gravatar

Expert NFL Week 7 Picks Against The Spread

The 2012 NFL regular season is now 35% complete and everyone is a winner. What I mean by that is last week the New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns both won so we have no zero win teams remaining. Week 7 which I’m about to provide free picks for will not change the ranks of undefeated teams. The single team without a loss is the 6-0 Atlanta Falcons and they have a bye this week. With some chit chat out of the way let me dive into my 2012 NFL Week 7 free betting picks.

Thursday Night Game – Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

This game has all the makings for a highly +EV teaser leg by selecting the 49ers in a tease. One factor is the 49ers were blown out last week and when this happens to good teams they generally bounce back very strong the week that follows. The Seahawks on the other hand are coming off an emotional come from behind victory where they defeated the Patriots 24-23. Teams coming off emotional wins tend to not fare so well the following week. The other factor is these are two defensive minded teams, so we’re expecting a low scoring game where points are at a premium. The best play here is to tease the 49ers from -7 to -1.

Doing so requires finding a second leg. I had contemplated taking the Carolina Panthers +2 to +8 because it fits basic strategy, but there’s actually a much better and nontraditional leg to select here. That leg is teasing the Houston Texans -7 to -1. The reason is similar to the first pick; we are dealing with quality teams in the same situations. The Ravens are come off a close game victory where the Texans are coming off their first loss of the season and were beat decisively. The Ravens also have lost Ray Lewis for the season. The moneyline has been back and forth as to whether this is +EV but I expect come game time this settles where it needs to. Regardless I’ve capped these games and consider this the stronger play with the intangibles considered.

Week 7 Free Pick #1: 2-team 6-point teaser @ BetOnline.ag 49ers -1 / Texans -1 risk 1.1u to win 1 unit.

Cleveland Browns +2.5 -110 @ Indianapolis Colts -2.5

This is a game that I’d normally go the opposite way of the side I’m betting. It fits the same model as used in the first Week 7 bet I shared. The Browns got their first win of the season last week, while the Colts got blown out. However we’re not dealing quality teams and in this game the numbers just don’t add up. The Browns score better or are in a near statistical deadlock in every single category head to head except third down efficiency. They score more points per play and give up fewer points per play.

The matchup also have the Browns more likely to dominate time of possession in this one as they should be able to rush the pass, and Colts give up a lot of yards on the ground. On a neutral field I have the Browns a 3.5 point favorite in this match with predicted total of 42.5. The betting market has a bit higher total, but I don’t feel the Colts home field advantage justified the large difference nor do the intangibles offset enough.

Week 7 Free Pick #2: Cleveland Browns +2.5 -110 @ www.bookmaker.eu

3-team 10.5-point ties Lose Tease @ 5Dimes -120

The final play I have for this week is a 3-team 10.5 point teaser at 5Dimes odds -120 (ties lose). The first selection is the New England Patriots teased 11.5 to -1. In 3-team -120 teasers each leg needs to win 81.7% of the time to average break even. This first selection the money lines reflect the Patriots have an 82.6% no-vig win probability. There’s not enough data to quantify how often teams favored by 10.5 or more win by exactly 1 point but it’s not going to be often. This has selection has about neutral value.

The next selection is the Jacksonville Jaguars teased +4 to +14.5. As horrible as the Jags are they’re coming off a bye week. The Raiders showed some defensive life last week but this had a lot to do with uncanny foolish mistakes by Matt Ryan and their offense dominating the time of possession. The Raiders defense is about as poor as it gets and giving the Jags extra week to prepare makes this is a solid leg.

The final leg is to tease Arizona Cardinals +7 to +17.5. First this is an off market price, the line is +6 at most sites but +7 -130 at 5Dimes. This game isn’t expected to be high scoring with a low betting over/under total of 40. The extra point on the shade gives us two touchdowns and a field goal spotted on what should be a low scoring game making this a solid play.

Week 7 Free Pick #3: Patriots -1 / Jaguars +14.5 / Cardinals +17.5 @ www.5dimes.eu using 10.5 point ties lose teaser. Risk 1.2 to win 1 unit.