We head to week 12 of the NFL season, and with no BS, no record padding, nor posting lines not widely available, my free picks on point spreads, totals, and near even money teasers have gone 27-13-2 on the season, for a 67.5% win rate and +12.49 units of profit. Although I’ve been providing NFL winners at a high 50’s to low 60’s percent clip for a half-decade now, this season has been an incredible run and all the picks were provided 100% free here at TheSportsGeek.com. I have more picks for you here in this article, and I’ll also be back for the 8 weeks that follow this one with more free picks. With that said let me get you bets on the Thanksgiving football games first, then some additional ones for the Sunday games.
Thanksgiving Thursday Games
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Who have would have thought when the 2011 NFL schedule was released that the two Packers/Lions games scheduled for Thanksgiving and New Years Day would end up being two of the best match ups of the season? Whether you predicted this or not, the 10-0 Packers now have to get through the 7-3 Lions twice to keep their hopes at a perfect season alive; any slip ups and the 49ers are knocking at their door looking for the #1 seed. This is certainly one of the best games this week. I strongly believe the lines makers who opened this line at -5.5 / +5.5 got it correct. Considering right now Lions +7 -120 is available on Bodog’s sharp line profile (-115 for small bettors) I think this is an easy play.
Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys
Miami has been playing great as of a late, but I love the Cowboys in this match up. I’m going with a 2-team 6-point teaser at -110 @ Bodog. Of course I can hear the critics now saying “wait -7 isn’t wongable” and while they’re correct let’s quickly at the math. Right now Pinnacle has this games moneyline at +281 / -320. The implied probability of +281 is 26.25% and the implied probability of -320 is 76.19%. These total 102.44%. To remove the vig I take 76.19/102.44= 0.744 or otherwise stated as 74.4%. We’re teasing to -1 so if the chance of pushing on 1 is about 2%, we take half credit for this (the other 1% is in the bookmaker’s +1 line, 1% is in our -1 line) this leaves covering -1 a 73.4% probability which is -276 in American odds. In a 2-team teasers at -110, the odds we get on each team is -262, so IF the market is efficient, which it should be close to being, we have positive expected value teasing here. The second leg I am selecting is the Jets from -8 to -2. Currently Pinnacle has Jets -450 / Bills +385. The implied probability of -450 is 81.32% and the implied probability of +385 is 20.62%. These total 101.95%, so to remove vig 81.32/101.95= 79.8%. I now deduct the full 2% for a loss at -1 and half of 2.1% for push on -2 to see the odds market price for covering -2 is 77.7% which in American odds is -348. So in short I’m getting a combo bet where each team is -262, but the market odds are -276 and -348 for these teams. Making bets like this and managing your bankroll well is like printing money over the long term. This bet has a significant edge.
Free pick #2: Tease Cowboys to -1 and Jets to -2 @ Bodog (-110) *you’ll need to sign up at Bodog to place this bet*
San Francisco 49ers @ Baltimore Ravens
I took the home teams in the first two thanksgiving games; however I’m going the opposite way in the final game. I don’t have a ton of math to spew out on this one. The deal here is the 49ers still despite a 9-1 record have many critics while the Baltimore Ravens are perhaps the most inconsistent team in the NFL. Both teams are coming off short rest here, but the Ravens had more key matchup the week prior, where the 49ers were one of the biggest favourites in week 11 and handled their opponent with ease. Travel here kind of evens this out though. I’m still not convinced at this point the 49ers shouldn’t be favoured over the Ravens if this were to be played on a neutral field. This one will be close but that extra half point off 3 is generous which has me going 49ers.
NFL Week 12 Sunday Games
New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles
Note: it is important game to jump on this wager early. Due to sportsbooks being unsure if Michael Vick or Vince Young will be the QB for this one, some don’t have lines out yet. The few that do include Pinnacle Sports, 5Dimes and BetOnline which have the Patriots a -3 favourite. In this one I’m going Patriots all the way due to the Eagles inconsistency, the Patriots finally picking up some momentum, and the Eagles injury concerns.
5Dimes Line Shade Teasers
A theme in many of my past pick threads this season, was taking advantage of the way 5Dimes shades point spreads. I won’t rehash the boring math but instead will just give you my two teaser wagers at 5Dimes this week.
A small note here is that I’ve teased Jets to -2 in one pick and Bills to +17.5 in another. Both these wagers have positive expected value, but for anyone adverse to risk that doesn’t want to tease both sides of the same game, Free pick #6 would be the one to drop, as free pick #2 has the most value of all posted wagers this week. With all this said – good luck this week and be reminded I’ll be here at TheSportsGeek.com right until the conference championships posting free picks each and every week.