The 2012 NFL Season heads to week 14 and as always in this article I’ll provide you my free picks and predictions against the spread. First, an update: though thirteen weeks my free picks here at The Sports Geek have gone 21-19-1 for -0.60 units. Being slightly down on the season is mostly attributed to going 0-3 in week 3 and 0-3 again in week 8. Obviously these are not the results I was expecting at the season’s outset, but we’ve made up ground in the second half and I have four more weeks of games to work with as a push for a strong finish. All this said let me get you my week 14 bets.
Baltimore Ravens +3 -125 at Washington Redskins -3 +105
This is my sole point spread pick for week 14. The odds markers opened this line as a pick prior to the Monday night game being played. Nothing changed as the Ravens had already played when that line opened. This was a move that largely reflects the fact the Redskins pulled off a 1-point victory over the New York Giants while a small home underdog on Monday night. There are several factors that make me like the Ravens in this one. First the Redskins playing on Monday night means shorter rest. Second teams coming off emotional close victories tend to underperform the following week. Vice versa is true and applies to the Ravens. I had this one handicapped at Redskins only slightly more favored than a pick. With Baltimore Ravens +3 -125 available this is an easy play.
Free Pick #1: Ravens +3 -125 at www.bovada.lv risk 1.25 to win 1.0.
2-team 6-point teaser
This is a straight math play that at the moment requires using Intertops.eu, but there might be other websites the same wager is available later in the week. The play is teasing Buccs from -7 to 1 and Packers from -6.5 to -0.5 in a 2-team 6-point teaser @ -110 odds. In this form of teaser each team needs to win 72.3% of the time to break even. Currently the moneyline on the Buccs is -330 with +270 on the other side. This is a no-vig win probability of 74%. As a push on -1 is worth less than the 1.7% difference, this selection is +EV. For the other selection the moneylines are -300 / +250 which is a no vig win probability of 72.4% and just over the required break even rate. With both legs checking out this is a solid non-traditional teaser wager.
Free Pick #2: 2-team teaser of Buccs -1 / Packers -0.5 risk 1.1 to win 1.0
3-team 10-point “ties lose” Teaser
www.5dimes.eu has the three largest Week 14 underdogs shaded. They have +11.5 on Raiders, Cardinals and Dolphins where their competitor Pinnacle Sports has Raiders +10.5 -115, Cardinals +10.5 -110 and Dolphins +10 -103. 5Dimes also offers those on rewards package #5 3-team 10-point ties lose teasers at -110 which have a per team 80.6% required cover rate to break even. When evaluating teasing each leg to +21.5, I used push rates to calculate an 80% probability for each. This was before noticing two of these games have a low over/under betting total (39 which is low and 34.5 which is extremely low). For games that are not expecting much scoring an over 3 touchdown victory becomes even less likely. This one has borderline on the value but I feel it is well work a half-unit play.
Free Pick #3: Teaser of Raiders +21.5, Cardinals +21.5, Dolphins +21.5 risk 0.55 to win 0.5.