Well, that was one regrettable week of daily fantasy football action. I’m not the only one who had a rough week, as many DFS sharks took to Twitter to vent their frustrations as much of the top NFL DFS options in week 10 completely face-planted.
While that was happening, both Mark Ingram and DeMarco Murray pieced together unfathomable 3-touchdown days and Case Keenum fired in four scores of his own. It was a completely backwards week for daily fantasy football, to say the least.
This is what we’ve come to expect in NFL DFS circles, however. Some weeks the logic and data align and you can build a team that can compete, and other weeks nothing breaks right. Here’s to hoping week 11 rests on a little more logic as we build a daily fantasy football lineup that can compte in FanDuel GPPs:
QB: Tom Brady – New England Patriots ($8.6k)
Compared to what his price has looked like at different points this year, we actually get Brady at a mild discount this week. He’s a compelling pivot off of Carson Wentz, who will be on the road against the Cowboys. That’s not enough reason to get you off of Wentz, but Brady might end up being lower owned and gets a better matchup by the numbers.
Brady prepares to battle the Raiders, who have not resembled an elite defense in 2017. Oakland comes in ranking just 30th against opposing passers over the last four weeks and after Brady put up 22 fantasy points against the Denver Broncos, his ceiling is understandably high.
RB: Jamaal Williams – Green Bay Packers ($5.6k)
I don’t see a way around Williams this week, especially if both Aaron Jones (knee) and Ty Montgomery (ribs) are out or limited. Williams has a favorable matchup on paper, as he runs hard and will be at home against a surprisingly bad Baltimore run defense.
Williams gained confidence with 20 carries for 67 yards last week and should be put to work early and often against a Ravens defense that ranks 21st against running backs in 2017. They’ve been better over the last few weeks, but they’re on the road and Green Bay is going to need to run the ball in this one.
We’re not expecting the world in this matchup, but if Williams can get 60+ yards and a score at this price, that’s a big win.
RB: Kareem Hunt – Kansas City Chiefs ($8.6k)
On a slate with no Le’Veon Bell and Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette both facing difficult matchups, I’m very high on Hunt. I like Kansas City’s offense as a whole, as they go up against a dying Giants team. New York just lost to the 49ers of all teams and seems to have completely given up. That, and they come in ranking 26th against running backs over the last four weeks.
The beauty here is it’s possible Hunt could still float somewhat under the radar. Not only are there arguably six viable high-end rushers on the main slate, but Hunt hasn’t been an elite producer lately. In fact, he’s been held under 9 fantasy points in each of his last two games and hasn’t even scored a touchdown since week three.
All of that could lower his ownership, but there is something to be said for a star player that is in a great spot and is flat out due. For me, that’s Hunt on a day where Kansas City’s offense should wreck.
WR: Sterling Shepard – New York Giants ($6.5k)
I have no issue with paying down closer to the intermediate level at wide receiver this week, as some of the best options are off the board and/or have difficult matchups. Shepard is one cheap option that is in play, as he has a massive role and will face a Chiefs secondary that is dead last on the year at stopping wide receivers.
Shepard busted out with 11 catches for 142 yards last week and has now seen 9+ target in two straight games. New York has a solid matchup through the air and probably will be playing from behind all day. Due to the matchup and expected game flow, Shepard has the look of one of the top week 11 daily fantasy football value picks.
WR: Brandin Cooks – New England Patriots ($7.6k)
This feels like a Brandin Cooks week. He’s been relatively quite for the Pats, but he’s still been stable with 10+ fantasy points in 6 of his 9 contests. He has a dream matchup against Oakland, which ranks 27th against wide receivers over the last four weeks.
I like any wide receiver in this game, but speed kills and Cooks has a matchup he could destroy. We’re using Brady, too, so it makes sense to stack him with at least one New England receiver. Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are also in play, but I find myself liking Cooks in this one.
WR: Mike Wallace – Baltimore Ravens ($5.7k)
I like Green Bay’s defense as a whole this week. They got some confidence back after winning last week, they’re at home and they’ll be facing a weak Ravens offense. Baltimore is 18th in scoring, 30th in total offense and dead last in passing.
On paper, this is an amazing matchup for Green Bay, but the Packers are still atrocious at keeping wide receivers contained. Mike Wallace is not a high volume guy, but against a Green Bay secondary that gave up nearly 300 yards to Mitchell Trubisky and ranks 30th against wide receivers, one has to love his upside.
This is a risk, but this is also a GPP team and it actually makes a lot of sense. Wallace also scored last week and posted a massive 133-yard outing against the Raiders the last time he had a matchup this tasty.
TE: Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs ($7.5k)
Rob Gronkowski is the guy most will want this week, but we can save $700 and get Kelce, who should be just as good. Kelce has been a huge piece to Kansas City’s offensive puzzle in 2017 and will come in hot with 11+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games.
The matchup is where we drool, however. The Giants have given up on head coach Ben McAdoo and simply aren’t even trying on defense anymore. Kelce goes up against a Giants defense that ranks dead last on the year against tight ends and is also ranked 32nd against opposing quarterbacks. Week 11 could provide a huge day for Chiefs offensive players.
K: Justin Tucker – Baltimore Ravens ($4.9k)
There are a lot of options at kicker this week, but I’ll opt to save a couple hundred bucks and use Tucker, who should be plenty busy against a weak Packers defense. Green Bay was more of the bend-but-don’t-break variety last week, so even if they’re that good, Tucker should respond with a few field goals.
The Ravens don’t have a reliable offense, but that actually helps us in this setting. Tucker, meanwhile, has been rock solid with 9+ fantasy points in five consecutive outings. He’s likely to make it six straight in week 11.
DEF: Arizona Cardinals ($4.6k)
There is hesitance in backing Arizona, as this is a talented defense but one that has performed well below expectations. That being said, they don’t cost an arm and a leg like most team defense this week and they’re facing the statue that is Tom Savage.
Savage has turned the ball over 7 times in three starts this year – all tough losses for the Texans. The immobile passer has also taken way too many sacks, with the Jags, Colts and Rams totaling a staggering 15 sacks. With Savage set to start again this week, the Cardinals look like one of the best value defenses on the board.