Hey everybody, I’m back again for Week 8 of the NFL season and I hope everyone had a great Week 7.
Let’s take a look at my picks from last week and see what I got right/wrong. I wasn’t all that pleased with the quarterback picks of Matt Ryan, Mariota and Winston. They all were fine and wouldn’t bury your team, but they certainly didn’t go off. I went with DeMarco and Spencer Ware in cash after hearing the news that Jamaal Charles was having more knee troubles. Both were solid plays that got you over 20 points. One of my favorite tournament plays was Matt Jones and he failed miserably. Going against the terrible Lions defense, Jones couldn’t get any yards and ended up a big bust. My wide receivers were solid with A.J. Green going off and Mike Wallace catching 10 balls for 120 yards. I’m still perplexed as to how Allen Robinson managed 2 catches for 9 yards. We all figured he and Bortles would regress, but holy cow. Brate and Kelce were two of my favorite plays and neither of them delivered what we expected. Hopefully you guys had plenty of exposure to the star tight end of the weekend Jack Doyle. Football is a funny game.
Let’s take a look at the players I have my eye on for Week 8!
OAK – Derek Carr ($5900) – A lot of people will be on the Winston train this week and for good reason. It might be a good idea to roster the other quarterback in tournaments given his price and decent matchup against a bad Tampa Bay pass defense. They’re in the bottom half of the league in pass defense DVOA and 25th against #2 receivers. This game should be close with a spread of just 1 point and with an over/under of 49 I like the chances of a shootout.
*Tournament* BUF – Tyrod Taylor ($5200) – If you’re looking to go super cheap at quarterback, Tyrod could be your guy. The Bills will be down most of this game and Tyrod will be forced to throw a lot and make plays. He played well against the Patriots at New England with 16 DK points and if he goes over 20 he’s certainly given you enough value with that cheap price tag. Also, worth noting the Patriots are the 25th ranked pass defense on FootballOutsiders DVOA.
*Cash* TB – Jameis Winston ($5700) – Winston is a lock this week. He’s $5700, which is just laughable with this matchup and his ability. He’s my cash quarterback this week because the Raiders are a bottom five defense and he’s at home in Tampa. The Raiders are 27th in DK points to quarterbacks, 26th in DVOA pass defense and 27th against the run. The Buccaneers should be able to move the ball frequently and with the Raiders being able to do the same, I like the offensive potential of a game stack (as will everybody else).
Other quarterbacks I like include Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.
SEA – Christine Michael ($7300) – Facing the Saints in the Superdome, the Seahawks could hopefully be in for a breakout offensive game. The Saints have given up the most DK points to running backs and rank in the bottom four of overall and run defense DVOA. They’re simply not good. This game has the 4th highest over/under at 48 points and could be a sneaky game stack since a lot of people might be scared of the Seahawks defense. The Saints are a pretty incredible offense at home, which I’m sure you were aware of.
KC – Spencer Ware ($6800) – Running back against the Colts? Yes, please. Ware continues to be a fantastic running back and goes against the putrid Colts defense this week in Indianapolis. He continues to be a playmaker scoring over 20 points in the last two weeks. Indianapolis ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and 27th in DK points to running backs. This game has the second highest over/under of 50 points. It’s hard to trust the Chiefs pass game, but a Smith-Kelce-Ware-Hilton game stack could get you some leverage against people who only go with a typical Smith-Kelce stack. Get him in your lineups.
*Tournament* SD – Melvin Gordon ($5700) – Gordon should be low owned this week given his matchup against the Denver Broncos. At just $5,700, Gordon is getting over 20 touches a game. Volume=fantasy points (usually). Last week he saw 7 targets, catching 6 of them, which is just icing on the cake of his usual 20 carries. Denver is dominant through the air, but much worse against the run ranking in the middle of the NFL. They gave up 5.6 yards a carry last week against the Texans. Gordon carried the ball 27 times against Denver in their previous matchup, but only managed 94 yards. If Gordon can bust one this time, he could be in for a solid game with very low ownership.
Other plays I like include Matt Forte, Jacquizz Rodgers, Devontae Booker and Lamar Miller.
*Cash* TB – Mike Evans ($8100) – Evans will be very popular along with his quarterback going against the Raiders. I don’t mind rostering them both in my cash lineup to give a little more variance and upside because I love this matchup and the targets that Evans sees with Jackson out. The Raiders are 26th in DVOA against the pass and Evans has seen at least 11 targets in his last 5 games. He has the upside you need to win a GPP with four games over 20 points and two of them near 30. Volume, volume, volume.
GB – Ty Montgomery ($5300) – The Packers/Falcons has the highest over/under on the week at 52.5. This game should certainly have a lot of touchdowns and I’ll have a lot of exposure to several players including Montgomery. At just $5300, he has 10 catches in each of his last two games including 9 carries for 60 yards in his last one. Knile Davis still shouldn’t be all that ready to play and the Packers don’t run very often anyway, but when they have, Montgomery has been extremely effective. Rodgers has looked his way a ton recently and with Desmond Trufant looming in Atlanta’s secondary, Rodgers could be looking Montgomery’s way again.
SEA – Doug Baldwin ($6900) – Rostering receivers against the Saints is almost always a good idea. It goes without saying they rank near the bottom in almost every defensive statistic. Baldwin has been somewhat of a disappointment this season along with the entire Seahawks offense, but I think this could be the week they break out. Last week against a much better Cardinals defense he had 6 catches for 69 yards. The Saints should be able to score some points at home in this one and I like Baldwin to see 9-10 targets in this one.
Other picks I like include the Jets receivers, TY Hilton and Julio Jones (obviously)
HOU – C.J. Fiedorowicz ($2800) – The Texans will be facing the worst defense in the league at home this week when they go against the Lions. The Lions give up the the 4th most DK points to tight ends this season and Fiedorowicz has seen 8, 7, and 7 targets in his last three games, scoring 20 points against the Colts two weeks ago. At just $2,800 C.J. should easily pay off his salary and then some.
KC – Travis Kelce ($4900) – Kelce has been extremely disappointing in his last two weeks against great matchups in the Saints and Raiders. He has another one this week in the Colts who rank 27th in DK points to tight ends and dead last in DVOA against the position. People may be off Kelce given his recent game log and it could be a great time to jump back on.
Other tight ends I like include Jack Doyle and Cameron Brate.
*Tournament* San Diego Chargers ($2400) – A contrarian stack this week could be Melvin Gordon and the Chargers defense. Since the return of Joey Bosa, the Chargers have looked better on defense scoring 4, 12, and 5 DK points. They played the Broncos two weeks ago only giving up 13 points with a sack and a safety. I like their chances to be an under-owned cheap option that can meet value and give you some upside going against the unproven quarterback in Trevor Siemian.
Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28