The 2011 NFL Season is nearing its conclusion. On the AFC side we have the #1 seed New England Patriots and the #2 seed Baltimore Ravens remaining, so likewise no real surprises. The NFC side however is a little more shocking as the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints were the top two favorites to reach the Super Bowl, yet each were eliminated last week. This leaves us with an unexpected #2 seed San Francisco 49ers and #4 seed New York Giants set to battle it out at 6:30PM EST this Sunday, with the winner headed to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Free January 22, 2012 Playoff Picks
By far the best play on the board this week is a 2-team 6-point teaser at Bookmaker.eu, teasing Patriots to -1 and New York Giants to +8.5. If you understand teaser betting strategy, no deep explanation is required to justify this play. However what I’m going to suggest this week is increasing your wager size to 1.30 units to win 1.18 units on this same wager and then doing a small hedge
At www.5dimes.com the Baltimore Ravens are +650 to win the Super Bowl. As an insurance policy I’m going bet to risk 0.20 units to win 1.30 units on this future bet. This way if my teaser loses I still have a chance to break even should the Ravens win the Super Bowl.
Now in the event the Patriots win we’ll head to the final game down 0.20 units with 1.30 units additional at risk. This means if the Giants don’t cover +8.5 we’re down 1.5 units on the week, but if they do we finish the week up 0.98 units. This is good position to be in should it get to this point. However if it turns out the Ravens win, and you’re looking to bet the NFC Championship my suggestions are 49ers -2.5 -110 or better, or otherwise taking under the posted betting total. To be clear these are merely contingencies, not chases, for fans who wish to have action on the Sunday night game in the event our teaser has already lost.
Conference Championship Prop Bet
One my biggest strengths in football betting is NFL propositions. However I haven’t included any props in these articles in the past for reason that props are a small market and often times don’t open for betting until game day. However with this being a short week (only 2 games) and not having too many picks to give you I decided to shop around for what I suspect will be the best value prop this week. Once again the prop lines are not open yet.
I handicapped the QB passing yards over/under for the first game as Tom Brady 277 yards and Flacco 288 yards. If that ends up being the case, I’d strongly suggest betting under on Tom Brady and over on Joe Flacco. The thing is you’ll need to be watching close when the prop lines open at www.5dimes.com in order to lock these in. This is because props get considerable action during the playoffs and 30 point moves on the spread of this nature is not all that uncommon during the early stages. Also, I expect Flacco to have 32.5 more passing yards than Tom Brady. With fan biased being all over the Patriots, you might this betting line significantly better. To be clear, my predictions could be well off at what the betting line settles at, but I do believe my math and handicapping is sound on for this particular market.
This concludes my series of 20 free picks articles here at The Sports Geek. I enjoyed the time spent here and believe you’re in good hands with the handicappers posting on this site. As my final words, as always I wish all of you the best of luck on this week’s picks, as well as the Super Bowl.