DraftKings Week 16 NFL Picks

Hey everybody. I’m back again for Week 16 of the NFL season and I hope everyone had a profitable Week 15. Pretty remarkable we only have a few weeks left. Looking back at my picks from Week 15, it was a disappointing week for me, but that happens sometimes I guess. My three quarterback picks of Cousins, Tyrod and Rivers wouldn’t have buried your teams, but they didn’t go off with all of them being around 16 DK points.

I was much better at running back as I wrote up both Falcons running backs with Freeman being the one who went off. Coleman carried the ball 14 times, but Freeman was the one who found the endzone all three times. Freeman had his best game of the season with 37.5 DK points. My tournament mention was Jerick McKinnon and although I didn’t expect the Colts to blow them out, it probably helped him as he caught 9 balls and had 16.1 DK points, pretty good for a guy who was only $4000.

This was my worst week at receiver. Jordan Matthews saw 11 targets , but only managed 6 catches for a measly 27 yards. Diggs and Crowder both were in games where they were down and should’ve been throwing, but only saw 5 targets a piece. Crowder now has back to bad duds for the first time this season.

A few more struggles at tight end with Gresham having his worst game in 7 weeks and Gates only seeing 2 targets, which was really odd. Green Bay was my better pick on defense as they picked of Barkley 3 times and scored 9 DK points. The Ravens struggled at home vs the Eagles and only managed 3 DK points.

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Promise to do better this week. Good luck to everyone this week as there are some serious GPP’s with loads up for grabs. Here are the guys I have my eye on in Week 16.

Quarterbacks

OAK Derek Carr ($6800) – Carr will be at home vs the Indianapolis Colts in a game that has the highest over/under on the slate at 53 points. The Raiders have the second highest implied team total at 28.25 so this definitely has the potential to be a shootout. The Colts have the 27th ranked pass defense DVOA and rank in the bottom 5-10 in most pass defense statistics. Comparing the Raiders pass offense vs the Colts pass defense, this is the 2nd biggest difference on the main slate between a team’s pass offense vs their opponent’s pass defense DVOA on FootballOutsiders (Raiders rank 4th on pass offense, Colts defense is 27th in pass defense).

NO Drew Brees ($7400) – Drew playing at home? Yes, please. This dude continually lights it up in the Superdome, which is why they have the 3rd highest team total at 27.5 and the second highest over/under at 52 points. The Buccaneers have actually been a decent pass defense this season, but they have given up the 5th most pass plays of over 20 yards and the 2nd most plays of over 40 yards, which should lead to big plays for Cooks and the boys.

*Tournament* Blake Bortles ($5000) – I can’t believe I even typed the name Blake Bortles. This could go horribly wrong, but there are some reasons to buy him this week. For one he’s min priced at just $5000, which will allow you a completely different roster construction given most people will gravitate to an expensive quarterback this week. Second, he’s in a great matchup at home versus the Titans who rank 24th in pass defense DVOA and it looks like their best corner Jason McCourty won’t suit up for this game. I’ve lost plenty of money this year investing in Bortles and Allen Robinson, but this is their first good matchup in weeks. The last time they faced each other in Tennessee, Bortles threw for 337 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, which was good for 32.7 DK points. Low owned tournament play only. Play at your own risk. I am not responsible for lost money.

Running Backs

BUF – LeSean McCoy ($9000) – LeSean McCoy is going to be chalk this week, but I’ll be overweight compared to the field. He’s in a prime matchup being a home favorite versus the Dolphins who rank 22nd in rush defense DVOA. McCoy has been a monster recently as he’s averaged nearly 30 DK points in his last four games. The Dolphins are one of the worst teams defending the run as they give up the second most yards per carry and runs of over 20 yards and the third most yards per game.

SF – Carlos Hyde ($5800) – Carlos Hyde makes the short trip to Los Angeles this week to face the Rams. Hyde has been solid the past month running for at least 4.5 ypc in his last 5 games. This is a game I expect the 49ers to be in and when that happens, they pound the rock considering they’re the 3rd ranked rush offense DVOA. Hyde should see at least 16 carries in this one and he’s flashed the upside that can win you a GPP with four games over 23 DK points including 30 two weeks ago in what was supposed to be a solid Jets run defense.

*Tournament* Frank Gore ($4800) – I rarely roster Frank Gore, let me say that first and foremost. This week might be different as he’s facing the Oakland Raiders who have the 21st ranked rush defense DVOA. They also give up the 4th most ypc at 4.6. The Raiders are going to be able to get after Andrew Luck with his not so good offensive line. In order to slow down Khalil Mack and the boys I expect Gore to be a feature part of the offense in a game that’s expected to have plenty of fantasy goodness.

Wide Receivers

CAR – Tedd Ginn ($4500) – Tedd Ginn is surprisingly becoming more of a reliable receiver week to week. He’s had at least 6 targets in 7 of his last 9 games with a touchdown in 4 of his last 5. The Falcons have given up the third most pass yards per game and the second most touchdown passes. This game has the third highest o/u at 51.5 so there should be plenty of scoring. Love me some Ginn in GPP’s.

*Tournament* CHI – Cameron Meredith ($4700) – Meredith has scored 19.2 and 20.4 in his last two games with 8 and 13 targets in each. It seems that Barkley is actually a pretty decent quarterback as PFF has ranked him 3rd behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers over the last 4 weeks. Norman should be seeing plenty of Alshon Jeffery leaving Meredith to the much easier matchup. The only thing that concerns me at this point is ownership. The more research I do the more Meredith actually seems like he’s trending towards a higher ownership after seeing the players everyone is touting.

*Cash* Julian Edelman ($6900) – Edelman is my favorite receiver in cash this week. The Patriots have the highest implied team total at 30 points facing a terrible Jets defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA. Edelman has seen 13.4 targets over his last 5 games. If he can get in the endzone just one time he’s going to smash. He’s scored at least 13 DK points in his last 8 games. Cash game stud.

TIGHT END

*Cash* Cameron Brate ($3900) – Brate is going to garner some ownership this week as he’s facing the Saints in the Superdome. He has the second highest projection on FantasyLabs, but is priced as the 9th tight end. In his last 6 games, he’s been at or near 20 in 3 of them so the upside you want for a GPP is definitely there. This is the second highest o/u on the slate and touchdowns should be a plenty, especially when you look at how Mike Evans has struggled vs the Saints in his career.

SD – Antonio Gates ($4400) – Ride or die with Gates again. He’s going to get these touchdowns and I’m going to make sure I’m on it when it happens. He’s still two short of the all time record held by Tony Gonzalez. We have plenty of reason to believe he’s going to go off this week. For one, he’s going against the JV squad in the Cleveland Browns who give up the most points in the league to tight ends and rank dead last in covering the position in DVOA. Aka they’re bad against basically everyone, but they’re especially bad against tight ends.

Defenses/Special Teams

New England Patriots ($3600) – The Patriots are my favorite defense this week. They’re facing the Jets who have all but given up on the season. They’ll be going against Bryce Petty who has thrown 5 interceptions in his last 3 games. The Patriots have scored at least 8 DK points in their last 4, including 17 last week. Lock em in.

Green Bay Packers ($3300) – The Packers are a solid defense this week that you should definitely consider. They’ve scored 10, 8, 19 and 9 DK points the last 4 weeks. They’ve had 8 interceptions the last two weeks, but I’m more interested in how they should be able to get after Sam Bradford at Lambeau. It’s no secret the Vikings offensive line is arguable the worst in the league and the Packers should be all over him this week.

Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28