The 2012 Season moves to week number 6. At the time I’m writing this post it is Tuesday evening and there is considerable value in early the lines for Sunday’s games. I’ll save the introduction and get straight to my NFL week 6 free picks against the spread where I have a large +EV teaser bet, and two point spread wagers all with www.bovada.lv.
Top Week 6 Teaser Bet
Bovada reduced their teaser payouts from last season but are still quite competitive on 3-team 7-point teaser at +140. This week they are hanging out a gift that is incredibly important to jump on early. I’ll go ahead and breakdown each leg of this play.
Tease Cleveland Browns +3 to +10: A quick comment is generally never does it make sense to tease +3 to +10. It actually defies basic teaser strategy in more way than one. There are two reasons there is an exception this week. The first is Bovada has great odds on 3-teams 7-points teasers. If we push we get knocked down to a 2-team teaser which is fine as they offer standard odds on these. The second reason is the Browns are +1 and a PK (+0) at most other betting sites. This is huge added value and no doubt a +EV teaser selection.
Tease Rams +3.5 to +10.5: Here’s another pick that defies basic strategy, however there’s a few factors to consider here. With a betting total of 37.5 and most the early action on the under, points are at a large premium this game. Also this point spread is moving closer to +3 at most sports books. Fully crossing the 10 in a game where not many points are expected is a solid play. Also the Rams played Week 5 on Thursday which means more time to prepare. The Dolphins are coming off a tough fought close game win, have less time to prepare and some health concerns. The Rams are solid play straight up but this is a spot where a teaser makes more sense.
Tease Chiefs +3.5 to +10.5: This is another game with a low betting over/under betting total (40) however we have less going for us in the intangibles. The Buccs are coming off a bye where the Chiefs are coming off a tough loss in a low scoring game. The low betting total however is a major factor. We have to go all the way back to the 2010 season to find the last time the Buccs have beaten anyone by a double digit score. The defence of the Chiefs and the fact this one does not expect excessive scoring makes this a solid play.
Week 6 Bet #1: 3-team 7-point teaser +140 – Browns +10 / Rams +10.5 / Chiefs +10.5 risk 1 unit to win 1.4 units at www.bovada.lv.
Detroit Lions +5 -110 @ Philadelphia Eagles -5 -110
After beating the Rams in the opening weekend, the Detroit Lions have dropped three straight games losing on the road to the 49ers 19-27 and Titans 41-44 in OT, and at home Week 4 to Vikings 20-13 in a game the Vikings scored on both a kick off and a punt. The Lions once again have fallen to highly underrated status with the market not too high on them. They’re however a well-coached team and are coming off their bye week. The Eagles on the other hand are 3-2 on the season. However, in the 3 games they have won they beat their opponents by 1 point, 1 point and 2 points. That’s a total of 4 point difference in their 3 wins on the season. Both teams have struggled this season, but the Lions coming off the bye and getting 5 points makes them the sold play.
Week 6 Bet #2: Detroit Lions +5 -110 @ www.bovada.lv. Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
New England Patriots -4 -110 at Seattle Seahawks +4 -110
This is one of those picks where my gut says one thing and the numbers say another. The New England Patriots have been dominant in their two most recent games. However Tom Brady has never played a regular season road game in Seattle. The home field advantage here is strong. Also the Seahawks are a defensive minded team and a legit one at that. On the offensive side they are against the Patriots who have trouble stopping the pass. This is very favourable match up for Seattle. Considering most sites that this +3.5 and closer to +3 and Bovada is giving us a gift at +4 -110, we’re going to take it.
Week 6 Bet #3: Seattle Seahawks +4 -110 @ www.bovada.lv. Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.