Below are my favorite values for The DraftKings’ Week 9 Sunday main slate. There is only ten games to target, but as always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 9 sleeper picks, that will be towards the end of the week. @Hunta512.
QB: Cam Newton: (6,600)
Newton has been exceptional as of late (26 DK PPG in last three) and this week, he gets the best possible matchup he could ask for, vs The Bucs at home. Quickly to refresh your mind, this Tampa Bay defense has been horrendous, ranking dead last in overall DVOA and pass DVOA. They have given up a league high 20 passing TDs, have only picked off one single pass, and are allowing the highest YPA in the league. (2nd most FPPG) They have been even worse on the road, allowing opponents to score 39.75 PPG, compared to 27.6 PPG at home.
The Panthers have the second highest implied team total of the slate (30.75 points) and this is largest team total Newton has ever played behind in his career. But, for some reference to his success when his team is in a great spot like this, he is averaging 27 DK PPG in the five instances his team saw an implied team total of at least 28 points. Oh, and for those games, Newton had an average salary of $7,620 on DraftKings. He is criminally underpriced at $6,600 and should easily score 25-30 DK points this Sunday.
RB: Phillip Lindsay: (5,500)
As expected, Lindsay was extremely effective with Royce Freeman (ankle) out in Week 8. With a season high 21 touches, he produced his best DK score to date, with 20.2 DK points vs The Chiefs. Up until Wednesday, Freeman hasn’t practiced this week and he is trending towards missing his second straight contest with the high ankle sprain. If he does indeed sit, like I am expecting, Lindsay becomes an awesome target again, even vs this Texans defense that is 1st rush DVOA.
The undrafted rookie only has eight games on his NFL resume, but Lindsay has been tremendous whenever the ball is in his hands, averaging 5.7 YPC and 1.0 DK point per touch. With another 20+ touches coming his way, It’s hard to envision Lindsay not getting at least three times value, no matter the defense he is facing. At this price, he is a strong mid-tier target, that is a fine complement to Todd Gurley in your cash game lineup.
WR: Courtland Sutton: (3,900)
With Demaryius Thomas shipped off to Houston, Sutton now steps in a big role for The Broncos. Thomas was seeing a 19.8% target share this season, at 7.0 TPG. Sutton was operating as the #3 WR in this offense, playing 69% of the snaps and garnering 4.6 TPG, but now, he should approach 80% of the snaps and see 5-10 targets on a weekly basis. The second round pick from this past draft has been showing signs all season that he is ready to be a full time player, producing 1.65 DK points per target.
He is in a prime position to start making some noise as The Broncos’ new #2 WR this week vs The Texans, who are 14th in pass DVOA and 30th in DVOA vs #2 WRs. Natrell Jamerson will be the CB that defends him the most and he has been awful this season, allowing 3.03 yards per route covered, which is the highest mark for a CB playing in Week 8. (51.5 PFF grade) There is no doubt he will be one of the highest owned players, if not the highest, but in my best advice, don’t over think this, and start every lineup with Sutton.
TE: Greg Olsen: (4,700)
Last Sunday, Olsen had his best performance since returning from the foot injury, catching all four of his targets for 56 yards and a TD against The Ravens. (15.6 DK points) He has only missed three total snaps in these last three games and is averaging 5.3 TPG. The Bucs also present a juicy matchup for TEs, ranking 26th in DVOA vs the position.
Additionally, they are 30th at defending passes down the middle of the field, which is where Olsen does most of his work and his one on one matchup vs safety Justin Evans (58.3 PPF grade) gives him the largest advantage for a TE in Week 9. (via PPF) With the lack of appealing TE options under $4,000, Olsen seems like the best target at the position for the main slate.
QB: Jared Goff and Ryan Fitzpatrick. (in only 15 attempts, Fitzmagic scored 19.56 DK points vs The Bengals. It has already been confirmed he will start vs The Panthers, which is an above average matchup, with them at 20th in pass DVOA. Newton is much safer, but from raw projection stand point, Fitzpatrick is the best value on the board)
RB: Todd Gurley (this Rams vs Saints game has the highest total for a main slate contest this season, at 60 points. This factor, along with Gurley’s tremendous recent success, of 34.9 DK PPG in his last four, makes him a near must play for cash games), Christian McCaffrey, Kareem Hunt (The Browns are 27th in rush DVOA and he is a 8.5 point favorite), Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and Chris Carson. (it’s always tough to guess which Seahawk back will lead the way, but following their bye, it was all Carson in the win over The Lions. In 66% of the snaps, he turned 27 touches into 23.4 DK points. They probably won’t have a lead all game again vs The Chargers, but if his big workload was by design and not due to game flow, Carson will out do this salary. The Chargers are 21st in rush DVOA)
WR: Adam Thielen, Mike Evans (having Fitzpatrick back should be a boost and he has strong matchup vs James Bradberry, who has a 60.5 PFF grade), Julio Jones (awesome price for him and The Redskins have given up the second most FPPG over their last four), Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp (he is back from the concussion and is rating as my best WR value of the slate. The Saints 29th in pass DVOA and their slot corner, P.J. Williams, has been putrid this season, with a very low PFF grade of 34), Kenny Golladay (Golden Tate being traded will bring more targets to Golladay and Marvin Jones. Jones should be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes, which should force Matthew Stafford to look more towards Golladay), Sammy Watkins (popped for 8/107/2 vs The Broncos last week and he could be Mahomes’ main WR again, with top CB Denzel Ward giving most of his attention to Tyreek Hill), and D.J. Moore (great play vs this Buc’s secondary if Torrey Smith is out again. Last week with Smith sidelined, Moore caught 5/6 targets for 90 yards in a polar opposite matchup vs The Ravens)
TE: Travis Kelce and O.J. Howard. (The Panthers are 28th in DVOA vs TEs and Howard averaged 15.9 DK PPG in Fitzpatrick’s first two starts of the season)
D: Bears (obvious best play if you want to pay up. The Bills have a very low implied team total of 13.8 points), Panthers, Chiefs, Steelers, and Broncos.