Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick – NFL Week 6

The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are set for kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon in the early time slot. The Texans are coming off a hard-fought loss against the New England Patriots at home last week.

All you can ask for from the Texans is to battle hard because this is a roster void of talent. The Texans are off to a 1-4 start with a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars to open the season, 37-21, but have pulled off four straight losses following that win in Houston.

Their most humiliating loss was a 40-0 final versus the Buffalo Bills two weeks back. The Patriots slept walk at NRG Stadium and still found a way to leave Houston with a 25-22 win. Prior to the loss against the Bills, they weren’t close against the Panthers in a 24-9 defeat.

The entire offseason for the Texans was filled with noise. Deshaun Watson wanted out, and then he was accused of sexual assault by multiple women. Did you hear much talk about actual football? I did and it was how the Texans were going to finish with the worst record in the NFL.

They were the most bet on team to have the worst record in the league. People might have fallen in love with Trevor Lawrence just a bit too much because the Jaguars have looked the worst in a sea of some bad teams. At least the Texans are trying with a third-round rookie.

The Stanford product has filled in nicely for veteran Tyrod Taylor. Taylor has had some terrible luck in his career. After a team doctor punctured his lung, Taylor has suffered a hamstring injury. He completed one full game before the injury bug hit him again.

Mills has been playing well enough in his place, though head coach David Culley has indicated that once Taylor is healthy to play, he will take the starting duties over again. Taylor just can’t keep chasing starting jobs around the league. Every time he gets there an injury comes up.

At least he has word from the Texans that he will start, unlike when Justin Herbert jumped on the opportunity and kept Taylor on the bench with the Chargers. Mills gets the start against a Colts team coming off a crushing loss in Baltimore last week. Head below for our free Texans vs. Colts pick on October 17, 2021.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Houston Texans +10 (-110) +360 Over 43 (-115)
Indianapolis Colts -10 (-110) -450 Under 43 (-105)
Team Data Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts
Overall Record 1-4 1-4
ATS Record 3-2-0 3-2-0
Away/Home Record 0-2 1-2
ATS Away/Home 1-1-0 1-1-0
Points Per Game 17.8 21.6
Points Against Per Game 28.2 25.6
Passing Yards Per Game 202.8 249.2
Rushing Yards Per Game 79.8 114.2

Texans vs. Colts Prediction:

The Texans put a lot into their game against the Patriots last week. They put a lot of effort into that one and still came up with a 25-22 loss. It was a sloppy performance from the Patriots that had them overlooking their opponent and head to the Cowboys.

Davis Mills has passed for 669 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions on 61.5% completions. After an ugly outing against the Bills with 87 yards and 4 interceptions, Mills looked more comfortable at home versus the Patriots. It’s back on the road for Mills and the Texans against a fairly solid Indi defense.

The Colts have allowed 369.2 yards and 25.6 points per game. There’s nothing special about that, but look at their schedule. They’ve had the Seahawks, Rams, Rams, Titans, and Ravens on their plate already. With that in mind, the defense has held up as best as it could. A matchup against the Texans’ offense should help their numbers.

Houston is 29th in total yardage per game at 282.6 per game, along with just 17.8 points per game. They’re 28th in passing and rushing yardage, with 202.8 and 79.8 per game. On the road, the Texans have been pitiful with only 205.5 yards recorded per game.

Conversely, the Colts have 345 yards per game at Lucas Oil Stadium, while the Texans have conceded over 400 yards a game. Wentz is coming off a nice performance with over 400 yards passing in Baltimore. A trip back home to face the Texans should only help his confidence even more.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends:


  • 4-12-1 ATS in their previous 17 games after covering the spread
  • 1-9 overall in their previous ten games
  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games versus the Colts
  • 3-16 overall in their previous 19 games on the road versus the Colts
  • 2-6 ATS in their previous eight games in October
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games as an underdog


  • 4-2 ATS in their previous six games
  • 16-3 overall in their previous 19 games versus the Texans
  • 7-3 ATS in their previous ten games in October
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games at Lucas Oil Stadium
  • OVER is 12-6 in their previous 18 games

The Colts’ Wentz passed for 402 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Ravens on the road. In his last two games, Wentz has connected for 668 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions. He was dealing with sprained ankles earlier in the year, but appears to be over that and is comfortable in the Colts’ offense.

After blowing a 22-3 lead last week, the Texans are a good opponent to see at home. They missed multiple field goals, including a potential game-winner at the end of regulation. This one against the Texans probably doesn’t come down to a field goal. The Colts should clear the Texans well before it comes down to a field goal attempt.

Mills likely turns his great game against the Patriots last week into a bad outing versus the Colts in Indianapolis. He’s a rookie that is going up and down this season. You have to take the bad with the good when it comes to a third-round rookie. I like the Colts in a 30-14 game to win and cover the 10 points.


Texans vs. Colts Pick