The 2011 NFL Season heads to Week 13, and for the first time in 2-months we’re coming into it without momentum on our side. Yes to address the elephant in the room first, last week my free picks went 2-3-1 for -1.43 units. The good news is despite the rare loss we’re still up big on the season with a record of 29-16-3 for +11.06 on picks +105 to -128, and 1-3 for +3.00 units on long shot multiples. I’m not going to win every week, but I guarantee you over the long haul betting my free picks will make you a profit.
Heading to week 13, I’m extremely excited and optimistic we’ll get right back to our winning ways. I spent 14 hours pricing the point spread, moneyline, total and alternate point spreads for all 16 games prior to the lines coming out this week. It’s currently 6AM Tuesday morning and I’ve made 9 wagers for Week 13, which is a few more than I usually make. Unfortunately, only five of these were made at US betting sites, the other four at Pinnacle Sports which doesn’t take US players. I’ll give you a quick write up on the 5 friendly to US, and then provide you with the other four as well.
Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
The Oakland Raiders are now 7-4 on the season and are a dominate favorite to win their division, yet the betting market is still not hot on this team. Although all their wins and losses could be picked apart to show the team hasn’t played as well as their record suggests, other than the one game that KC blew them out weeks ago the Raiders have preformed quite well on a game to game basis. Their record is far from luck, they easily could have won the Bills game way back Week 2, and meanwhile we’re on the wrong side of a bad call and made two costly mistakes in the Pats game; a game much closer than indicated by the final score. As far as their wins, yes these were against weak opponents but all the games were won without any fluke situations involved. Keep in mind you can only beat the teams you play.
This is very interesting matchup because the Raiders run game is extremely impressively as is the Dolphins rush defense. The big edge here goes to Miami running the ball, but I do suspect the Raiders having a veteran QB under center is going to help big time in tipping the edge back towards the Raiders side. Carson Palmer’s stats might not look impressive on the surface this season, but he’s only played 5 games. I expect you’re going to see very similar stats from him as he had in the Vikings and Chargers games because Miami is weak on this side of the ball.
The big factor here is motivation. When game comes down to the wire, which team wants to win more? The Dolphins have no doubt been playing their hearts out the past 4 games – but this game has much more importance to the Raiders who are not in the clear just yet for a playoff spot. With Green Bay and the Lions on their remaining schedule this is a must win game. With a point spread of 3, I have this game near a coin flip prior to considering motivation. A lot of people discount this factor in the NFL, but late in the season when teams need a win – the team who wants it more is the one likely to dig deep and find a way to perform better than expected. My top picks this week is Raiders +3.
Free Pick #1: Raiders +3 -115 @ BetOnline
Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals
This is a similar situation, the Cowboys have two head-to-head match ups with the Giants remaining so have no room to slip up. Honestly, I’m not high on the Cowboys at all, but motivation is a huge factor here. I handicapped this one at -5.5 and it would have took getting Cardinals +6 +100 or Cowboys -4 -110 to turn this into a bet. The later can be found right now at 5Dimes, making this as solid play.
Free Pick #2 Cowboys -4 -110 @ 5Dimes
Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears
I’m actually disappointed slightly that Kyle Orton is probably going to be the QB for this match as he’s had very little time to learn the offense – but he is an experienced quarterback and this is something the Chiefs have been without for a while. The bottom line here is this game should be very low scoring and getting +8 is too good to pass up considering I handicapped this as the Bears favored by six points. I don’t see how putting a veteran QB into the mix, even though unfamiliar with the offense, should cause the spread to move past 7. Chiefs anything better than +7 is a solid play in my book.
Free Pick #3 Chiefs +8 -110 @ Bodog
NFL Week 13 Teasers
There are two teasers I love this week for three reasons: 1) Inflated point spreads, 2) 5Dimes line shades and 3) 5Dimes great teaser odds. If you scroll through some of my past posts you can find some detailed teaser analysis using math. Having done this already last week, and weeks prior, I’ll save the math this week and just give you my top two teaser bets.
Free pick #4: 2-Team 6-Point “Ties Win Teaser” Rams +21 Colts +28 (-105 @ 5Dimes)
Free Pick #5: 2-Team 6.5-Point “Ties Win Teaser” Browns +14 / Bengals +14 (-115 @ 5Dimes)
Note: Please make sure to use “ties win”, you should notice I effectively have Rams +21.5 / Colts +28.5 and Browns +14.5 and Bengals +14.5. The ties win is a key for these point spreads.
Picks for Non-US Punters
There are four additional picks I like this week, but they require getting the right odds and for these I don’t see them at US Sportsbooks at this time. I’m going to count these as picks as the spreads are available at PinnacleSports.com (no US Players) right now, but some readers (those living in the US) might need to wait until later in the week to see if these can be found elsewhere.
Free Pick #6: Jets -3 -104 @ Pinnacle Sports
Free Pick #7: Panthers +3.5 -105 @ Pinnacle Sports
Free Pick #8: Titans +1 +101 @ Pinnacle Sports
Free Pick #9: Chargers -1 -131 @ Pinnacle Sports
To quickly cover what odds you’ll need to find to make these bets. Jets is a pick @ -3 -105 or better only. The Panthers is worth playing at +3.5 up to -110. The Titans you need +1 and even money, or +2 -110. The Chargers game I expect is going to be low scoring, in most spots -2.5 -110 would be the better wager here, however I’d strong try getting -1 -131 or better, or Moneyline -137 or better to make this a play. A final comment, yes that’s a LOT of road teams this week, and it made me uneasy as well. However, please understand that road versus home is well factored into my analysis and this is merely a freak coincidence it so happened to fall this way.