What’s up everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Week 9. These are some of my favorite cheap plays for the main slate that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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QB: Jacoby Brissett: (5,200) Brissett has been far from perfect as The Colts starter, but this week, he is in a really intriguing spot to produce vs The Texans. This defense ranks decently in pass DVOA (14th), but this stat is a rather misleading for how bad they have been at defending the pass as of late. If we exclude Browns’ QB Kevin Hogan’s horrible first career start vs this team back in Week 6, this defense has really struggled defending passing attacks recently. Last week they got absolute torn apart by Russell Wilson for four TDs, one pick, and 452 yards (39.08 DK points) and Alex Smith also torched them back in Week 5, for three TDs, no picks, and 324 yards. (29.86 DK points) Brissett isn’t on the same level as of either of these QBs, but he is far more talented than the only QB they have stopped over their last three weeks in Hogan.
He also has had some solid games when facing weaker defenses, with a 27.26 DK point showing vs The Browns in Week 2, and a 21.96 DK point game vs The Niners in Week 4. Not only does this match-up look great, currently sitting at a 3.6 opponent +/- (second best of the main slate), but the game flow is also very much in his favor, with The Colts being seven point underdogs. He is averaging 37 attempts over the last four weeks, and he should approach 40 throws again in this game. I think he has a really strong chance to return three times value at his current price tag, with 20-25 DK point upside. Everyone is very fond of both WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle this week at their low salaries, but nobody seems to be showing love to Brissett, who is also very cheap. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) I love stacking him with one of these pass catchers, or maybe even both, in GPPs this weekend.
WR: Mohamed Sanu: (5,300) Since his return from a hamstring injury, Sanu has seen a total of 17 targets over these last two weeks, which is a high 28.3% market share. He has been productive with these targets, averaging 15.9 DK points in these past two games. He should see similar volume again this week vs The Panthers. They have been stout against WRs this season, allowing 7th fewest DK points to the position, but with Panthers top corner James Bradberry expected to shadow Julio Jones for a good chunk of this game, Sanu should continue to see 7-10 looks out of the slot.
So far this year, Sanu has ran 63% of his snaps from the slot, and in this game, he should mostly be matched up with Panthers CB Captain Munnerlyn, who is their primary slot CB (99% of coverage is from the slot), and has a low PFF grade of 47.1. If you don’t count the game he got hurt in and left early in Week 4, Sanu has put up double digit DK points in every full game he has played this season. With his expected volume, he should continue this streak, and has nice upside if he can score for the second consecutive week. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
TE: Vernon Davis: (4,100) Davis’s matchup is average vs this Seahawk defense (13th most DK points to TEs), but he could be potentially in line for a ton of targets with this Redskin offense beat up. First off, Davis is expected to draw the start for TE Jordan Reed who is all but been ruled out for this game with a hamstring injury. Davis has always filled in nicely for the very injury prone Reed, and in the one full game Reed missed this year, Davis was extremely efficient catching all five of his targets for 58 yards and a TD vs The Raiders. (16.8 DK points) On top of Reed being out, The Redskins are expected to be without back up TE Niles Paul (head), and may also be without slot receiver Jamison Crowder, who has missed back to back practices with a hamstring injury.
If Crowder is out (caught nine targets after Reed left the game last week), Davis could possibly see double digit targets in this tlit vs The Seahawks. Another thing to note is that Seahawks FS Earl Thomas, who is a key part of their secondary, is also currently dealing with a hamstring injury and is officially questionable for Sunday. All in All, just with Reed and Paul both out of the picture, Davis is looking like he will play almost all the offensive snaps. Even at age 34, Davis still looks very fresh and I think he has a solid floor in this situation, with a high ceiling if Crowder misses this contest. His $4,100 tag is very reasonable and he is an excellent GPP target that could be pushed into cash game status depending on what happens with Crowder and Thomas.
QB: Tom Savage (best matchup on the board for a QB, 4.0 opponent +/-), Brock Osweiler, and Jared Goff.
RB: Joe Mixon (good spot vs this Jag reverse funnel defense, that ranks 1st in pass DVOA but dead last in rush DVOA), Chris Thompson (would also benefit if Crowder is out), Carlos Hyde, Buck Allen, and Marlon Mack.
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Sterling Shepard, Paul Richardson, Corey Davis, Marquise Goodwin/Aldrick Robinson (Pierre Garcon is on IR with a neck injury. This is tough but whatever WR seems unlikely to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson is the WR to target), Dede Westbrook (if Marquise Lee is out), and Curtis Samuel (with Kelvin Benjamin traded to Buffalo, Samuel will see more snaps. I think fellow Panthers WR Russell Sheppard stays in the slot, moving Samuel outside, giving him the better matchup vs Falcons CB Robert Alford, who has the lowest PFF grade of this secondary at 49.4)
TE: Jason Witten, Cameron Brate, Tyler Higbee (Giants allow 18.2 DK points to TEs, including a league high seven TDs), and Brent Celek/Trey Burton (whoever starts if Ertz is out. This is a great matchup for TEs, with The Broncos giving up 17.6 DK points to TEs, sitting at the best opponent +/- of the main slate at 4.0 points)
D: Jags, Rams, Saints, and Colts.