Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Pick – Week 4 October 3

Following a thrilling comeback victory last week on Sunday Night Football, the 2-1 Green Bay Packers seem to have righted the ship and will now host a Steelers team going in the wrong direction Sunday afternoon.

Pittsburgh has looked porous on defense, and old and exposed when on the ball. Big Ben Roethlsberger’s best football days are clearly behind him, and it’s tough to see any sort of renaissance as the season progresses.

That is all welcome news for Green Bay, who have quickly put Week 1’s dismal showing to the Saints in the rear-view mirror. They outplayed the 49ers last week in San Francisco, securing a dramatic last-second victory off an impressive drive from Aaron Rodgers.

This week the Packers will look to extend their lead in a tightly packed NFC North division, while the Steelers will look to stay afloat. It’s a tale of two squads trending in vastly different directions right now. Will we see a change of course? Read on beneath for current live odds, betting trends, data, and analysis. Enjoy the game!

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers Live Odds & Betting History

*These odds are provided by


  • Pittsburgh Steelers +6 (-110)
  • Green Bay Packers -6 (-110)

  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+225)
  • Green Bay Packers (-265)
Total Points:

  • Over 44.5 (-105)
  • Under 44.5 (-115)
Overall Record 1-2-0 2-1-0
ATS Record 1-2-0 2-1-0
Home/Away Record 1-0-0 1-0-0
Points Per Game 16.7 22.7
Points Against Per Game 22.0 27.7
Passing Yards Per Game 255.3 222.0
Rushing Yards Per Game 53.0 79.3

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction:

Though Pittsburgh went out this past NFL Draft and invested a high pick in a talented running back in Najee Harris, it’s a moot point if they can’t get a push up front. After offensive line issues from last season, they’re back once again in 2021. They can’t protect and can’t open lanes right now, and it’s heavily stalling an offense that has some potent pieces.

Making matters worse is that Ben Roethlisberger has been brutal through three games. He’s clearly past his prime, but he’s making things difficult right now on this Pittsburgh offense. The Steelers will also be without Chase Claypool on Sunday, which doesn’t bode well for keeping the chains moving.

The Packers boast a stellar secondary that will take away key options downfield, while one would expect Green Bay’s defensive line to be able to bully the Steelers’ O-Line and hound Big Ben from the pocket. Expect another stagnant showing from the black and yellow here in Week 4.

The offensive line isn’t the only line of scrimmage where the Steelers are depleted. They’ve also lost key pieces along their defensive line, which will only increase Aaron Rodgers’ confidence when dropping back.

Pittsburgh is down Stephon Tuitt, while TJ Watt is clearly playing at less than 100%. Though Green Bay has had some blocking issues of their own – they should be able to keep Pittsburgh out of their backfield. The Steelers have conceded tons of ground yardage to date, and Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should be able to keep the chains moving, the clock running, and open things up for Rodgers through the air.

The Steelers have a tendency to bounce back, especially under Mike Tomlin – but you get the sense that this is a fading roster that won’t have answers for the skills of Green Bay at Lambeau.


Steelers vs. Packers Trends To Know:

  • Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
  • Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
  • Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
  • Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games following a ATS win.


It’s hard to see where the Steelers can generate offense from, and where they can get stops from against Green Bay. It screams ‘bad matchup’ for Mike Tomlin’s aging group, and the Packers’ skill should win out convincingly.  Despite the lengthy travel at play here, Green Bay remains the more talented group and should cover the spread here in Week 4.

My Pick
Packers -6
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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