Expert NFL Week 13 Picks Against The Spread 2012

The 2012 NFL Season has reached week 13 and I’m back with my free picks and predictions against the spread. This week I have two teaser bets and two plays from important Monday Night Football division matchup of New York Giants @ Washington Redskins played Monday December 3, 2012 at 8:30 PM Eastern Time Zone. I’ll cover the teasers first and then get to those Monday night picks against the spread and the total.

2-team 6-point teaser #1

This is a pure math based play using market prices. The wager is a 2-team 6-point teaser at teasing Chargers +2 to +8 and teasing the Broncos -7 to -1. The Chargers leg falls under basic teaser strategy and therefore needs no additional write up. The Broncos leg does not meet basic strategy but is profitable looking at the market price. The moneylines on this game are Broncos -325 / Buccs +285. This gives a no-vig market probability of Broncos winning 74.7% of the time. In a 2-team 6-point teaser each leg needs to cover 72.3% of the time. Half the value a push on one deducted and we’re still over the needed cover rate. This is solid +EV bet.

Free Pick #1: Tease Chargers to +8 / Broncos to -1 @ Risk 1.1u to win 1u.

2-team 6-point Teaser #2

Today was the first time I’ve ever played a 2-team 6-point teaser at -120 odds. When I first started betting these were available at even money. Eventually the odds moved to -110 and now some sites are -120. This is rare case where the odds are not shaded at the site with -120 and there is still value.

The specific play is using to tease Patriots -7 to -1 and 49ers -7 to -1

In In the 49ers game the moneylines are -320 / +281 which is a no-vig probably of 74.4% for the 49ers winning the game. In the Patriots game the moneylines are -350 / +305 which is a no-vig probably of 75.9% for the Patriots winning the game. The -1 is worth about 1% on average. This gives us 49ers -1 73.4% and Patriots -1 74.9%. In this teaser we need each team to win 73.9% of the time to average break even. That gives us 0.5% under and 1.0% over which combine to be slightly +EV. For this one I’m making it a half unit play.

Free Pick #2: Tease Patriots to -1 / 49ers to -1 @ Risk 1.2 to win 1u.

New York Giants +3 +105 @ Washing Redskins +3 -125

This is the Week 13 Monday Night Football game and quite honestly I’m shocked at the betting line. When I handicapped this game just on a paper I was getting New York Giants -3.5 on a neutral field which should make them -1 at best here. I can best explain the reason for the line being what is that 1) the Giants blew out the Packers last week and 2) the Redskins are out matched with a poor passing defense. However the Giants are forced to rely more heavily on the pass with Ahmad Bradshaw taking the bulk of carries with Andre Brown out. The fact the Giants blew the Packers out last week means little. All this information was factored in when I started handicapping the line.

What wasn’t factored is the Washington Redskins played a Thursday afternoon game and have had all this added time to prepare for a division game which is critical to the season. No teams in NFL football know other teams better than the teams in their division. They know before the schedule is even released they’ll be playing each division team twice. Teams build and sign personnel around their division matches. All things considered and having a great line I am making a confident 1 unit wager on the Redskins here.

Free Pick #3: Redskins +3 -125 @ Bovada Risk 1.25u to win 1u.

My final pick also comes from the same game. The betting total of 51 assumes two things. The Giants are likely to lead in this game, and that they will be doing so by exploiting the Redskins pass defense. This is however a game featuring two veteran coaches in a prime time match up which is a critical division game with major playoff implications. Both teams should be willing to get into a shootout if needed but avoiding mistakes is far more critical here. 50 is a key number, moving off that and picking up a push on the rare 51 this is a decent under play. The strong reason is as hinted to in pick #3 I expect the Giants pass game to be slightly less than the market is giving it credit for in this match for the reason stated. For reason these are correlated some but not enough to make the parlay worth it, I’m going to reduce this and make it a half unit play.

Free Pick #4: Giants/Redskins u51 -110 @ Bovada Risk 0.55u to win 0.5u