Hey everybody, I’m back again for Week 9 of the NFL season and I hope everyone had a great Week 8! Can’t believe we’re at the halfway point already so let’s take advantage while we still can.
It was definitely an odd week in football as most of the chalk underperformed. Hope you didn’t stuff your face full of chalk this week as it probably killed you. Let’s take a look at my picks from last week and see what I got right/wrong. My first mention was Derek Carr and not to toot my own horn, but boy was I right. Carr dominated the Bucs with 513 yards and 4 touchdowns. I had tons of him, but not enough Cooper unfortunately. Winston and Tyrod both had decent games, but nothing too spectacular.
Going against the Broncos, Melvin Gordon was extremely low owned and got you 22.5 points, but my other running backs weren’t as fortunate. Christine Michael only got 10 rush attempts in what seems to be an awful Seattle offense (he did at least score a touchdown) and Spencer Ware got hurt early in the game. Baldwin and Evans both underperformed, while Ty Montgomery got the sickle cell trait that seems to pop up every week now. Anybody have a clue what that actually is?
My tight ends picks were both great with C.J. Fiedorowicz putting up 15 DK points and Travis Kelce dominating the Colts for 26 points. At just $2,400, the Chargers defense was low owned and put up 13 DK points, but the Jets struggled as Josh McCown torched them for 341 yards.
Let’s take a look at the players I have my eye on for Week 9!
*Cash* DAL – Dak Prescott ($6100) – Going against the Cleveland Browns, Dak is going to be one of the higher owned quarterbacks this week, but because ownership is spread out with quarterbacks, it’s not something I’m worried about. He’s been phenomenal this season and with Dez Bryant back, Dak is in a great spot to go over 18 DK points again like he’s done in his last six games. Cleveland ranks 29th in DK points to quarterbacks and I’d be shocked if Dak doesn’t kill it here.
*Tournament* SF – Colin Kaepernick ($5600) – I’m far from a Kaepernick believer, but playing at home against the Saints should be a matchup he should be able to exploit. He has 66 and 84 rushing yards in his last two games and the Saints are a bottom four defense in nearly every statistic. This game has the second highest over/under at 52 points behind the Colts/Packers. Rostering Kaepernick at his cheap price also allows you to target the higher priced running backs that everyone is going to want this week.
CAR – Cam Newton ($7000) – When rostering an expensive quarterback this week, most will turn to Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees because of their easy matchups, but it might be wise to hop on the Newton train when he’s lower owned like he will be this week. Newton has gone over 30 DK points twice this season so the upside is still there. This is a must win game for the Panthers to stay in the playoff hunt and as long as Jon “vulture” Stewart doesn’t steal a few touchdowns from him, Cam could have a great game and get back to his MVP form.
Other quarterbacks I like include Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Drew Brees.
DAL – Ezekiel Elliott ($7900) – Zek is going to be the chalk running back this week as he’s facing the Cleveland Browns. He’s been nothing short of spectacular and he’s easily in line for another solid outing. Besides the obvious running upside, he’s also seen four targets in each of the last three weeks. Cleveland is allowing 4.8 yards per attempt which is third worst in the league and they rank 28th in the league in DK points to running backs. Lock him in.
SF – Carlos Hyde ($6100) – The Saints have given up the most touchdowns to opposing running backs so far this season with 12. Hyde has had two weeks off from a bye and an injury so he should be ready to go for this one. Hopefully the high price tag keep people off him this week, but he should be decently owned. Playing at home against one of the worst defenses in a high scoring game should favor Hyde this week. I don’t mind a Kaepernick, Hyde and Saints receiver(s) game stack.
*Tournament* LA – Todd Gurley ($5900) – Gurley is priced as the 13th running back this week, which is pretty remarkable given his talent. When looking for tournament plays I like to use talented guys that are priced down because of their matchup. Gurley should go fairly low owned in a matchup at home versus the Carolina Panthers. He’s averaging 4.5 catches a game over his last four games so it appears the Rams are finally utilizing his entire skill set. Being game flow independent definitely helps as the Panthers might be winning this one comfortably.
Other running backs I like include LeVeon Bell, Matt Forte and Theo Riddick.
*Tournament* BAL – Mike Wallace ($5600) – Wallace is almost always a tournament play only, especially with Steve Smith probably out again as of now. Wallace has seen 9, 11, 9 and 13 targets over his last 4 games and that should continue this week against a bad Pittsburgh secondary. Pittsburgh ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA and 26th against the opposing #1 receiver. Gotta love the high ceiling of Wallace this week.
MIA – Jarvis Landry – ($7100) – Landry will be going against one of the worst pass defenses in the league when they face Jets in Miami. They rank 31st in DK points to wide receivers and have given up 9 pass plays of over 40 yards, which is second behind the Raiders. It’s difficult to attack the Jets on the ground, so look for Tannehill to look for his favorite target early and often. Landry has seen over 8 targets in every game but one this season and he’ll probably see double digits this week.
IND – Donte Moncrief ($5800) – At just $5,800 Moncrief is a great value play this week that will probably be highly owned. The Colts will play in Lambeau against the Packers who excel at stopping the run, but mediocre against the pass with their depleted secondary. Keep an eye on the health of TY Hilton this week. If he’s out, targets are sure to be forced to Moncrief as the Colts receiving options are extremely limited. In his first game back from injury, Moncrief played nearly on 59 of 66 snaps and saw 9 targets including a touchdown so no injury concerns at this point.
Other wide receivers I like include the Packers receivers, Dez Bryant and Brandin Cooks.
MIN – Kyle Rudolph ($4000) – Rudolph will be the chalk at tight end this week because he’s facing the worst team in the league at defending his position. The Vikings are 6 point favorites at home against one of the worst overall defenses in the league. Rudolph has seen at least 6 targets in every game this season except one and this week should be no different. He might be highly owned, but pairing him with Bradford could make a nice tournament lineup given nobody is going to be on Bradford. This Vikings team plays much better at home in that new stadium so look for a bounce back here.
SD – Antonio Gates ($3000) – Since coming back from injury, Gates has seen 9 and 10 targets in the last two weeks, which is absurd for a guy that’s priced at $3000. He out snapped Henry last week 55 to 45 and has out-targeted him 19 to 7 over the last two weeks. It seems Rivers is going back to his trusted tight end and going against a Titans team that allows the 25th most points to tight ends, I like Gates this week.
Other tight ends I like include Lance Kendricks and Greg Olson.
Kansas City Chiefs ($3500) – The chalky play at defense is definitely going to be the Chiefs. They’re playing at home against the turnover prone Jaguars. Bortles has been nothing short of atrocious this season and with Marcus Peters in the secondary, I can easily see a 3 interception game from Bortles. Fading the chalk defense does work out sometimes though because it is a very unpredictable position. I’ll definitely have exposure, but probably not as much as the field.
*Tournament* Green Bay ($2700) – Playing at home against the Colts, the Packers should easily be able to get after Andrew Luck. The Colts offensive line is awful and gave up 6 sacks to the Chiefs last week at home (the Chiefs only had 8 sacks entering that game). The Packers have the 4th highest adjusted sack rate of 7.7% on FootballOutsiders. Against the stout run defense of the Packers, the Colts will have to throw a ton. With Luck probably having to throw the ball 50 times in this game to keep up, I like the chances of a lot of pressure and turnovers for the Packers defense.
Thanks again and follow me on Twitter @Keagan28 – also check out Kevin’s picks below!