Expert NFL Week 15 Picks Against The Spread

The 2012 NFL Season is now in Week 15 and I’m writing this post on early Friday morning in the hours after the Bengals defeated the Eagles on Thursday night. That result has virtually eliminated the Bills, Dolphins, Browns and Chargers from the post season and has reduced the Jets chances. With that game having the potential impact it has had, it was important I waited for its conclusion to finalize the week 15 bets shared in this article. That said here are my free picks for this weekends action.

2-team 6-point Teaser

My first pick this week is a 2-team 6-point teaser at -110 (Risk 1.1 unit to win 1 unit). The specific bet is teasing the Dallas Cowboys +1.5 to +7.5 and teasing the New York Jets +1.5 to +7.5. This falls into basic teaser strategy and is also a strong play based on the circumstances.

The Cowboys are at home against the Steelers and both teams are desperate for a win. The Steelers still have a shot at the division but it is a 3 way race. It is likely whoever finishes second in their division gets the six seed wild card spot. The Bengals are now a half game up on them. The Steelers can draw even with a win here and then face the Bengals at home next week. The Cowboys however are not going to give it them. They are just one game back in both their division and the wild card race, and are at home in this match up. With motivation no question at all, this game should work out for basic strategy reasons.

If the Cowboys happen to win the game outright the Jets motivation greatly improves. They are a long shot to make the playoffs but… said and done, will likely hold the tie breaker if it comes to a multiple way tie for the sixth seed. This one also falls under basic strategy and the Titans have little to play for this week other than hopes of finishing the season strong. With the Jets motivation likely not in question and the Titans in question, this is a strong teaser leg.

Free pick #1: Cowboys +7.5 / Jets +7.5 risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit @

Kansas City Chiefs +3 @ Oakland Raiders -3

This is an interesting game as neither team really has motivation to win. These two teams are both still alive for finishing with the worst record in the NFL and getting the #1 pick in the 2013 NFL draft. However Kansas City is on the road here and has proved more than any other team that they are barely even trying to win. As they currently hold the #1 draft spot and desperately need a QB, I believe they’ll finish this week still holding that draft position. The Raiders being at home, the crowd keeps them in the game. They also need to draft defense next season where the Chiefs would likely take Gino Smith from WVU, leaving the Raiders a defensive pick.

Free Pick #2: Raiders -3 -115 @ risk 1.1 to win 1 unit.

Green Bay Packers -3 / Chicago Bears +3

This has become an absolute must win game for the Chicago Bears who started the season 7-1 only to so far in the second half of the season go 1-4. If they win this game their chances at a playoff spot remain strong with an outside chance of still winning the division. However if they lose this game there is an entire host of teams they are battling with for a chance at the wild card and their chances don’t look good. The Packers however can clinch the division this week if they beat the Bears. This will be hard fought division match, but the Packers have proven they are not the dominate team we expected them to be at the season start. In this important game for playoff implications, I like the home team who has the strongest motivation to win and is getting a field goal as the underdog.

Free pick #3: Bears +3 -110 @ risk 1.1 unit to win 1.0 unit.