Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts Prop Picks – NFL Week 11

Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts Prop Picks – NFL Week 11

The Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts will meet in the feature matchup in the afternoon window on Sunday for Week 11. This is an interesting matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium. We have one of the most underrated defenses in the league trying to slow down Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are coming off a tighter win than many people imagined.

They defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 24-20, in a game that almost developed into an upset. The Packers didn’t look very interested, but they were able to get away with it and still added a win to their total. They’re up to seven wins on the season and lead the NFC North with a record of 7-2.

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There isn’t any competition to speak of in the division. The Bears are within striking distance at 5-5, but I’m just not overly convinced there is going to be a comeback. Nick Foles isn’t it for the Bears. They might as well throw the younger quarterback out there, Mitch Trubisky, and hope for the best.

In any event, if the Packers end up blowing this lead in the NFC North it would make for one epic collapse. The rest of the division had an opportunity earlier in the season when the Packers were banged up. Their wide receiver depth was riddled with holes, especially without Davante Adams in the starting lineup. Adams suffered an ankle injury recently, but he is expected to play without any setbacks. Aaron Rodgers is going to be thrilled to have Adams in the lineup against the Colts.

The Colts’ defense has been one of the better units in the NFL. They are fourth in the NFL with 19.7 points conceded per game. The Colts are also first with 290.4 yards allowed. They’ve done a nice job containing a couple of really good offenses recently. It didn’t result in a win, but holding Lamar Jackson and the Ravens was good for the defense. The Colts followed up the following week to beat the Titans, 34-17. This should be a good one between offense and defense. Head below for our free Packers vs. Colts props for November 22, 2020.

Aaron Jones Receptions

Over 3.5
-135
Under 3.5
+104

Aaron Jones missed some time for the Packers, but he’s back and looks healthy on the field. Jones returned against the San Francisco 49ers on November 5. He was supposed to only get his feet wet coming off an injury, but Jones developed into the focal point of the offense in that game.

Aaron Rodgers was without a doubt excited to have him back on the field. He’s one of the more underrated running backs in the NFL and certainly plays a big role for the Packers. That goes for running the football and being used as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Jones is just as good of a receiver as he is a running back.

No, he isn’t big enough to line up outside and make an impact, but he’s one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL. Not on the same level as Alvin Kamara, though Jones is in a group closely behind Kamara. Upon returning from injury, Jones caught 5 receptions for 21 yards. He played a bigger role last week, as Jones gained 49 yards on 5 receptions against the Jaguars.

Jones has made at least 4 receptions in five of seven outings this season. He’s gained a total of 231 yards and 28 receptions through his seven games on the field in 2020. Against a solid defense like the Colts, expect to see Rodgers check down often to Jones out of the backfield. He should be able to record at least 4 receptions on Sunday.

The Bet
OVER 3.5

Philip Rivers Pass Completions

Over 24.5
-114
Under 24.5
-114

Philip Rivers has been more than adequate for the Colts this season. He might have lost some mustard on his passes and the arm stretch isn’t quite as strong as it was when he was younger, but the Colts made a good decision in signing him.

Rivers has passed for 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions with 68.69% completions. Those numbers don’t jump off the page at anyone, but with the Colts’ defense, Rivers isn’t asked to do anything amazing. He has continually gotten better this season as well.

Rivers is looking more comfortable with each passing week in the Colts’ offense. Through his first five games, Rivers connected for 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Since then, he’s passed for 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Great news for the Colts, especially with the strong defense that they have to fall back on to give Rivers some help.

He’s coming off a steady performance against the Tennessee Titans, having thrown for 308 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Rivers made 39 attempts passing and he completed 29 passes. In three of his previous four outings, he’s completed at least 25 passes. The Colts have a strong defense, but still expect Rodgers to put a lot of pressure on them. Rivers will have to be called on often in this one. This prop should get OVER the total.

The Bet
OVER 24.5

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards

Over 6.5
-114
Under 6.5
-114

Aaron Rodgers will have to be on his toes against a talented defense on Sunday afternoon. The Colts will attack defensively, and is going to make life tough for the Packers’ offense. Note that the Colts are second in the NFL with 198.7 passing yards conceded per game. They are going to make Rodgers work for this game. When he can’t find a receiver, and things are breaking down in the pocket, Rodgers is smart enough to run for what he can get. I think the Colts are going to force Rodgers into this situation more than a couple of times.

That should force into the scramble drill to get any yards he can out of the plays. Rodgers definitely isn’t a burner with his legs, but he’s crafty enough to make it work at times. He’s gained at least 7 yards in five of nine games this season. Against a defense in the Colts that will pressure him, he likely nets around 10 yards rushing at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Bet
OVER 6.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.