Hey Guys I’m back again for the weekly edition of the Power Plays. Now we take a look at the Week 16 slate in the NFL. I cant believe this weekend is Christmas and I’m even more shocked that we only have 2 more weeks of the NFL regular season. I hope you trailed a majority of the plays last week, as we were only let down in a few spots. Lesean McCoy headlined are week with a monster performance and was on every major tournament winning team with a jaw dropping 30 point performance. Following the stellar play of McCoy was Jordan Howard with a solid performance of his own giving us 19.3 points at just $6,600. OBJ, Crabtree, and JJ Nelson all found the end zone along with Kaepernick and the Bills defense putting up nice point totals. Make sure to follow me on TWITTER as I continue to give out plays and analysis through out the week. Lets get into the week 16 Bauer Power Plays!
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NO – Drew Brees ($ 8500) – This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone the Saints offense was clicking on all cylinders last week. Brees torched the Cardinals for 389 yards and 4TDs, and that was on the road. Brees is averaging 25 FD points, 352 yards and nearly 3 TDs at home this season. The Saints have a great match up this week against the Bucs who are ranked 26th in team DVOA, who struggle on the road allowing Dak to complete 32-36 passes last week.
IND – Andrew Luck ($ 8300) – You know I love focusing the high Vegas totals, and this game is the highest of the week, set at 53. Luck has been on an absolute tear lately averaging the highest PPG through the last 4 weeks with 22.25. The Colts QB has been very reliable on the road this year as well posting scores of 29.7, 14.7, 27.8 and 24.3. I expect this game to shootout unlike the Raiders and Chargers game of last week.
The last few weeks we’ve been touching on the mid-priced running backs because the top 4 backs in the NFL right now are just obvious plays. This week we’ll continue that trend, but I’ll rank the big 4 as it stands today. 1. Zeke 2. Shady 3. Bell. 4. DJ
CHI – Jordan Howard ($ 7200) – Jordan Howard is coming into week 16 playing the best football of his life, and makes consecutive appearances in the Power Plays. Howard has 99 yards or more in 7 straight games, double digit FD points in 5 straight and 9 targets in the last 2 games. The Bears are continuing to rely on the run with Matt Barkley taking over the QB duties. The Redskins are allowing 4.5 YPC, which ranks them 4th worst in the NFL.
GB – Ty Montgomery ($ 6300) – This was a play that came across the DFS industry Sunday morning, when you saw Starks was inactive and they didn’t call up another back. Montgomery is always a risky play because of his sickle cell trait, but last week in temperatures around 0 degrees he saw 51 of the 60 offensive snaps. He turned those 51 snaps into 18 touches for 160 + yards and 2 TDs. If Starks is unavailable to play this week, and Michael is the only back up running back, Montgomery becomes a must play in cash with his severely depressed price.
*Tournament Target* STL – Todd Gurley ($ 7900) – Well the pricing staff at both DK and FD must have realize the 49ers have been in the giving spirit all season to opposing running backs. The 49ers are allowing over 5.1 YPC and a league worst (or best if you’re Gurley owner) 22 TDs. Gurley has seen an 80%+ snap count the last two weeks, and is coming off 10 days of rest. If he cant get going here, did we all over hype his talent coming into this season.
IND – TY Hilton ( $ 7600) – If you’ve been following me this year you know TY Hilton is a guy I just love week in and week out for a multitude of reasons. TY leads the league in plays of 20 yards or more with 25 of them, and the Raiders have allowed 54 plays of 20 yards or more this season. TY is still the target monster he was earlier in the with 30 in his last 3 games.
OAK – Michael Crabtree ($ 6200) – I just don’t get it, they continue to have the reliable Crabtree priced too low. Crabtree is this years Eric Decker (well not quite) but he has 10 games with 10+ FD points while only scoring in single digits 4 times. Crabtree has seen 49 targets over the past 5 weeks, 17 more than Amari Cooper. I touched on this earlier, I expect this game to have be in the high 20’s or low 30’s for both teams which means there will be fantasy production from every where.
DET – Golden Tate ($ 6000) – The exposure to Golden Tate this week depends on the availability of Riddick. In the last 3 games where Riddick missed 2, and was sidelined mid game against the Saints. Tate has seen 34 targets turning that into 22 catches for 300+ yards. The Cowboys are struggling with slot wide receivers as we saw with the big TD catch from Humphries.
*Tournament Targets* – JAX – Allen Robinson ($ 5600) – DO NOT LOOK AT HIS RECENT GAME LOG! This play is about volume, price, ownership % and the match up. Robinson in the last 5 weeks is playing over 95% of the snaps, seeing 6+ targets but doesn’t have over 40 yards in any of those games. Well here come the oh so generous Titans who gave up 316 and 3 TDs to Matt Barkley just a few weeks ago. The Titans have given up 16 TDs to WRs this year.
*Tournament Target* NO – Michael Thomas ($ 6900) – When the DFS players go to zig we will zag this week with Michael Thomas as our primary receiver to stack with Brees. Cooks put on a show last week, that will drive ownership of Michael Thomas down, who himself had a very nice game catching 7 balls for 52 yards and TD against the Cardinals. BEWARE of chasing the Cooks points this week. Cooks has 3 games over 27 FD points, but 4 games under 5. While Thomas has only 1 game under 5.
TB – Cameron Brate ($ 5600) – You mean to tell me were gonna stack the Bucs v Saints game? Of course we are its at the Coors field of the NFL. Brate has been a monster as of late seeing 5 plus targets in 4 straights, and scoring a TD in 5 out of his last 8.
*Mike Dempsey Insider Play* SD – Antonio Gates ($ 5400) – How tilting was it seeing Hunter Henry score that TD last week? This Chargers offense just hasn’t been the same the last two weeks without Gordon but now they get the remedy every offense needs with a visit to the Browns. The Browns are allowing the most FD points to opposing Tight Ends with over 14 a game, along with 6 receptions, 60+ yards and almost a TD per game. Give me Gates this week with the big narrative factor.
Kansas City Chiefs ($ 4700) – The Chiefs are playing the offensively challenged broncos who have scored a total of 13 points in the past two games. The Chiefs have been one of the best defenses at home this week, and have on the best return men in the game with Tyreke ‘The Freak” Hill. The Chiefs have scored double digit fantasy points in 5 out of there last 7 home games.