Expert NFL Week 9 Picks Against The Spread

The 2012 NFL Season heads to Week 9. Before getting to my picks, let me recap the season. Prior to last week I had gone 2-1 five times for 5 of 7 winning weeks. Last week I went 0-3. I did the same in week 3 and in week 5 I went 1-2. The season record is now 11-13 for -3.35 units. Unfortunately, these things happen. Those following my picks since I began have gone 121-81-4 for 59.9% against the spread. The short term variance is why it is very important to manage your bankroll well. Record covered, I’ll now get you my free Week 9 picks against the spread.

Top Week 9 Teaser Bet

This is a pick that will only be valid for the next 12 hours as it uses the Thursday night game and I’m posting this Thursday morning. For that reason I’ll save the long write up and give you the short gist. The play is a 2-team 6-point teaser @ -110; risk 1.1 to win 1. The selections are San Diego Chargers teased -7.5 to -1.5 and the Minnesota Vikings teased +5 to +11. The first pick falls under basic teaser strategy. The second leg is what is called a Bill the Cop teaser. These are often not advised but in this game we expect low scoring which makes it an exception.

The quick warning is you’ll need to shop around a bit. For those outside the US this bet is available at Pinnacle Sports and Intertops. Inside the US, it’s available at JustBet. Be advised many other sites have shaded the Chargers to -9 to block this teaser. You’ll need to shop and find a sportsbook offering them at -7.5 to make this play.

Week 9 Pick #1 – Tease Chargers to -1.5 and Vikings to +11 – risk 1.1u to win 1 unit.

Miami Dolphins +2.5 -110 at Indianapolis Colts +2.5 -110

Football is America’s game and in the underdog spirit of America this is the Week 9 game I’m most looking forward to. This is because no one expected much from either of these teams, yet the winner will be 5-3. That record gives the winner control of their playoff destiny in the second half of the season. With the AFC having a lack of dominance this year, who would have thought it at the start, but it’s hard to count either of these teams out. Beyond that I have no bias and what I found most amazing is how deadlocked the numbers were.

Most statistical categories have these teams a near deadlock. Miami does have a considerable lead in keeping their opponents to a lower third down conversion rate, and on average with make more rezone stops and goal line stances than the Colts. On the offensive side they do have a decent advantage against the Colts run defense. However, they are so deficient in the passing game, and the Colts defense crushes them in this category, it could take away some from their run effectiveness if they’re not able to also open up the game at least some with the pass.

All that was covered above is still quite marginal. The Colts match up quite well here. While they’re a middle of the pack running team and Miami has a strong run defense, Miami has a poor pass defense with the Colts having a strong passing attack. The risk here is if this one does stay close is Miami has both clock killing abilities, and can also stop the Colts effectively from killing clock. This is reason I’m buying to +3. The reason I’m betting the Colts is they have a more balanced attack, and also do have more come from behind potential. With the home field advantage and a rejuvenated fan base I’m liking the Colts +3 -130.

Free Pick #2: Colts +3 -130 @ (buy -0.5 to get to this price) risk 1.3 to win 1.

Two Team 6.5 Point Ties Win Teaser

My final pick this week is simple math. Again, as covered in previous posts, I’m on 5Dimes rewards package #5 instead of reduced juice, which gets better odds on teasers. Any player can elect the one time option to change rewards packages by contacting live chat. Here I’m making a 2-team 6.5 point ties win teaser which had odds -115. The play is Teasing Baltimore Ravens from -3.5 to +3 “ties win” and teasing the Chicago Bears -3.5 to +3 “ties win”. I’m staking 1.15 to win 1 unit.

To explain quickly both these games have about an average betting total. For bets of 2-teams -115, each team needs to win an average of 73.1% of the time for the wager to average break even. Using the moneylines I can see Ravens winning is a 63.5% probability and Bears winning is a 62.8% probability. From here I know small favorites have historically lost by 1-3 points 10.8% of the time. Adding those probabilities together I get Ravens +3.5 at 74.3% and Bears +3.5 at 73.6%. Because ties win these are the actual lines I have even though the ticket reads +3. I need each leg to win 73.1% of the time to average break even. Using the market price and historical data I’m expecting 74.3% and 73.6%. This is obviously a +EV bet.

Free Pick #3: Tease Bears and Ravens both to +3 “ties win” |@ Risk 1.15u to win 1.0 units.