Last season I did an article on sweetheart teasers and mentioned that on rare occasions these can be +EV. The good news for those who like action is this in one of those weeks, though you’ll need to act quickly once this is posted publicly to lock this in. Right now no-vig moneylines are showing Steelers have an 89.1% chance of winning their game and the Ravens have a 90.5% chance of winnings theirs. At 5Dimes 4-team 14-point “ties lose” teasers are offered at -160. In order for a wager under these terms to be +EV each leg needs to cover 88.6% of the time.
It’s possible right now to take Steelers -1 “ties lose” and Raven -2.5 “ties lose”. The first of these options is very close to neutral EV, where second is +EV. I needed to select two other teams to go with this. The easy choice was teasing Chicago to +17.5 for reason they are closer to +3 than they are +3.5 at most reduced juice betting sites and also this game has a very low projected total; the over/under is just 35.5. This should be a considerable +EV leg. My final choice is taking advantage of a major line shade and another low point spread. At 5Dimes Chiefs are shaded to +10.5 but are +9 elsewhere. Adding them to this teaser I get Chiefs +24.5 in a game has a posted betting total of just 36.5; this leg is +EV as well. I debated this wager with a few sharp punters and had mixed response, however I am confident this is a rare spot where a +EV sweetheart teaser option exists.
Two Additional Week 14 Picks
Last week I found a large number of wagers early due to the board appearing wide open. Unfortunately, these picks went 4-4 for -0.45 units, dropping the season record to a still incredibly impressive 33-20-16 for +10.61 units on picks +105 to -128, and 1-3 for +3.00u on +EV long shot wagers. This week the board is far tighter, but does have two additional solid bets on it.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
The Texans caught themselves some breathing room last week and are now 9-3 on the season while the Bengals have dropped three of their last 4 and now sit at 7-5 with their Cinderella season apparently not be. I’m actually betting here that the Bengals do stay in the mix and pick up the win this week. The Texans entire team is injured so it makes it very difficult to handicap this one. However knowing that bettors rely far too much on last week’s results, this is the classic case where the team that appears headed in the wrong direction has value.
Basic Strategy Teaser
My final this pick this week is based on basic teaser strategy and shouldn’t need too much explanation other than that article. To break it down quickly though in 2-team 6.5 point teasers at -120, each selection needs to win 73.9% of the time in order for the wager to average break even. After removing vig from the moneylines I see the Jets have a 80.6% no-vig win probability and the Patriots have a 78.1% no-vig win probability. A 6.5 teaser gives me Jets -2.5 and Patriots -1.5. The push rates are close to 1% on both -1 and -2. As rough estimate this gives me expected cover rates of Jets -2.5 78.6% and Patriots -1.5 77.1%. Needing each to cover only 73.9% of the time to break even, we’re well exceeding that and have a wager with large positive expected value here.