PPG in his last three), and Doug Baldwin (6/8 for 81 vs The Raiders and they should air it out, as three point underdogs in Detroit).
TE: David Njoku (14.2 DK PPG on 9.0 TPG since Baker Mayfield began starting. The Browns will be down in this game and The Steelers are very weak vs TEs, ranking 24th in DVOA vs the position and allowing the third most FPPG) and Vance McDonald. (ran a season high 38 routes in Week 6 and brought in 7/8 targets for 68 yards. Hopefully during the bye these coaches realized McDonald is the better receiving TE and keep playing him more than Jesse James, because this matchup is juicy vs The Bengals, who are 24th in pass DVOA)
D: Bears, Ravens, and Steelers. (by far the best value. Only $2,300 at home, vs The Browns who have a low implied team total of 21.5 points)