Hey Guys I’m back again for the weekly edition of the Power Plays. This week we take a look at the Week 11 slate in the NFL. It was another profitable week here at the Power Plays, especially if you were able to avoid the Bears v Bucs game which really brought down the plays last week. That game was one that featured two pass happy offenses that struggle to run the ball, but both WR1’s struggled. Evans, Jeffery and Miller all scored in the single digits and hurt a lot of DFS line ups last weekend.
Let’s focus on the fantasy goodness from last week, and that starts at the QB position. Big Ben continues to crush projections and those that choose to fade him. He had a massive game and scored 28.4 FD points, and connected with AB for a late touchdown on the Dan Marino fake spike. That late TD pushed what was already a big day for AB over the top and allowed him to be the highest scoring WR of the week with 27.4 points. Mariota continues to put up massive games hitting over 3x his salary last week scoring 28.6 points. Mariota has four touchdowns in 7 of his first 22 starts, I know one group of fans that upset the Bucs who passed on him for Winston. David Johnson the chalk play of week came through with 2TDs and 24.6 FD points. A few other guys who hit right above or slightly under 2x value were Melvin Gordon, Sproles, Jordan Matthews, and Julian Edelman. This upcoming week we have a lot of expensive players on the slate, so I’ll be giving a few extra value plays this week so you can roster the studs. As always lets keep the good times rolling and have another big week.
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IND – Andrew Luck ($ 8100) – The Vegas total is set as the highest scoring game of the week with a healthy total of 52, and the Colts have an implied total of 28. Luck is the 6th priced QB on FD, which gives us a nice savings in what could be a shootout of a game. The last time these two teams met Luck threw for 353 yards and 3 TDs, for 27.9 FD points. The Titans allowed 43 points in their last road game, and are giving up 19+ FD points to opposing QBs this season.
WASH – Kirk Cousins ($ 7600) – The Vegas total is set at 50.5 and the Redskins have a team implied total of 27. Kirk is priced right in the middle of the QB’s this week on FD. The match-up couldn’t be more ideal this week going against a reeling Packers defense who has surrendered 30+ points in 3 straight games. The Redskins are averaging 407 YPG on offense and Kirk Cousins in the last 4 weeks is averaging over 20 FD points per game. Until the Packers right the ship on defense we’ll continue to target them in situations like this.
*Tournament Target* SEA – Russell Wilson ($ 7400) – The Vegas odds makers don’t have this game plugged as one of the highest with just a 44.5 point total. But with the struggling running game and the team implied total of 25.5 for the Seahawks this spells upside for Wilson. I think the masses will look at this game and want to avoid because of the way the Eagles defense has played this year, but the general public wont know the Eagles have given up 24.5 points on the road this season. Wilson finally looks healthy, and is showing a rapport with Baldwin and Jimmy Graham.
PITT – Leveon Bell ($ 9100) – You’ll have to pay a premium price to get him, but he’s worth it this week as he goes against the Browns. The Browns cant stop anyone on defense this year allowing 129 and 26+ FD points to opposing running backs. The Steelers are big favorites this week -8, with a team total of 28.5 which means there will be a lot of scoring on Sunday afternoon. Leveon Bell has shown a floor of 16 FD points this year, scoring under that just once, and is seeing an incredible amount of targets to the tune of 9.3 targets per game.
NE – Lagarrette Blount ($ 7300) – I like Blunt much more on FD where pass catching backs are devalued because of the .5 PPR scoring system. Blount gets a great match up this week against the 49ers who are giving up 160+ yards and the most FD points to running backs per game. Blount has scored in every game this season that Brady has started, and has the most rushing TDs through the first 9 games since MJD in 2009.
DET – Theo Riddick ($ 6700) – He is one of my absolute favorite plays on DK this week, as he has caught at least 4 receptions in 6 out of the 7 games hes played this season. Riddick is now the lead back in an offense that doesn’t really have a back-up, I expect this game to be a bit of a shootout and since Riddick is so heavily involved in the passing game he makes for a great play.
PITT – Antonio Brown ($ 8900) – AB got back to his ways last week posting a huge line against a defense that really tried to limit him as much as they could. Like I mentioned above the Steelers have a huge implied team total, and are playing a team that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in every game this season. AB is averaging 11+ targets and over 17 FD points per game and is now facing the Browns who are ranked 29th in DVOA against WR1’s.
JAX – Allen Robinson ($ 7300) – The 5th most targeted WR in the NFL should not be priced as the 11th most expensive WR any week, especially a week when they visit the leaky Lions defense. The Lions are allowing over 275 passing yards and 2+ TDS to opposing QBs per game this season. We all know Bortles will over target Robinson, and is his favorite target inside the redzone
IND – TY Hilton ($ 7900) – Hilton has been one of the most consistent WR week in and week out averaging over 14 FD points per game, which puts him 9th among all WRs. The titans struggle against the pass, and the last time these two teams met TY Hilton went off for a line of 7-133-1 TD.
*Tournament Target* DET – Golden Tate ($ 6600) – I expect Jalen Ramsey to shadow Marvin Jones JR, which leaves Golden Tate as the go to WR on each and every play. The reason he is a tournament target is his TD upside is limited, even though he scored the game winning touchdown against the Vikings. Tate has out targeted Jones 43-23 over the last 4 weeks. In those weeks Tate has been targeted under 10 just once, and scored less than 12 just once as well.
*Tournament Target* GB – Randall Cobb ($ 6500) – I really have loved Jordy Nelson the last few weeks, but he gets the unfortunate match-up with Josh Norman who has played great this year. Cobb will go under owned this week in what is a great match up for a team that has to throw 45+ times a game. Cobb is finally a full go, and i expect him to see 10+ targets with Jordy being covered by Norman.
TENN – Delanie Walker ($ 6400) – The biggest recipient along with Rishard Matthews from Mariota’s pro bowl level play is Walker. Delanie has scored 12+ FD points and a touchdown in 3 of his last 4. He now gets another great match up against the Colts, who just allowed him to go for 7-84-1TD in their last match up one month ago. The Colts are allowing 6+ catches and 70+ yards a game to opposing tight ends.
CHI – Zach Miller ($ 5500) – Were going back to Miller this week, even though he let us down last week. But we don’t hold grudges here at the Bauer Power Plays, we look at match ups and spots. The Giants are heavy favorites, and Alshon Jeffery is suspended for the next 4 games. This means more passing and more targets for Miller who is already seeing almost 7 a game.
New York Giants ($ 4800) – The Giants get the visiting Bears who are reeling for play makers on offense, with Jeffery getting suspended, Jordan Howard and Kyle Long getting injured. I love playing Defenses at home against Cutler who’s I don’t care level is at an all-time high.