Expert NFL Week 7 Picks Against The Spread

The 2011 NFL Season heads to week 7 this week, and I’ll get this week’s games in just a moment. First, to recap the results through the first 6 weeks, my free posted picks have gone 14-9-3 for +3.14 units. However, US sports bettors who followed my advice a few weeks back might have a loss as opposed to push on one of those bets. If so, their record is 13-10-2 for +2.04 units of profit. In either case, we’re looking good and on track for a very successful season together.

Moving on to 2011 NFL Week 7, in my opinion the board appears juicer than it actually is this week. Although I don’t believe in “trap games” there are some betting lines I feel recreational punters might get too excited about. For example: Detroit Lions -3, I picked up at the start of last season the Lions are a team with a ton of heart that always fight to every whistle no matter how much they’re down in a game. However, as odd as this might sound, it’s been an eternity (in Detroit years that is) since the Lions have lost a game. You might remember last season they won their final 4-games, and since went 4-0 in the preseason and started 5-0 this season. That’s a lot of straight victories the Lions have strung together. Now coming off a heartbreaking loss, where they broke down at the end of the game, it will be interesting to see how they bounce back. This brings me to my first 2011 NFL week 7 wager.

3 Team Teaser: Lions +3.5 / Ravens -2.5 / Colts +21.5 (Odds +172)

The above wager is only available at 5Dimes.com and to get it you’re making a 3-team 6-point “ties win” teaser. The ticket will read Lions +3 / Raven -3 / Colts +21.5 but because “ties win” the lines are +3.5 and -2.5 for the first two selections. Of course, I just explained the Lions are a risky bet because they haven’t played after a loss in so long. What do I know however is that good teams that lose late in the 4th quarter very often bounce back strong the following weeks. I feel putting them in the teaser and limiting my liability is worth it, as I still want to take advantage of this trend. For the other legs, the Ravens leg falls under basic teaser strategy and 5Dimes is shading the line on the Colts in such a way we grab extra value. Of course I love risking just 1 unit to get paid 1.72 as well in this rare case where a trebles combo wager is +EV.

Two Team Teaser: Buccs +7.5 / Packers -2.5 (Odds -110)

Another line I feel a few bettors might get caught off guard by is the Bears -1.5. Jay Cutler had an excellent game last week completing 21 of 31 passes for 267 yards and two touchdowns as the Bears stomped the Vikings. However if you recall back in week 2, betting the Saints over the Bears was my play of the week. Although the scenario isn’t exactly the same and the Buccs fall into a classic letdown trend as well, I feel the Chicago Bears are far more susceptible to this then Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now considering teasing the Buccs falls under basic strategy and there is another leg available (Packers -2.5) also falling in basic strategy to match them with, teasing the Buccs is better than betting them straight. Note: these odds are available at CRIS sportsbooks @ -110.

Line Shade Play of the Week: Chiefs +14.5 / Dolphins +7.5 (Odds -128)

5Dimes has given us a plethora of free money this season due to goofy ways they set the odds. This must be working out for them overall as they make extra money from recreational punters who are none the wiser, but so long as they keep giving us this value I’ll keep taking it. Here I’m using a 7-point “ties win” teaser to get Dolphins +7 and Chiefs +14. As “ties win”, the true line for me is Dolphins +7.5 / Chiefs +14.5. Many past weeks I’ve explained the math on calculating this, so I’ll save rehashing it and just say this bet has strong positive expected value as we’re taking advantage of 5Dimes’ gross line shades.

Potential Straight Bets

As I mentioned in earlier, the board appears a lot juicer than it actually is. I honestly would love to give you a straight wager on the point spread, or a bet on the total, but after searching all week here, for the first time in two years I don’t see a +EV point spread wager. Although I won’t be counting these in my record, if you’re into straight bet on the point spread only, then a few I considered and then passed on were Texans +3.5 -115 @ Pinnacle, Buccs +1.5 -110 @ Bookmaker, Redskins +3 -125 @ Bodog and Jets +2.5 -110 @ Bodog. Those are leans as opposed to actual bets I made.

This concludes my 2011 NFL Week 7 picks. I hope to be back here next week reporting an increase to our current record which is either 14-9-3 for +3.14 units or 13-10-2 for +2.04 units, depending on whether or not you’re restricted to US betting sites. As always I wish you the best of luck.