What’s up everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Wild Card Weekend. These are some of my favorite cheap plays that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.
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QB: Tyrod Taylor: (4,700) First off, this Wild Card Weekend slate is extremely difficult. The one thing that is clear to me is that we should be building our GPP lineups around the top five RBs. Rams RB Todd Gurley is the clear #1 option and to fit him in with one or two other high end backs, we are going have to take some risks at the other positions. Taylor, has the ugliest matchup of the slate for a QB, but he is priced as back up at only $4,700, which is the cheapest price for a QB by $800 this weekend. The Jags are the top overall team in pass DVOA and allowed the least DK points to QBs this season, but they showed some holes in their last two games of the regular season. In these final two games they allowed the 5th most DK points to QBs, allowing an average of over 20 fantasy points a game. You could say that these games didn’t matter much to The Jags, but this wasn’t the case, as they played all of their starters fully in these two games, with the intent to win. Without question they are still a very strong defense that will be hyped on their home field for this playoff game, but The Bills are also very pumped about this game after being entered into the playoffs in very dramatic fashion, with them beating The Dolphins at home, and a late game winning TD for The Bengals that locked The Bills in as a Wild Card over The Ravens.
At a price of only $4,700, which is the cheapest Taylor has ever been on DraftKings throughout his whole career as a starter, we are only aiming for close to 15 DK points from him in this game, which is certainly a possibility with him averaging 15.2 DK points per game this season. Currently this Jags defense rates as an opponent +/- of -0.2 points for opposing QBs, which is the second best matchup for a QB in this slate based on opponent +/-. He lacks huge upside and the floor is low in this road matchup, but the salary cap relief he presents with a low expected ownership (2-4% via Fantasy Labs) is just too enticing for me to ignore. His WRs are obviously in extremely tough spots going against Jaylen Rasmey and company, and if I was going to stack him with someone, it would be his safety net, Charles Clay, who should see 5+ targets in this decent matchup for TEs. (JAX 20th in DVOA vs TEs)
WR: Rishard Matthews: (4,900) Matthews returned from a hamstring injury for the final four weeks of the season, but saw three really tough matchups in this span, taking on The Cardinals, The Rams, and The Jags. He still leads this offense in snaps (85%) and saw 18 targets during these games and in the one positive matchup he faced, The Niners, he was great, catching six of his eight targets for 95 yards and a TD. (21.5 DK points) This week he will see another strong matchup, going against The Chiefs who allowed the 2nd most DK points to WRs this season and rank 31st in DVOA vs #1 WRs. They improved towards the end of the year, but they still gave up the 6th most fantasy points to WRs between weeks 13-16. I am not including Week 17 because they sat or limited most of their key players in this meaningless game.
Additionally, with this being a nice matchup for him, the game flow should be in his favor, with The Titans 8.5 point underdogs vs The Chiefs. There’s no doubt The Titans are going to have to throw it a ton in this game and in the four games this season that Matthews played in when The Titans were underdogs, he averaged 15 DK points a game, rating as a 4.19 DK point +/-. The back to back down games to close the year made DraftKings drop his price to $4,900, which is a friendly price tag for a #1 WR in an offense that should be playing from behind. As I said above, I will be paying up at RB over WR, and I think Matthews is a very strong cheap target that should exceed expectations in this situation. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
TE: Austin Hooper: (2,900) As always, TE is the ugliest position this weekend. Outside of top TE Travis Kelce, there are a few decent mid tier targets, but they could easily underachieve in their tougher matchups, which is why I am targeting Hooper at his cheap $2,900 salary, which is the first time he has been priced under $3,000 since last season. He has the best matchup for a TE in this slate, taking on The Rams who gave up the most fantasy points to TEs in their final three games before week 17, when they rested most of their main players, similar to The Chiefs, in a game that didn’t affect their playoff seeding.
The Falcons are 6.5 point road underdogs and QB Matt Ryan should have to throw it over 40 times in this game. Hooper should see close to five targets and has a decent shot of scoring vs this Rams defense that gave up four total TE TDs in their last four games of the year. He’s not going to explode, but if Hooper gets us double digit DK points, we will be sitting in gold at his soft price tag.
QB: Matt Ryan, Blake Bortles, and Marcus Mariota.
RB: Mark Ingram (should be lower owned than Kamara), Tevin Coleman (cheapest he has been all year), Devonta Freeman, and Christian McCaffrey.
WR: Eric Decker, Ted Ginn, Robert Woods, Marquise Lee (if active), Deonte Thompson (is questionable), Kelvin Benajmin (nice bump if Thompson is out, but he is also banged up himself), Brenton Bersin, and Cooper Kupp.
TE: Charles Clay and Greg Olsen.
D: Rams, Bills, and Saints.