Hey Guys I’m back again for the weekly edition of the Power Plays. Now we take a look at the second round of the NFL playoffs, Divisional weekend. The first round of the playoffs came and went without to much drama as each home team won with a comfortable double digit win. I expect the complete opposite this weekend excluding the Patriots game versus the Texans. The other three games feature road quarterbacks who all have one thing in common and thats a Super Bowl title on their resume. Which means if you’re a gambling man, I wouldn’t advise betting on all the home teams this week. As always make sure youre following me on TWITTER for my latest updates, analysis, and now NBA plays. Lets get into the Divisional round Bauer Power Plays.
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ATL – Matt Ryan ($ 8300) – The Falcons are home favorites this week, taking on the Seattle Seahawks. The over/under for this game is currently set at 51.5, with the Falcons having a team total of 28. The Seattle defense continues to scare DFS players away from starting QBs and WRs against them, and the stats no longer back this up. In their last match up which was in Seattle, Matt Ryan torched the Seahawks secondary for 335 yards and three touchdowns. Seattle defense is now with out their Pro-bowl safety Earl Thomas which has left them susceptible to the big play. Matt Ryan threw 15 TDs this year on passes longer than 20 yards, and I expect them to test this weakness of the Seahawks secondary.
DAL – Dak Prescott ($ 7700) – Well this isnt a name I’d thought I’d be writing up in the second round of the playoffs, but here we are 4 months later with Dak leading the Cowboys to a number 1 seed and a bye week. The Cowboys take on the Green Packers in what Vegas has slated as the highest scoring game of the group with a total of 52. The Dak has been magnificent at home this year averaging 21.5 FD points per game, with 250 yards passing per game along with 25 running yards. The Cowboys rookie QB provides with a nice salary relief if youre looking to jam in Bell or Zeke, but also provides us 24-28 FD point upside and a solid floor of 16.
If you’re playing cash this weekend, I’m finding a way to jam in Bell and Zeke this week as they provide the highest floor of any player on the slate WRs included. They also make great tournament plays this week with their 30+ point ceiling, but you guys know this they’ve been smashing 2 and 3x value all year!
ATL – Davonta Freeman ($ 7600) ($ 5900 DK) – The Falcons at home this year averaged 35 PPG this season, and in those games Freeman averaged 19.5 FD PPG with an average of 18 touches and 4 targets. Freeman ended the season as the clear number one back out touching Coleman 60 – 39, and also caught everyone of his 15 targets. While the Seahawks are stingy against the run, Freeman carries GPP winning upside and is much cheaper than the big 2. Freeman is a phenomenal play on DK with an extremely discounted price and full point per reception scoring.
NE- LaGarrette Blount ($ 7300) – No player scored more touchdowns this season than the Patriots running back (18). The Patriots are in another great spot this weekend against the Texans as 16 point home favorites, which correlates positively for Blount. Blount averaged over 16 FD PPG at home this year, with a 1.4 TD average per game as well. In the previous meeting between these two team Blount had his second best game of the year with a 22.5 point performance with 105 yards rushing and 2 TDs.
*Cash Game Target* GB – Randall Cobb ($ 6500) – Im not in love with Cobb in tournaments this week as he will be high owned and will have a hard time hitting over 2.5x value without multiple touchdowns. But in cash I think he is a must play this week because I expect him to be owned over 55% this week in your 50/50’s and double ups, which makes him quite risky to fade in a contest that pays the top 50%. It is encouraging when you look at what Cobb did last time out against the Cowboys posting a stat line of 7 – 53 -1 TD.
*Cash Game Target* NE – Julian Edelman ($ 7000) – Another mid priced WR for your cash line up to allow you to fit the stud RBs. Julian Edelman is Tom Brady’s most trusted pass catcher this post season with Gronk going down earlier in the year. The Patriots are big home favorites which may scare people off of Edelman, but they do have a team implied total of 28 and will have to pass to achieve that total. Edelman has one of the highest floors on the slate scoring 10.5 FD or more in 9 straight, having 7 or more receptions in 9 of those.
*Tournament* DAL – Dez Bryant ($ 7600) – Dez Bryant makes for one of the most intriguing plays on the slate this weekend with ownership for the Cowboys going towards Zeke. This will surely leave Dez under owned in a great match up against the leaky secondary of the Packers. The Cowboys are -4.5 point favorites this week against the Packers, but could very easily find themselves trailing against the hottest player in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers. If that happens expect the Cowboys to lean heavily on their pro bowl WR, who scored 25 FD points in their final home game. The pricing on FD has him placed between two WR who had big games just last weekend, recency bias will drive the ownership down on Dez and up on Baldwin and Adams.
*Tournament* ATL – Taylor Gabriel ($ 5500) – Tyreke Hills cousin returns to the Falcons line up this week after missing the final game of the season. Kidding hes not really Hill’s cousin they both are just the fastest player on the field, and continually make big plays. Taylor Gabriel’s volatility is what makes him a perfect tournament play this weekend, his ownership will be low, his price, and his knack for making the big play. He has 5 TDS in his last 6 games and is consistently being targeted 4-7 times a game, so the volume is there.
GB – Jared Cook ($ 5400) – The Packers Tight end is finally healthy and has been much more involved in the passing game the past month. Cooks involvement in the passing game should increase this week due to the untimely injury to Jordy Nelson. Cooks targets per game the past four games are 8-5-8-9 and has gone for at least 48 yards 3 times in those games. The tight end choices arent great again this week unless you want to pay up for the as of late consistent Kelce, or take a flier on the volatile Jimmy Graham.
I dont need to tell you the safest defense this week is New England, who scored 18 FD points and shut out the Texans earlier this year.
Atlanta Falcons ($ 4300) – The Falcons have an underrated defense and special teams this season, and will go underrated in what could be a high scoring game. The Seahawks average 12 less points on the road than they do at home this season. The Falcons DST provided 5 TDs this season, and double digits in INTs and Fumbles.