Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL Week 5 MNF Pick – October 11

Two squads with deep ties to the city of Baltimore will lock horns during Week 5’s Monday Night Football, as the Ravens play host to the struggling Indianapolis Colts.

These AFC foes met last season, with Baltimore securing a routine victory. Indianapolis struggled to contain the dual-threat ability of Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson, something that bears watching again come Monday night.

Though the Colts enter as a 1-3 squad, they’ve shown flashes that they can be much better. In a wide-open AFC South they are by no means out of it just yet, but this is a team that needs to start producing. Last week they soundly defeated Miami, with Jonathan Taylor and a banged-up Carson Wentz again leading the way.

Baltimore meanwhile has weathered their injury storm quite well, dashing out to a 3-1 record in a tight AFC North. They trounced an impressive Broncos squad in Week 4, and Lamar Jackson threw for over 300 yards in the process. With a stellar, veteran stop unit, and explosiveness on offense – the Ravens remain one of the NFL’s best.

For further game analysis, as well as live odds, betting data, and the latest trends, keep on reading below for our prediction to close out a busy Week 5 of NFL action. It’s the Ravens vs. Colts on Monday night, and we’ve got all of your betting needs covered right here at The Sports Geek. Enjoy!

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Live Odds & Betting History

*These odds are provided by

  • Indianapolis Colts +7 (-110)
  • Baltimore Ravens -7 (-110)
  • Indianapolis Colts (+280)
  • Baltimore Ravens (-350)
Total Points:
  • Over 46 (-110)
  • Under 46 (-110)
Overall Record 1-3-0 3-1-0
ATS Record 2-2-0 2-2-0
Home/Away Record 1-1-0 1-0-0
Points Per Game 20.8 26.3
Points Against Per Game 24.3 23.0
Passing Yards Per Game 214.0 255.5
Rushing Yards Per Game 112.0 164.5

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction

The strength of Baltimore’s offense has been their running game. It’s been that way for years now, and whether it’s Lamar Jackson, or their rotating cast of running backs – they should be able to find good success vs. the Colts on Monday night.

Indianapolis has struggled to stifle opposing rushers so far in 2021, and though Baltimore could be down some blockers along their O-Line, look for either Latavius Murray or Ty’Son Williams to find holes, and keep the chains moving. Of course, Lamar Jackson has gashed the Colts on the ground before, and after a tame week last time out vs. Denver, those legs should be ready to run on Monday Night Football.

This should open things up through the air for Baltimore, who are coming off a great passing game vs. the Broncos. Jackson was crisp and accurate from the pocket, and despite the fact that Indy does boast some good coverage in their defensive backfield, the Ravens’ offensive line will allow him time and space to operate, and pick the Colts apart.

The Colts seem to be a little bit like a house of cards at the moment, especially when you consider Carson Wentz’s fragility. He’s clearly injured, likely to be playing on two bad ankles – and his mobility is shot. Still though he’s done some good things of late, but he’s yet to face a defense like Baltimore’s.

Expect the Ravens to realize this and prepare to blitz him with regularity. Wentz is best when he has time to make reads downfield, and if the Ravens pressure and hurry him – the Colts could be in trouble.

Indianapolis also enters with big offensive line concerns of their own. Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith were injured last week, and without that tandem it’s going to impact their run blocking for Jonathan Taylor, and pass protection for Carson Wentz. It’s tough to see how the Colts keep pace in Baltimore.

Colts vs. Ravens Trends To Know:

  • Colts are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
  • Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • Over is 7-0 in Colts last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 home games.
  • Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Baltimore.

Though the Colts have fared well against the spread of late in Baltimore, this isn’t a matchup that suits Indianapolis on Monday night.  Without key blockers, the Ravens’ defense should be able to bully the Colts at the line of scrimmage.  Lamar Jackson is in elite form once again, and Baltimore traditionally dominates inferior teams at home. At just a touchdown spread, Baltimore should cruise on Monday night.

My Pick
Ravens -7
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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