Hey everybody. I’m back again for Week 15 of the NFL season and I hope everyone had a profitable Week 14. Looking back at my picks from Week 14, it was a solid week for me. My quarterbacks were slightly disappointing, but it was a down quarterback week in general. I nailed two running backs and two wide receivers with the two misses being Forte and Allen Robinson. Jeremy Hill, Lamar Miller, Emmanuel Sanders and Jordy Nelson were all great plays this week. My tight ends were a hit and miss with Fiedorowicz being disappointing, but Ertz had a big game with 24 DK points. At defense, both were okay and wouldn’t bury you with Arizona getting 7 DK points and Detroit getting 5, but if you weren’t on Atlanta you were in trouble anyway.
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If you’re still waiting on that big score, I’m here to help throw some ideas at ya. Here are the guys I have my eye on in Week 15.
WAS – Kirk Cousins ($6800) – Cousins is playing on Monday night against the Panthers. He’s my favorite expensive quarterback this week of anyone not named Matt Ryan. Cousins should shred this Carolina secondary that ranks 28th in DK points to quarterbacks and have given up the 5th most plays of 40+ yards through the air, which certainly bodes well for pairing him with DeSean Jackson.
*Cash* BUF – Tyrod Taylor ($5700) – Tyrod seems like he might be playing for his job at this point with rumors about his job security and there’s no better remedy for that than playing the Cleveland Browns. He’s at home facing a team that gives up the 2nd most DK points to quarterbacks, the most touchdowns to quarterbacks and an absurd 104.2 quarterback rating, which is easily the worst in the league.
*Tournament* SD Philip Rivers ($6200) – Rivers is at home against Oakland this week. The last time he faced the Raiders he threw for 4 touchdowns and scored 31.4 DK points. The Raiders defense is playing better, but they still have allowed the most pass plays of over 20 and 40 yards this season. This just feels like one of those games where nobody will be looking to Rivers when he’s in a solid spot with high shootout potential.
A lot of people will be on Kenneth Farrow here as it looks like Gordon is out. At just $4400 he should easily pay off his salary and then some.
ATL – Tevin Coleman ($5000) – Coleman is at home this week facing the 49ers, who have easily become the worst rush defense in the league. They have given up the most yards per carry, touchdowns, DK points to running backs and runs of 20 and 40 yards. Coleman is a threat to score multiple touchdowns as he’s a great pass catcher out of the backfield.
ATL – Devonta Freeman ($6700) – All the same reasons as Tevin Coleman. Freeman should see a lot of the early down work at least in the first half, with Coleman stepping into the 3rd down role. Rostering both Coleman and Freeman proved extremely profitable when they played the Saints earlier in the season as they finished as #1 and #2 running backs that week. Doing it again this week makes some sense as well.
*Tournament* MIN Jerick McKinnon ($4000) – McKinnon has been extremely disappointing this season, but he’s quietly been over 10 DK points the last three weeks, seeing over 6 targets in his last two games. At just $4000, I can easily see him 3X his salary this week going against the Colts at home who rank 30th in rush defense DVOA on FootballOutsiders.
PHI – Jordan Matthews ($5400) – I think Matthews is underpriced this week at just $5400. He regularly sees over 10 targets when healthy. He’s going against the Ravens who have a solid defense, but this is a pure value play for me. The Ravens rank 25th in opposing points to wide receivers and have given up the 5th most passing touchdowns in the league so the opportunity is certainly there.
*Tournament* MIN – Stefon Diggs ($6200) – At home this week against the Colts, Diggs should get up to his usual double digit targets. He’s been quiet over the last few weeks with a nagging injury, but it looks like he’s fully healthy for the first time in a while. The Colts rank 26th in pass defense DVOA and have given up the 7th most plays of over 20 yards. Diggs should be a lower owned option this week with 20+ point potential.
WAS – Jamison Crowder ($5400) – I’m fine with Crowder or Jackson here, but a lot of people will probably jump ship on Crowder after his disappointing performance last week. He’s going against the Panthers who have given up the fifth most plays of over 40 yards and the fifth most touchdown passes on the year. Last week was his first game under 12 DK points in over 10 weeks. Chalk that one up to randomness and watch Crowder get back to his normal production this week.
*Tournament* ARI – Jermaine Gresham ($2500) – People don’t seem to realize how good Gresham has been over the last month or so. He’s averaging 6 targets a game in his last 6 games and now he faces a New Orleans defense that ranks 25th in DVOA against opposing tight ends. His last 4 games he’s scored 11, 14, 10 and 9 DK points, which is certainly worth it given his minimum price. If you’re looking for a punt play at tight end, look no further.
SD – Antonio Gates ($4100) – Gates is 2 touchdown catches from tying Tony Gonzalez for the most all time by a tight end and if you think that he and Philip Rivers aren’t aware of that than your nuts. Rivers is going to put an emphasis on his long time friend when they’re in the red zone because they only have a few weeks left to do it if Gates doesn’t want to return next season. He saw 9 targets last week and I’d expect him to do the same at home versus the Raiders in the third highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
Baltimore Ravens ($3100) – The Ravens will make the short trip to Philadelphia to face the Eagles. The Ravens have scored 11, 15 and 6 in their last three games and are the 4th highest scoring DK defense this season at 9.2 per game. Carson Wentz has been okay, but he’s definitely prone to rookie mistakes and the potential for a pick 6 is there.
Green Bay Packers ($3200) – The Packers are quietly getting after the quarterback a ton the last few games. They’ve had at least two sacks in their last seven games, including 3 last week with 5 interceptions on Russell Wilson. They’ve scored 10, 8 and 19 DK points the last three weeks. This week they face a Chicago team with Matt Barkley, who hasn’t looked as awful as everyone thought he would. The Packers should get pressure, which should lead to turnovers.
Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28