Sports Geeks are now 4-2 for +1.5 units on the NFL season with my free picks. At the time I’m writing this post it is 10AM on Tuesday afternoon. This will be a common theme with many of my free picks post this season. You’ll want to stay tuned to TheSportsGeek.com to get and bet my picks as soon as the posts are made. This will get you the most value.
Urgent Bet to Make ASAP
The opportunity for this bet popped up moments ago at www.betonline.ag. I was already writing to suggest a 2-team 6.5-point teaser @ -120 elsewhere, and had to edit it due to a line move in our favor. This bet has the most value of any picks I’ve provided so far this season. The play is a team 2-team 6-point teaser @ -110 at BetOnline (risk 1.1u to win 1u). The selections are teasing Chicago Bears -7 to -1 and Carolina Panthers +1.5 to +7.5. The urgency here is I do not expect the Bears will still be listed at -7.0 come game time. They are already shaded to -9.0 and -9.5 at some sportsbooks in order to block this teaser.
In 2-team teasers @ -110 each leg needs to win 72.4% of the time to average break even. We have Bears -1 which is essentially a pick. Currently the moneylines on this game reflects a no-vig win probability of 77.5%. For a push on one we need to deduct 1.3%. This gives us an expected cover rate of 76.2% and we only need to win 72.4% of the time. That’s a very large edge!
The other factor is the Rams are coming off an emotional win in a tough played game, where the Bears are coming off a loss with extra time to rest due to playing on Thursday last week. Both these situations heavily side Bears as does the betting math. The second selection of the teaser has a very small negative advantage (almost even). But teasers require us to pick a second leg, and small negative with large positive still equals considerable +EV. This is the best pick I see on the board so far this week.
Week 3 Point Buy Special
My second pick this week is also at BetOnline which is odd because I don’t bet here too often. This play exploits an off market price and also a simple bookmaking error where BetOnline offers the ability to purchase up to 4 half points for the same pricing. The play is to select New Orleans Saints -8.0, add them to straight wager and buy 2-full-points taking them -6 -160. That’s a steep price for a single pick, but doing it this way cuts the bookmaker’s advantage nearly in half. This is all I can share publicly regarding this pick. But to note this is an off-market price as the point spread is -8.5 and -9 elsewhere. Generally speaking it is not profitable to buy 6.5 to -6, but when starting at -6.5 -150 the extra half point for a dime is a bargain.
Philadelphia Eagles -4 -110 @ Arizona Cardinals +4 -110
The Cardinals are a shock 2-0 on the season. They won as 3-point underdogs at home versus Seattle opening weekend, and then went on the road as a 13.5 underdog and defeated the Patriots last week. Week #3 they’re at home hosting the Eagles who they pulled off a big upset over last season while also a 13.5 point underdog. This is a situation though where the betting odd are a bit off.
We had the Cardinals in a teaser last week, and covered by 23.5 points. Winning the game outright had some to do with a solid performance, but also a lot to do with luck and the Patriots failed opportunities. Kevin Kolb completed only 15-27 passes (55.6%) for 140 yards, was sacked, and had one TD and 0 INT. They also rushed for 105 yards. So hardly much offense generated by the Chiefs. The defense did have an “okay” game considering their opponent. They gave up 297 passing yards and 90 rushing yards. Overall the Patriots won this match in all categories other than the turnover battle and the final score. There are several factors for my pick this week. First is Arizona is now highly overrated at 2-0 and from knocking off the top team in the power rankings. Secondly teams coming off big emotional road wins like they just have often don’t perform well the week following. From here the Eagles, while 2-0, are also undervalued as they’re 0-2 against the spread.
My pick this week is Eagles -4 -110 @ www.bovada.lv. If you don’t already have an account there a 50% up to $250 initial deposit match bonus is available.
Free Pick Results ATS So Far:
Week 1: 2-1 for +0.5 Units
Week 2: 2-1 for +1.0 Units
Total: 4-2 for +1.5 Units
Be sure to keep an eye out next week so you can jump on my Week 4 NFL picks early.