The 2011 NFL Season has reached the halfway mark and those following my free picks are now at worse 18-11-2 on the season. Although we’ve now won several weeks in a row together, let me remind you… winning sports betting is about managing your money well and increasing your bankroll over time; in other words… it’s an investment. I’m not going win every week, but over the long haul if you follow my picks you WILL make money. I’m confident of this… I’m now 32-years old and have spent 50% of my life as a professional gambler. While other sites have bloggers making predictions, here at thesportsgeek.com you’re getting bets a professional (myself) has already wagered with his own money. With that said, be sure to bookmark this site and return each and every week for high quality free sports picks.
2011 NFL Week 9 Picks and Predictions
My top pick this week comes from the Sunday November 6 , 2011 1PM game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Washington Redskins. I don’t have much deep analysis on this one other than what I told you last week. I’ve viewed time and time again what happens when Coach Shanahan loses control of his team…it’s ugly and he appears to not even try to win the game. Last week was perfect example of this where down 3 possessions his team huddled and used up the full play-clock throughout the fourth quarter. In the NFL there are jobs on the line, performance bonuses, future contract negotiations to consider, so many players are not going to just roll over so there will be a fight. However, the variable here is Coach Shanahan who tends to make a mess of things every time his back is against the wall – I’m buying the half-point at 5Dimes and betting the 49ers -3 -125.
Green Bay Packers @ San Diego Chargers
As you might be aware I’m a firm believer NFL betting is a near efficient market. However, there are situations the market tends not to account for well. One of these is a long term trend that shows teams that experience a heart breaking loss bounce back incredibly strong the following week, where teams that come off a blowout win, or pull off an upset as a large underdog, generally do poorly the week that follows. This has a lot to do with team mindset, overconfidence or partying to hard – or on the other side of it – hearing it from their coaches, teammates, friend, family media and practicing their asses off so they don’t hear more of it next week.
Now in case you missed it, the Chargers were a kneel down and a chip-shot field goal away from an impressive come from behind victory… but Philip Rivers made a huge mistake. He fumbled the snap on a play they didn’t need to run, and the Chargers went on to lose in overtime. They should be coming to this game with a vengeance due to hearing it all week from everyone. However the other variables all point Green Bay Packers by a mile.
To start off I handicapped this game based only on stats and had Packers as a 4.9 point favorite. After adjustments and before even viewing the line I had them as a 6.7 point favorite. If you recall last season I did an article on the effects of the bye week where my general analysis stated: the better a team is the more benefit from having the bye. The Packers are #1 in the power rankings, deserve to be, and it’s not even a close race – the week 8 bye was not doubt a huge advantage for them. Now the other major factor here is the Chargers played Monday night on the road 1700 miles from home. The short week negates some of that bounce back advantage I generally make an adjustment for. All thing considered I feel the correct line on this game should be around Packers -6.5 -115. At the same time I completely understand why the market has it the way it does, and feel we can exploit that.
There are handful of Euro bookmakers who have this line at -5.5 -105, but for those in the US the best for -5.5 is -110. With that considered the current -6 +100 offered at www.betonline.com is a better play. This is what I’ll track my bet at, but for anyone that can take -5.5 -105 or better I suggest this instead.
Three Additional Teaser Bets
I’m not going to provide full write ups for these as two are basic strategy teasers and with the other we’re taking advantage of 5Dimes lines shades which is something I’ve discussed in depth in previous posts this season with a lot of math in the examples. So here I’m just going to give you the plays and you can read back in my past posts or my article on basic strategy teasers if you need help with the specific strategy.
Teaser Bet #1
I wagered a 3-team 6-point teaser at www.bodog.eu which pays +180 on a win. The teams and their teased spreads are Saints -2.5, Eagles -2, and Jets +7.5.
Teaser Bet #2
At www.bookmaker.eu I wagered 2-team 6-point teaser at odds -110. The teams their teaser spreads are Patriots -2.5 and Raiders -1.5.
Teaser Bet #3
My final teaser for NFL Week 9 was taking advantage of the 5Dimes line shades. For this I did a 2-team 6-point “ties win” teaser at odds -105 using their lines which were listed as Colts +8 -135 and Cardinals -3 -130. So my ticket reads Colts +14 / Cardinals +3, but because “ties win” I’m actually getting Colts +14.5 and Cardinals +3.5 at odds -105.
Free Bonus Pick
For anyone likes to gamble, a final Week 9 tip that looks decent is a 2-team 6-point “ties reduce” pleaser at 5Dimes. For this please Ravens from +3.5 to -2.5, and Giants from +10 to +4. This wager pays 6 to 1 and I’m actually certain it is +EV though will still lose 80% of the time.
This concludes my 2011 NFL week 9 free picks post. As a reminder check back here each and every week for free NFL picks and strategy from myself, a well proven, time tested, professional sports bettor. I wish you the best of luck on all your 2011 NFL Week #9 predictions.