The 2012 NFL Season is now in full swing and there are several surprises. The biggest include the Arizona Cardinals at 3-0, the New England Patriots at 1-2 and the Saints at 0-3. We ourselves are coming off a brutal week. In the teaser bet we beat the closer by 4 points, teasing +1.5 to +7.5 and come game time the line was -2.5. The math also proved sound in the other two plays as we beat the closing line by more than the theoretic hold in each. In short we got our money in good, but fell to 4-5 ATS on the season. With the intro out of the way, let’s get to my Week 4 NFL Picks.
2012 Week 4 Teaser Bet
My first bet this week is a 3-team 7-point “ties win” teaser +142 at www.5dimes.eu. Again these promotional teaser odds are available for those on 5Dimes rewards option 5: “Point Mover Special Reward Program”. The play is teasing Cleveland Browns +14.5 to +21.5, Tennessee Titans +14 to +21 (ties win) and Miami Dolphins +7 to +14 (ties win).
I’ve covered teaser betting strategy a lot in the past so won’t rehash the math. To instead cover it quickly, when having 3-teams +142 we need each team to win 74.5% of the time average break even. 5Dimes is shading the lines here so we’re getting extra points on the teaser and also have their promotional teaser odds. The Browns are currently a 50.7% no-vig probability at +13. Here we cross several key numbers including 14, 17, and 21. This game has an average total, and straight push charts show me this is worth roughly a 23.9% increase, making this selection essentially neutral EV. The Titans are very similar; their market probability at +12 is 49.5%. The extra 1.2%, we pick up most of it with 0.7% more on 13, and 0.4% more on the 12, and this also has an average total.
The real value of this teaser bet comes in the Dolphins leg. This game has a very low expected total (over/under is 39). Their market no-vig probability on +6.5 is 52.0%. Here we cross key numbers in 7, 10 and 14. Even without adjusting for the low total, the expected increase in win rate is 23.6%. This gives us: 52%+23.6%=75.6%. Remember each selection only needs to win 74.5% of the time to average break even. This again, also doesn’t factor that this game is expected to be low scoring. So in short two neutral EV selections with a section that has a strong edge = a solid +EV wager.
Carolina Panthers +7.5 @ Atlanta Falcons -7.5
This fits perfect into basic teaser strategy and there are several places to match it. However, this doesn’t matter as much when the underdog side of the bet is +EV. NFL teams prepare for division matches during the entire offseason and during the season as well. There are no teams that teams know better than their division opponents. This is why we often see division games closely contested. There are several other factors in this game as well.
The Panthers have had more time to prepare. They played their Week 3 game on Thursday so have had more time to rest, practice and review film. The motivation factor is also strong as they are coming off an embarrassing loss. Teams with added time to prepare, and teams coming off a massive loss generally perform better than expected. The Falcons are coming off a blow off win and the market is high on them. Notice several books are not shading this line to block the teaser bet which will be a popular wager. The correct side of this one, and my bet is Panthers +7.5 -110. This is available at the moment at www.bookmaker.eu, but should be available at more sites as game time approaches.
New England Patriots -3.5 @ Buffalo Bills +3.5
We’ve been correct on Patriots so far this season. We backed them Week 1 and won, and bet against them week 2 and won. Week 2 was a classic look-ahead situation where they were nearly a two touchdown favorite and one of the few tough games on their schedule was coming up the week ahead. Such upsets happen frequent enough in the NFL and this factored into the bet we made.
Looking to the Patriots game week 4, the market is low on them as their record is 1-2 for their worst start since 2003. With bettors burned two weeks in a row, expect a lot more will be gun shy this week. However, nothing out of the ordinary really took place here. The Pats were an underdog Week 3 and backdoor covered. Also it was only a final seconds field goal (that were still not sure was actually good) that prevented from winning outright. Even at 1-2 this team is still the driver’s seat with one of the weakest schedules in the league. Look for the Pats to be intense this week and win by a decided margin. My Pick = Patriots -3.5 -110 @ www.5dimes.eu.