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I’m back again for another year of NFL DFS, and I couldn’t be more excited that week one is just days away. I will be providing content each and every week, from now until the end of NFL post season. Every Tuesday or Wednesday morning I will be publishing my plays for the upcoming week, and then on Thursday nights I will be releasing another article talking about my favorite sleepers and low owned GPP stacks. I would also like to maybe explore doing a live Periscope every Sunday morning to talk about last minute adjustments and offer any last minute strategies for the upcoming games.
I expect this year to be even more special then my debut year, in all aspects but especially in writing and talking on the radio about NFL DFS. As you guys can see the Bauer Power Plays column has a new home this year at the Sports Geek, and I’m very excited to be working along side with the DFS guru Kevin. Kevin has taken me under his wing the past few months and allowed me to work and learn under him while writing NFL and NBA DFS articles for his blog. But enough of the chit chat lets get down to the Plays.
Catch me every Wednesday night between 8-10PM (EST) on the NFL Fantasy channel for Sirius XM radio. Follow me on twitter for updates and additional plays @BauerPowerPlays
Derek Carr ($7,700) – Just because its a new year doesn’t mean were going to stop picking on the Saints porous defense. Last season at home the Saints defense surrendered nearly 300 yards and 3 passing TDs per game to opponents. The Raiders and Derek Carr who averaged 2TDs last season and is reasonably priced on FD, are in a great spot to take advantage of the big Vegas total (51), and a soft Saints secondary. Also, only twice did the Saints manage to keep a QB from scoring multiple touchdowns.
Dak Prescott ($5,000) – The Chalk play of the week, at 5k on Fanduel you cant go wrong playing Dak this week. If Fanduel were to come out with pricing now he would be priced at least a $1000 more, so lets take the savings when we can. The match-up is also a plus match up for the Cowboys who are at home with a team implied total of 24 points. Dak has also built a repertoire with his star WR Dez Bryant who he threw 3TDs to in the preseason, factor that in along with the fact that he ran for 41 touchdowns in college and this play has massive 4 – 5x value potential on his low salary.
*Bonus* Aaron Rodgers – Jordy Nelson – Jared Cook Stack – This game has the potential to have the highest total of the week, and with the uncertainty of Jordy Nelson for week one it is almost a lock for contrarian / low ownership stack with massive upside.
Lamar Miller ($7,700) – The man everyone has been raving about all Pre-season, this Sunday we will get to see if the hype was warranted. The Texans and Lamar Miller are in a great spot at home and favored by 5.5 points against the Bears. Last year the Bears surrendered just under 100 yards per game, but allowed the 5 catches to opposing teams running backs. Miller averaged over 5 YPC last year, and is now playing behind one the best offensive lines in the league, and against a defense that has to account for Hopkins on every play. Fire up Miller in all formats.
Latavius Murray ($6,600) – I promise this isn’t a homer pick to my alma mater of UCF. Its just the Raiders happen to play one the historically bad defenses in NFL history in week one, along with Murray being one of the only cowbell backs left that can do it all. The Saints allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game, and over 5.5 receptions last year against opposing running backs. I love the value Murray gives us, and could easily see him hitting 3x value if he can find the end zone.
Murray will be high owned this Sunday, which makes him a solid cash play.
Value – Spencer Ware (5,400) – This all comes down to the health of Charles, Ware is almost a must start in all cash games if Charles is inactive. Last year against the Chargers Ware ran for 96 yards and two touchdowns, on 11 carries. The Chiefs are touchdown favorites and at home, which positively correlates to Spencer Ware.
Julio Jones ($9,000) – If I’m spending up this week at WR its on Julio Jones who faces a Tampa Bay secondary that he torched last year in 2 games accumulating over 200 yards, 20 catches and 1 TD. The Buccaneers defense was quietly in the bottom 10 when facing the pass last year allowing big plays week in and week out. The Falcons are at home where Matt Ryan seems to play much better, I expect this game to hit the over which is set right now at 47.5.
Amari Cooper ($7,100) – Have you seen a trend with my picks yet? My favorite cash line up stack of the week is Cooper and Carr stack, against the saints defense. I think I’ve touched on this game enough for you to know why I like this play.
Tournament Special – Sammy Watkins (7,300) – There are multiple reasons as to why Watkins is listed under tournaments this week. One is his pricing being priced near Amari Cooper against the Saints will have the public rostering Cooper over Watkins, reason number 2 were not sure how ready that foot, which nagged him all of season. Tyrod and Watkins developed quite the chemistry last year, and against a Ravens defense that allowed the fifth most FD points to WRs this play screams upside.
Donte Moncrief ($6,200) – The reason Moncrief his in the tournament section is his volatility, great price point, emerging talent, and positively correlated game flow. The Lions vs Colts game has one highest totals of the Week one slate at 49 points. Moncrief could emerge this year as the Lucks #1 target and getting the savings of $600 from Hilton who could be shadowed by one of the highest graded cornerbacks last year in Slay is all I need to convince me to roster Moncrief over Hilton.
Value – Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,500) – Where will all of Calvin Johnsons 150 targets from last year go? Hold on is one of the best WR of my generations retired at the ripe age of 30? Come on Calvin you have Jim Bob Cooter now at the helm. Speaking of him Stafford was a top 6 fantasy QB last year once Jim Bob took over the play calling for Lions. Marvin Jones recorded over 100 yards in 3 preseason games this year. Which is nothing to write home about, but it shows chemistry. The Colts are without Vontae Davis, which means there should plenty of opportunity for Marvin Jones who is priced nearly $2000 cheaper than Golden Tate.
Colby Fleener ($5,400) – Insert Tight end playing with Drew Brees. You can tell Brees missed having a capable tight end last year and it showed on the field and in their disappointing record. Fleener joins of the most tight end friendly offenses created by Sean Payton, and with a QB who looks to the tight maybe more than Tom Brady looks for Gronk. The raiders were in the bottom 5 in defending the tight end last year, and if this game is going to be a shootout the Saints have to score too right? I love Fleener in this spot especially with his friendly price.
Tournament Special – Jared Cook ($ 5,300) – Finally has a capable QB, scored a phenomenal touchdown in his last preseason game. Ton of upside. Wouldnt be suprised for a Cook line of 6-68-2 with the best QB in the league throwing him the ball, in what could be a shootout.
Seattle ($5,000) – Seattle at home, against an East Coast team. Theres not much more to say then that.
Houston ($4,900) – I love the stack of Lamar Miller with Houston D this week. The bears have an implied total of under 20, which is point total we look for when selecting a defense. Oh and JJ Watt is playing.
Value – LA Rams ($4,500) – One thing you can count on this year in the NFL is the Rams getting a ton of sacks with Aaron Donald, and Robert Quinn. The 49ers will struggle to score this year, and Blaine is known to turn the ball over. Also the 49ers only scored 25 in two games against the Rams last year.