The 2011 NFL Regular Season is complete and those who followed my free picks finished the season up +11.62 units. Included in this is +0.36 unit net win on long shot wagers but the heart of the profit came from an impressive 40-25-4 (61.5%) record (for +11.26 units) on near coin flip bets. Keep in mind all these picks were provided 100% free and as has been the case each year I publish picks publicly, I absolutely crushed any record paid touts accomplished, and… this is one of the many reasons why TheSportsGeek.com is the #1 website for FREE sports picks.
New Record Keeping for Playoffs
As we now head to the playoffs I’ll be doing this a little different. Because playoff games are played one game at a time, many sports gamblers are looking for picks on each and every game. In order to accommodate I’ll give you my thoughts and a prediction for each playoff game whether I’m betting on them myself or not. For this reason playoff records need to be tracked separate from regular season as the two are entirely different beasts. So with an awesome 2011 season officially closed my record is reset to 0-0 and I’ll now get started fresh with 2012 Wild Card weekend free picks and predictions.
#6 Cincinnati Bengals @ #3 Houston Texans
This is familiar match as we just seen in play out in Cincinnati week 14 in a game I had picked the Bengals but lost due to late TJ Yates heroics that involved a final seconds TD to give the Texans a 20-19 victory. Since this time Houston dropped 3 straight games losing to Panthers, Colts and Titans, though the final game was with nothing on the line and TJ Yates sidelined for most of it as a precautionary measure due to a bruised shoulder. The two previously losses however there was plenty on the line as a #1 or #2 seed was still possible. Ultimately I’m not too high on how the Texans closed the season. The same however is true of the Bengals who did win the games they needed to win after the being upset late by the Texans, but failed to close the deal week 17 yet got into the playoffs as the result of Broncos, Raiders, and Jets all losing. Although I’m not high on either team, if the Bengals can plug up a few leaks and stop giving up big plays they’re very much a live underdog in this match. In a game that could go either way, I’m personally going to take the points.
#6 Detroit Lions @ #3 New Orleans Saints
The Detroit Lions only needed to beat the Green Bay Packers with no Aaron Rogers or have the Falcons lose to avoid playing this game. Matthew Stafford passed for 520 yards with 5 TDs and in the process became the fifth player in NFL history to eclipse 5,000 yards passing in a single season. Had they won the game this would have been certainly a headliner on all sports sites, but it goes unnoticed as another Matt (Flynn) who was a 7th round draft pick starting only his second game ever broke Packers’ records by passing for 480 yards and 6TD with just one interception while completing 31/44 passes in the process. Really, same story different day for the Lions! The failure of Detroit’s defence all season long has overshadowed what an amazing season it has been for their offensive stars, and this year they’ve had many. The point spread is steep however at -10.5 but the Saints have been playing well on all cylinders, have a well diverse offensive attack and a much improved defence. As a long time Lions fan I hate to say this, but I’m loving the 5Dimes alternate line on this match as it saves me a bit if my predictions is well off. So, I’m picking Saints -12 +110 @ 5Dimes.
#5 Atlanta Falcons @ #4 New York Giants
Here we are again… now in the playoffs and still not convinced the Atlanta Falcons are a contender. As down as I’ve been on the Giants as of late, though did say I’d pick them last week if I needed to and was correct, I like them a lot in this playoff matchup. Matt Ryan hasn’t done much in his career in big games, while the Giants have Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora back from an injury and certainly can put pressure on Ryan. The Giants also have playoff experience, strong coaching, and Eli Manning has proved he can win big games, which again is something Matt Ryan has yet to prove. Of course playoff matches can always go either way, but my pick in this one is Giants -3.
#5 Pittsburgh Steelers @ #4 Denver Broncos
This is a game between two struggling offenses and I’m not sure it will be any better in the conclusion of the 2012 NFL wild card round of the playoffs. The Steelers will be without RB Rashard Mendenhall due to his knee injury suffered last week, and this is a huge blow for reason that since the Ben Roethlisberger injury his performance has been quite poor. Over his past 10 quarters Big Ben has only a 58.3% completion rate and has been picked off 4 times while completing only a single TD pass. The Broncos are struggling on the passing side of the game too but if they can get out to an early lead do have clock killing came abilities, plus Tebow has dialled up help from God a few times to pull off big come backs which could be a factor if the game stays close. I still struggle to see a solid angle in this game, so if I did have to pick, I’m going to take advantage of the fact 5Dimes has the Broncos shaded to 9 points in what should be a low scoring game, and with that do a 2-team 8-point ties win teaser of Broncos +17 (ties win) and under 43.0 (ties win) for the same game at -158.