Hey everybody I hope you guys had a profitable Week 17 as it was definitely a hectic one, but rejoice because the season isn’t over yet! Us degenerates still have a few weeks left to play and I’m here to help. Looking back at my picks from Week 17, it was an up and down week for me. I nailed Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Julian Edelman, Cardinals and Vikings defenses. My bad picks ended up being Kirk Cousins, Thomas Fitzgerald Touissant and Travis Kelce. This week there are only 4 games on the slate so I’m going to give out my favorite play (that’s not insanely obvious) at each position and two others that I like as well. In cash games, most people are going to build around either Ben Roethlisberger or Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and LeVeon Bell and Zach Zenner at running back so keep that in mind. I think it comes down to who you roster at the receiver position to set yourself apart.
If you want help with NFL research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com
Want to win more money at DraftKings? Click here for our FREE lineup generator tool
Here are the my favorite (non-obvious) plays of the week:
NYG Eli Manning ($6100) – Most of the ownership is going to be soaked up by Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger this week for obvious reasons. If you’re looking to pivot, I would go with Eli Manning. He’s $1500 and $1800 less than those two, which is huge this week because the pricing is so tight. Russell Wilson is right there, but I think I’m leaning toward Eli just because I think this game has more of a potential to shootout. The Packers secondary is getting shredded right now as they’ve allowed Bradford, Barkley and Stafford to throw no less than 347 yards and 2 touchdowns. This sure feels like another Giants team that’s ready to make a push for the Super Bowl.
Other quarterbacks I’ll have exposure to: Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.
HOU Lamar Miller ($6100) – LeVeon Bell is the obvious play here and it’ll be hard for me to fade him whatsoever. The only problem is his price as it’s hard to fit him, a top quarterback and receiver and get away with it. If I do move off of him, I’ll be moving to Lamar Miller who finally appears to be 100% healthy after resting the final two weeks of the season. He was not on the final injury report and the Texans should be leaning heavily on him as they go back to PFF’s worst quarterback of 2016 Brock Osweiler. The Texans are a home favorite this week and I’d expect Lamar to receive at least 18 carries to wear down the clock against a team that ranks 23rd in DK points to running backs. The Raiders have given up the 6th most yards per carry at 4.5 including last week where Forsett and Booker both had over 4 yards a carry.
Other running backs I’ll have exposure to: LeVeon Bell, Jay Ajayi and Ty Montgomery. I think I might be fading Zach Zenner completely in tournaments. He’ll be in my cash lineup, but his ownership is going to be absurd and in a matchup on the road as an underdog against the Seahawks, I could see him failing.
MIA Kenny Stills ($3800) – It’s hard finding value this week, but I think Stills is a solid GPP play this week at just $3800. A lot of people will be turning to Jermaine Kearse, Eli Rogers and Paul Richardson in this price range, but I prefer the speedster Stills who can catch a 50 yard touchdown at any time. He’s scored a touchdown in his last 4 games and 5 in his last 6, which is pretty impressive for a sub $4k guy. In a game where there should be plenty of offense, the Dolphins should be throwing a lot to keep up with the killer B’s.
Other receivers I’ll be exposure to: everyone who’s not in the Oakland/Houston game.
HOU C.J. Fiedorowicz ($4200) – We all know how awful of a quarterback Osweiler has been this season, but the one thing he can do is check down to his tight end. Fiedorowicz has seen at least 7 targets in his last 6 games and he’s facing a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in DK points to tight ends and has the 25th rated pass defense DVOA against the position on FootballOutsiders.
Other tight ends I like include: Ladarius Green, Jimmy Graham and Jared Cook.
Houston Texans ($3800) – Going with an onslaught of Texans in this piece feels completely wrong, but it’s happening. The Texans are the most expensive defense this week and it’s going to be really hard for me to roster anyone else. I could move to the other defense in this game as it does have the lowest over/under on the slate with two woeful quarterbacks who are capable of turning this game into an unwatchable mess, but I do see the Texans giving a huge workload to Lamar Miller all day long. The Texans will be facing a 4th round rookie making his first start on the road in Houston. The Texans have 8, 7, 9 and 7 DK points in their last 4 games so they’re playing much better recently and they are completely healthy at every level.
It’s going to be a very strange week with just 4 games and the obvious plays going highly owned. It’ll be very interesting to see how people go about fitting the killer B’s in their lineups as it really does put a huge strain on the rest of your lineup. Good luck this week guys!
Thanks again and follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28