For the purposes of this Super Bowl picks article, we will take a look at player props for the Patriots. There is always the traditional spread and total to bet on, but there is money to be made elsewhere as well. This is where I’ve typically made the most of cash in the Super Bowl, so we’ll see if we can keep the train motoring in Super Bowl LII. As always, though, make sure to bet within your means and bankroll. Depending on which sportsbook you use, the odds can differ a bit so be sure to pay attention. Let’s get straight to our free Patriots prop picks below.
New England Patriots Super Bowl Player Props Picks
Betting odds provided by bovada.lv
#1 – Total pass receptions – Danny Amendola (4.5)
With Julian Edelman laying on the turf of Ford Field in Week 3 of the preseason, attention immediately turned to Danny Amendola. His role was going to have to be bigger, as Tom Brady turned to Amendola as a primary wide receiver. The Pats will use tight ends, running backs, and receivers in multiple formations for the passing game. Josh McDaniels has used Amendola all over the field. In short routes, medium routes, deep routes he is getting targets.
Amendola went off against the Jaguars, hauling in 7 balls for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also completed a pass for 20 yards. In the Divisional Round against the Titans, Amendola caught 11 receptions for 112 yards. It’s hard to bet against that kind of production. He’s in a groove, and I wouldn’t advise fading Amendola right now. Look for the Patriots to move him all over the field and make it difficult on the Eagles to pinpoint his next route. Screen passes to Amendola are easy receptions, too. I see 6 receptions for him, so a play on the OVER looks solid.
#2 – Total rushing yards – Tom Brady (1.5)
All Tom Brady needs is a couple of yards on the ground to cash this bet. He doesn’t like to scramble much at all, but it isn’t unheard of to watch him take off for 2 or 3 yards. This is the Super Bowl, so guys are going to leave it all on the field, and you can guarantee Brady will. We don’t necessarily need Brady to take off to win this bet, though. He is the master of the QB sneak and his success rate is through the roof converting in short yardage. I expect him to get one or two chances to sneak the ball. He should be able to finish with 2 or 3 yards rushing.
#3 – Longest reception – Brandin Cooks (28.5)
Brandin Cooks is another one of Brady’s favorite targets. Acquired this past offseason, Cooks has fit in well in the Patriots’ offense. He is the primary deep target for the Patriots. Brady loves to target him off the play-action. Put the defense asleep with short underneath routes and look to Cooks downfield. He led the Patriots in receiving with 100 yards against the Jaguars. His longest reception was 31 yards.
Cooks hauled in a pass for more than 28 yards eleven times this year. In four of the last six weeks, he had 38, 43, 37, and 31 yards. The opportunities are going to be there all game long for this to hit. We don’t even need a deep ball for this one to hit. An intermediate route across the middle of the field and Cooks generates some YAC will do the trick.
#4 – Will Dion Lewis score a TD?
James White stole the spotlight in the Super Bowl last year against the Falcons. White rushed for 29 yards and 2 touchdowns, with one of those touchdowns the game winner in overtime. He made his bread in the passing game, hauling in 110 yards and a receiving touchdown. Lewis didn’t see as much action, as he was fighting back from injury.
In 2017, Lewis was the primary back for the Patriots. He rushed for 896 yards and 214 yards receiving. In total he scored 9 touchdowns. Lewis scored a touchdown in the final three games of the regular season. These props can be a bit of a hunch, but with these odds, I think it’s worth a look on Dion Lewis to score a touchdown.
#5 – Total receptions – Chris Hogan (2.5)
Chris Hogan is one of those guys that I’ve always seen as a wildcard. He’s a guy defenses can overlook, while they focus on Gronk, Amendola, and Cooks. Note that Hogan was sidelined for eight games this season, including seven of their last eight games. So, Brady has been trying to build a rapport back up with him. Early in the year when he was healthy, Hogan was looking great, hauling in more than 60 yards in six of seven games. He averaged 5.1 receptions per in those six games. With the extra time off, I expect the Patriots to draw something up to get Hogan involved more, especially with more attention on Amendola after last week.