What’s going on people. Alex here, and below are my DraftKings Sleeper Picks for the Week 9 Sunday main slate. If you looking for cash game plays, be sure to read my first article for Week 8, via this link. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
RB: James Conner: (7,200)
I don’t care if this matchup vs The Ravens is extremely tough (5th in rush DVOA), Conner simply can’t be ignored right now. The Steelers have put him back in their full workhorse role the last three weeks (25.6 TPG) and it has resulted in some massive fantasy numbers. In order, he has scored 37.5 DK points vs The Falcons, 31.9 DK points vs The Bengals, and 41.2 DK points vs The Browns. He has touched the ball nearly 50% of the time he is on the field and is generating an elite 1.44 DK points per touch. No matter the game script (BAL -3), Conner is a lock for 20+ touches.
The Ravens are 5th in rush DVOA, but they have been an average matchup in their last two games, giving up the 11th most FPPG to RBs since Week 7. A back has rushed for a TD in each of these games and before this, they only surrendered a single rushing TD in first six games. It’s obviously nothing earth shattering, but this Ravens’ run defense seems to be a weaker unit right now than their seasons rank may suggest. Nonetheless, this is the lowest we have seen Conner priced since Week 2 and this offense needs him if they want to keep winning. (three in a row) It wouldn’t shock me at all if we see another big day from Conner and he is projected to be much lower owned than the last few weeks. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
TE: David Njoku: (4,600)
Njoku was a complete no show last week, scoring zero DK points and not seeing a single target vs The Steelers. He was 10.8% owned in The Millionaire Maker, but after this, he should be under 5% in large GPPs this weekend. Seeing no targets is obviously concerning, but before this, Njoku was the #2 option, with a 19.3% target share in Baker Mayfield’s first five games as the starting QB. Plus, HC Hue Jackson and OC Todd Haley were both fired following this loss to The Steelers, so, you have to think that this new coaching staff will make it an effort to get Njoku the ball going forward, especially this week vs The Chiefs.
So far this season, this secondary has struggled with TEs, giving up the 7th most FPPG to the position (27th in DVOA vs TEs) and even though they have slightly improved as a group, they are still 27th in overall DVOA. The TE position is always an excellent opportunity to differentiate yourself and I thinking taking a chance on Njoku bouncing back, is a sneaky move in GPPs for Week 9.
WR: Desean Jackson: (5,000)
The splits Jackson has seen with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB over Jameis Winston have been rather dramatic this season. In the four contests Fitzpatrick started, Jackson scored 21.6 DK PPG vs the 13.3 DK PPG he is averaging in these past three with Winston starting the game. He is only playing about half of the snaps, but the upside will always be there for a deep threat like Djax.
All he needs is to haul in one long pass for a TD and his job is complete. Fitzpatrick has been the 4th most accurate passer on attempts over 20 yards this season and he should be airing it out quite a bit this week vs The Panthers. (CAR -6 and they are 20th in pass DVOA) Jackson has a very high ceiling in this spot and I will be pairing him with Fitzpatrick or bringing him back on the other end of a Panther’s stack.
QB: Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Alex Smith. (The Falcons have allowed the most FPPG to QBs and Smith is at home, at a price of only $5,000. The Redskins have a healthy implied team total of 25 points and this game has decent shootout potential, that could lead to 40+ throws for Smith)
RB: Adrian Peterson (The Falcons are 31st in rush DVOA and are allowing 8.8 CPG to RBs. Peterson has seen 20+ carries in back to back weeks and has caught a ball in each game), Kerryon Johnson (19 DK PPG in these last two with Theo Riddick out. If Riddick was out again, he would stay in a large role and be active in the pass game, with The Lions as 4.5 point road underdogs vs The Vikings), and Nick Chubb (The Chiefs are dead last in rush DVOA and there is a chance his role in the passing game could be expanded with Jackson and Hadley not making the calls for this offense).
WR: Antonio Brown, Deandre Hopkins (if Keke Coutee can’t suit up, Hopkins may get some huge volume with Will Fuller done for the season and newly acquired Demaryius Thomas just joining the team this week. The Broncos are a tough spot, but Nuke is close to matchup proof and we have seen WRs burn this secondary on a few occasions), Robert Woods (having Cooper Kupp back should improve Woods’ numbers. We all thought the slot role would be perfect for Woods, but he averaged 4.8 more DK PPG with a healthy Kupp by his side. This game has a huge total of 60 points and The Saints are 29th in pass DVOA. Lastly, with everyone banking on Woods the past two weekends, recency bias should naturally keep his ownership a little low in GPPs), John Brown (23.9 DK points vs The Steelers in Week 4), and Tre’Quan Smith.
TE: Austin Hooper and Chris Herndon. (has found the endzone in three straight games and this Dolphins’ defense is 16th in DVOA vs TEs and has allowed five TDs to the position. In an extremely ugly slate for TEs, taking a cheap gamble on Herndon scoring again doesn’t seem like a bad idea)
D: Ravens, Jets, and Bills. (Buffalo may be a disaster of a team, but their defense is legitimate, ranking 5th in overall DVOA. They are at home, which is always a plus for a defense, going against a turnover prone Mitch Trubisky. This game has the lowest O/U game total by a large 6.5 points and over the last three years, home defenses are averaging 9.5 DK PPG when the game total is under 38 points)