QB: Kirk Cousins: (5,500)
Cousins shined in Sunday night’s win over The Packers, throwing for 342 yards, three TDs, and no picks. (30.38 DK points) He threw it 38 times in this game and in the nine total games Cousins has attempted 35 passes or more as Viking, he is providing 24 DK PPG. He projects for at least 35 attempts this Sunday, as a five point road underdog, vs this Patriots, who are letting opponents run the 6th most plays per game this season. Plus, this game has the 4th highest O/U game total of the main slate (49.5 points) and it has moved up one full point since the opening lines.
In the first three games of the season, that The Vikings were underdogs and the total was 45 points or more, Cousins scored 26.2 DK PPG. The Pats rank 19th in pass DVOA and I think Cousins is sure bet for at least 20 DK points, at only $5,500, which is tied for his second lowest price of the season. QB is flooded with options this week and with four main names garnering all the attention (Mahomes, Newton, Winston, Jackson), Cousins should come with a single digit ownership in GPPs. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
TE: Matt LaCosse: (2,500)
Rightfully so, I love Eric Erbon this week, but he is going to be very chalky. (31-40% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) So, by default, I think making an effort to pivot off him in some GPP lineups is a must. You can pay up for Travis Kelce, which is certainly viable, but I think going all the way down to LaCosse is the better the route. After Jeff Heuerman (ribs) went down last week, LaCosse brought in 3/4 targets for 34 yards and TD vs The Steelers. (12.4 DK points) He only played 50% of the snaps, but he should log closer to 75% this Sunday vs The Bengals.
This matchup has been great for all positions recently (28th in DVOA) and in their last two games, they have let TEs catch 100% of their targets for 124 yards and two TDs. LaCosse is scoring 2.11 DK points per target and he should see 5+, with The Broncos having a healthy implied team total of 24.75 points, and not completely out of the wild card race. If he finds the end zone, which is certainly possible, LaCosse will be a smash value, that will help you load up with all the high end skill players you want.
WR: Chris Conley: (3,800)
On top of Kareem Hunt being released, The Chiefs will also be without Sammy Watkins (foot), for the second straight game. Two Monday nights ago, in the shootout of the year vs The Rams, Conley caught 7/8 targets, for 74 yards, and two TDs. (26.4 DK points) The yards, catches, targets, and TDs, were all season highs for Conley. He played 90% of the snaps and should see a similar amount this Sunday vs The Raiders. This secondary has been a mess all season long (30th in pass DVOA) and over their last four games, they have surrendered a tied for league high seven TDs to WRs.
Conley should see more than a handful of targets in this game and with The Chiefs still presenting the highest implied team total of the main slate (35.25 points), he has a decent chance of scoring another TD or two. Out of all The Chiefs’ offensive players, Conley will by far come with the lowest ownership (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), making him one of my preferred GPP darts of Week 13.
QB: Andrew Luck (he is averaging 27.1 DK PPG in his last eight and The Jags have been awful, allowing the 3rd most FPPG to QBs since Week 9), Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan.
RB: Nick Chubb, Nyheim Hines (if Marlon Mack sits. He scored 17.9 DK PPG across the three Mack sat earlier this season), and T.J. Yeldon. (Kareem Hunt being released has made Spencer Ware an obvious core value for this slate. Before the news, the place to find RB value, was The Jags, with Leonard Fournette suspended. Now, nobody is going to be on Carlos Hyde/Yeldon, and I think targeting Yeldon in his pass catching role is a sneaky move for GPPs. He should be extremely active as a receiver playing from behind vs The Colts, who have allowed the second most total catches to RBs, and rank 30th in DVOA vs passes to RBs this season)
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. (surprisingly, in their last four games, The Bears have given up the 4th most catches to WRs. Also, last week, OBJ complained to the media about how he believed The Giants should have attacked The Eagles through the air more in the Week 12 loss to the division rival. Who knows, but maybe this Giants’ coaching staff will now make a better effort to get OBJ the ball this weekend vs The Bears), Julio Jones (The Ravens actually rank 13th in DVOA vs #1 WRs and this is the cheapest Jones has been since Week 1. He has topped 20 DK points in six straight and The Falcons have a decent implied team total of 25 points), Emmanuel Sanders, T.Y. Hilton (better if Jaylen Ramsey is out. He is listed as questionable with a knee injury), and Bruce Ellington (if he plays, Ellington is a solid WR punt. He caught 6/7 targets last week for 28 yards in a tough spot vs The Bears and The Rams have allowed the most FPPG to WRs since Week 8), and Adam Humphries (the logical pivot play off Chris Godwin. Humphries has scored in back to back games and is scoring 16.2 DK PPG during this time)
TE: Rob Gronkowski. (in his return, Gronk caught 3/7 targets for 56 yards and a TD vs The Jets. He is now back at home, playing vs The Vikings, who are 27th in DVOA against TEs. This game also has shootout potential, with it’s 49.5 O/U game total)
D: Broncos, Colts, and Giants.