Its time for Week 5 and below are my DraftKings sleeper picks for the Sunday main slate. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
QB: Patrick Mahomes: (6,200)
Obviously, this is a very difficult spot vs The Jags (6th in pass DVOA), but the matchup creates a rare opportunity to get the top MVP candidate at a depressed price and ownership. As of Thursday night, Fantasy Labs is projecting Mahomes with a low GPP ownership of 2-4%. Not counting this past Monday, because the game wasn’t part of the main slate, but in his two previous contests, The Chiefs’ QB saw an average ownership of 15.4% in The Millionaire Maker. Also, because of the matchup, DraftKings has dropped his price $600 since last week. This makes Mahomes, the #1 fantasy QB this season (31.1 DK PPG), the 7th highest priced QB of this 12 game slate. In Week 4, the young QB shined in his biggest test yet, taking on The Broncos in Mile High Stadium. In the comeback effort, Mahomes completed 28/45 passes for 304 yards and a TD, while also chipping in with 3/7/1 rushing in the win. (25.86 DK points)
The Jags are a more stout defense, but this was still very encouraging to see him handle The Broncos’ defense on the road, and now, Mahomes will be back at Arrowhead, for only the second time this season. The Jags have surrendered the least fantasy points to QBs thus far, but the only legitimate QB they have faced is Tom Brady. (17.36 DK points) The others have been a washed up Eli Manning, a hurt Marcus Mariota, and a rookie who has come way down to earth after Week 1, in Sam Darnold. Furthermore, they have played three homes and only one road game.
I have respect for Jalen Rasmey and this defense, but I think their currents ranks are a little misleading, when you consider their soft schedule so far. Mahomes and the high powered Chiefs are without question the toughest challenge they have faced, and them being at home just brings their explosiveness up another level. Vegas certainly thinks The Chiefs will be just fine, giving them the 6th highest implied team total of the slate. (26 points) Good offense will always beat good defense and Mahomes should score 25+ DK points in this game. As I said, this is a rare chance to get him with a low ownership, and I think a Mahomes to Travis Kelce (below) stack is something you must have some shares of in Week 5.
TE: Travis Kelce: (6,000)
Kelce should be the player that helps Mahomes take down The Jags at home. They have one of the best CB duos in football, with Rasmey and A.J. Bouye, and this will naturally lead to Mahomes feeding Kelce down the middle. Last year, they ranked 20th in DVOA in defending TEs and it hasn’t been much different through the first four games of this season, with them at 17th in DVOA vs the position. HC Andy Reid knows that Tyreek Hill is going to be a smaller factor in this game due to Ramsey and I am sure he is game planning to make this a big Kelce day.
Even after a catch less first half vs The Ravens this past Monday, Mahomes still relied on Kelce in the second half, helping him to score a huge TD in the fourth quarter and 20.8 DK points overall. Following Week 1, Mahomes has thrown to Kelce at least ten times a game, which puts him at the 5th highest target share in The NFL over the past three weeks. In those games, Kelce is scoring an awesome 25.4 DK PPG. Another 20+ DK point outing is coming from him Sunday and with most people dropping down at TE, I think this Mahomes to Kelce combination could ended up being a stack that is potentially under 5% owned in GPPs. That is something that will never happen again this season.
WR: Jordy Nelson: (4,500)
Call him old, call him washed up, call him what you want, but Nelson has been excellent these past two weeks. He went off for 32.3 DK points vs a decent Dolphin secondary (8th in pass DVOA) and then scored 17.8 vs an even better Browns’ pass defense. (4th in pass DVOA) He brought in a TD and saw eight targets in each of these games, while averaging 20.1 YPC. This week, he finds himself in position to keep turning back the clocks, vs The Chargers, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to WRs. Casey Hayward is still their top CB, but he is expected to follow Amari Cooper, and TE Jared Cook is also in a ugly spot, with The Chargers ranking 1st in DVOA vs TEs. (13th least fantasy points to TEs)
This should all lead to Nelson being Derek Carr’s most targeted weapon. LA has let up eight WR TDs and with Nelson’s steady work in the redzone (three last two weeks), there’s a decent chance he finds the endzone for the third week in a row. Nelson’s salary went down $200 and I am predicting we see a sub ten percent ownership for him in large field tournaments.
QB: Kirk Cousins (Latavius Murray (hasmitring) is banged up and this horrid run game has led to The Vikings being the most pass heavy offense in all of football. (72%) Cousins has thrown over 50 attempts in his last two and this Eagles defense is allowing the 10th most fantasy points to QBs and ranks 3rd in pace. Cousins should smash this price tag and I like him all formats) and Blake Bortles. (KC is just putrid on D, ranking 32nd in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA. Also, The Jags should be playing behind (KC -3) and Bortles has been more productive with Leonard Fournette out of the lineup)
RB: Gio Bernard (if Mixon was out and Bernard is healthy enough to take on a full workload. He is averaging 22.5 DK PPG on 18 touches without Mixon and The Bengals have an implied team total of 27.25 points), Philip Lindsey (in his return after getting tossed in Week 3, Lindsey scored 15.9 DK points vs The Chiefs. Excluding that game he was ejected, he is averaging 16.4 DK PPG. This week, he plays The Jets, who are 2nd in pass DVOA, but 16th in rush DVOA), and Austin Ekeler. (The Chargers are tied for the second highest implied team total of the slate (29 points), he is averaging an elite 1.44 DK points per touch, and is going against The Raiders, who rank 27th in team DVOA)
WR: Golden Tate, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp (Rams have an implied team total of 29 points and both WRs should go slighty under the radar in this slate), John Brown, and Mohamed Sanu. (really cheap way to get more exposure to The Falcons vs Steelers, that will be under owned, compared to the rest of the skill players in this shootout)
TE: Austin Hooper (simply in play due to this extremely high total. This Falcons Steelers game opened at 56.5 (the highest total we have seen since January 2017) and has already moved up a 1.5 more points) and Jeff Heuerman. (logged 88% of the snaps as the starter on MNF, catching 4/7 targets for 57 yards vs The Chiefs. (9.7 DK points) If you want to load up elsewhere, I don’t mind going all the way down to a TE who is only $2,600 and playing essentially every snap)
D: Bengals, Jets, and Bills.